PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY ›› 2017, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (1): 34-45.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2017.01.004

• Special Issue:Coordinated Development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Parameterization and system dynamics modeling of regional population regulation policies in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

Xiaoqian LIU1,2(), Ting MA2, Tao PEI2,*(), Xiangdong WANG2,3, Yunyan DU2, Chuanjie XIE2   

  1. 1. College of Applied Arts and Science, Beijing Union University, Beijing 100191, China
    2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    3. College of Management, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
  • Received:2016-12-01 Online:2017-01-20 Published:2017-01-20
  • Contact: Tao PEI E-mail:liuxq@lreis.ac.cn;peit@lreis.ac.cn
  • Supported by:
    Major Projects of the National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41590845;China Postdoctoral Science Foundation, No.2015M581160

Abstract:

As a most influential measure to achieve regional sustainable development and transformation strategies, coordinated regulation and control policies are drawing increasing attentions from scientists and policymakers. It is important to understand the mechanisms of policy performance and systematically estimate the effects before making regional development decisions. However, a number of problems have arisen during the formulation and implementation of current policies, such as lack of specific targeted policy orientation, unclear policy maneuverability, uncertain policy interaction mechanisms, and vague policy impacts, which all hindered the effective implementation of policy objectives. The crux of the problem lies in the lack of policy parameters that can bridge the gap between directive policy objectives and specific management practices, and between specific policy measures and system responses. Thus, this study proposes a framework of policy parameterization, which includes four steps: refining policy indicators, quantifying policy parameters, identifying regulatory regions, and modeling. Taking the regional population regulation and control of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region as an example, this study implemented the policy parameterization framework in the system dynamic (SD) model of population regulation and control of the study area. The results show that: (1) The policy parameterization method has well represented the policy functional process by integrating with the SD model. (2) The trend of population regulation changes in the case study area indicates that population migration control policy had limited effect on the population dynamics. Only by improving the regional population carrying capacity, system sustainability can be achieved. (3) The parameterization method is able to specify policy implementation practices by providing specific indicators and their regulation intervals, and further providing a basis for scenario analysis and strategy optimization. Thus it can be a useful tool for directing regional regulatory policy making.

Key words: regional coordinated development, policy parameterization, population regulation and control, system dynamic model, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region