PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY ›› 2016, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (11): 1305-1316.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2016.11.001

• Orginal Article •     Next Articles

Influence of the implementation of the universal two-child policy on demographic structure and population spatial distribution in China

Kaiyong WANG1,2(), Jun DING1,2,3, Fuyuan WANG1,2,3   

  1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    2. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    3. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Online:2016-11-25 Published:2016-11-25
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41371178, No.41471126


From the policy allowing couples to have a second child if one parent is an only child to universal two-child policy, fertility policy in China had changed in succession, which had caused extensive social concerns and would have an influence on Chinese demographics in the future. This article projects the trend of total population and demographic structure in China after implementing the universal two-child policy by queue group element method from the demographic perspective, and analyzes the influence of the policy on Chinese population spatial distribution from a geographic perspective. The results show that: (1) Implementing a universal two-child policy can reduce the declining trend of the total population, aging of the population, and dropping of working age population. (2) Eastern China has the highest population density, followed by the central, northeastern, and western regions. Implementing a universal two-child policy can increase the population density of the area to the southeast of the Hu Line, but there will be little change to the northwest of the Hu Line. The current population spatial distribution pattern will continue to exist. (3) Based on the provincial-level annual change intensities of population density, China can be divided into rapid population growth zone, medium-speed population growth zone, slow population growth zone, and stable population zone.

Key words: universal two-child policy, demographic structure, spatial pattern, influence, China