西北地区县域脆弱性时空格局演变

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2017.04.002

Abstract

Abstract:

As one of the most important scientific research propositions in the field of geographic studies, the research on coupled human-environment system has become an important part of the study of human-environment relationship and regional sustainable development. This study constructed a human-environment system evaluating model of vulnerability in counties of northwest China and its spatial and temporal change based on statistical data, meteorological data, remote sensing data, and spatial vector data in 2003, 2008, and 2013 for 316 counties and districts, using the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) method and coefficient of variation analysis. The results show that: (1) Vulnerability index values of counties in the south are higher than in the north and the west higher than the east. The large and medium-sized cities have a significant impact on surrounding counties and have formed some low vulnerability circles centered around them. Meanwhile, these circles are gradually connected to become large scale low vulnerability areas. (2) The vulnerable levels of four subsystems in northwest China also reveal some regional differentiation patterns. The spatial pattern of vulnerability in social and economic subsystems is congregated and has changed significantly. The spatial pattern of vulnerability of resource-environment and support of policy subsystems tends to be fragmented and stable. (3) The vulnerability diversity of the human-environment system slowly increased in northwest China, the vulnerability diversity of social system first increased and then dropped, the vulnerability diversity of both the economic and the resource-environment systems tends to fall, and the policy support systems are significantly different and stable among different regions. (4) Under policy guidance and support, resource exploitation, economic development, environmental quality, and human wellbeing change becomes coupled, which influence social development and stability. Meanwhile, these two factors react upon economic development, environmental quality, resource exploitation, and policy making. This article deconstructs spatial and temporal changes in northwest China from the perspective of "vulnerability" and aims to provide a theoretical reference and practical application for socioeconomic development in northwest China.

Key words: human-environment system vulnerability, fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, regional differences, northwest China

Daming LU, Yuzhong SHI, Wenlong LI, Xinjun YANG. Spatiotemporal change of vulnerability in counties of northwest China[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2017, 36(4): 404-415.

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目标层	准则层	指标层	单位	权重	指标性质
社会子系统脆弱性SV	暴露—敏感性S1	农业人口比重	%	0.2039	正指标
		人口密度	人/km²	0.4560	正指标
		在校学生比例	%	0.3401	负指标
	适应能力R1	乡村从业人口比重	%	0.5537	负指标
		每百户拥有通讯设备数量	部/百户	0.1563	负指标
		万人拥有医疗床位数	床/万人	0.2900	负指标
经济子系统脆弱性EV	暴露—敏感性S2	第一产业增加值占GDP比重	%	0.2537	正指标
		第三产业增加值占GDP比重	%	0.3328	负指标
		规模以上工业总产值占GDP比重	%	0.4135	负指标
	适应能力R2	人均GDP	万元/人	0.4097	负指标
		到最近城市距离	km	0.2491	正指标
		人均居民储蓄存款余额	万元/人	0.3412	负指标
资源环境子系统	暴露—敏感性S3	水网密度	km/km²	0.2101	负指标
脆弱性REV		干燥度指数	—	0.2971	正指标
		NDVI指数	—	0.4928	负指标
	适应能力R3	单位面积粮食产量	t/hm²	0.3332	负指标
		人均耕地	hm²/人	0.3648	负指标
		人均肉类总产量	t/人	0.3020	负指标
政策子系统扶持	暴露—敏感性S4	单位从业人员数比例	%	0.3389	正指标
性PS		社会福利收养性单位平均床位数	床/个	0.2240	正指标
		财政收支比	%	0.4371	正指标
	适应能力R4	固定资产投资额	万元	0.3531	正指标
		到最近铁路距离	km	0.3171	负指标
		到最近国道距离	km	0.3298	负指标

指数分级	微度脆弱(扶持)	低度脆弱(扶持)	中度脆弱(扶持)	高度脆弱(扶持)	极度脆弱(扶持)
人地系统脆弱性指数	<6.097	6.098~10.463	10.464~16.487	16.488~26.111	>26.112
社会脆弱性指数	<0.989	0.99~1.424	1.425~1.984	1.985~5.609	>5.610
经济脆弱性指数	<2.377	2.378~3.818	3.819~9.444	9.445~21.235	>21.236
资源脆弱性指数	<2.480	2.481~3.748	3.749~5.910	5.911~12.239	>12.240
政策扶持性指数	<0.132	0.133~0.260	0.261~0.441	0.442~0.747	>0.748

变异系数	2003年	2008年	2013年
人地系统脆弱性差异度	0.582	0.680	0.695
社会脆弱性差异度	0.308	0.507	0.280
经济脆弱性差异度	1.003	0.494	0.389
资源环境脆弱性差异度	0.802	0.566	0.492
政策扶持性差异度	0.810	0.923	9.367
政策扶持性差异度(除西安主城区外)	0.800	0.900	0.895

Spatiotemporal change of vulnerability in counties of northwest China

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