全面二孩政策对中国人口结构及区域人口空间格局的影响

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2016.11.001

Abstract

Abstract:

From the policy allowing couples to have a second child if one parent is an only child to universal two-child policy, fertility policy in China had changed in succession, which had caused extensive social concerns and would have an influence on Chinese demographics in the future. This article projects the trend of total population and demographic structure in China after implementing the universal two-child policy by queue group element method from the demographic perspective, and analyzes the influence of the policy on Chinese population spatial distribution from a geographic perspective. The results show that: (1) Implementing a universal two-child policy can reduce the declining trend of the total population, aging of the population, and dropping of working age population. (2) Eastern China has the highest population density, followed by the central, northeastern, and western regions. Implementing a universal two-child policy can increase the population density of the area to the southeast of the Hu Line, but there will be little change to the northwest of the Hu Line. The current population spatial distribution pattern will continue to exist. (3) Based on the provincial-level annual change intensities of population density, China can be divided into rapid population growth zone, medium-speed population growth zone, slow population growth zone, and stable population zone.

Key words: universal two-child policy, demographic structure, spatial pattern, influence, China

Kaiyong WANG, Jun DING, Fuyuan WANG. Influence of the implementation of the universal two-child policy on demographic structure and population spatial distribution in China[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2016, 35(11): 1305-1316.

Figures/Tables 11

Tab.1

Tab.2

Fig.1

Tab.3

Fig.2

Tab.4

Type of change of provincial-level population spatial distribution pattern, 2016-2030"

人口空间格局变化类型	划分标准/(人/km²)	省级行政区
人口快速变化区	$S D n$ >25	上海、河南、广东、安徽、北京、山东、天津、江苏、河北
人口中速变化区	15< $S D n$ <25	浙江、福建、湖南、湖北、重庆、江西、海南、山西
人口低速变化区	5< $S D n$ <15	辽宁、广西、贵州、陕西、四川、云南、宁夏、吉林
人口平稳区	0< $S D n$ <5	黑龙江、甘肃、内蒙古、新疆、青海、西藏

Tab.4

Fig.3

Fig.4

Fig.5

Fig.6

Fig.7

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估计指标	2016年分布比例20%	2017年分布比例35%	2018年分布比例25%	2019年分布比例20%
出生人口增量/万
下限	886.34	1551.10	1107.93	886.34
上限	1148.17	2009.30	1435.21	1148.17
均值	1017.26	1780.20	1271.57	1017.26
出生人口总量/万
下限	2586.34	3251.10	2807.93	2586.34
上限	2848.17	3709.30	3135.21	2848.17
均值	2717.26	3480.20	2971.57	2717.26
总和生育率
下限	2.57	3.24	2.79	2.57
上限	2.84	3.69	3.12	2.84
均值	2.71	3.46	2.96	2.71

年份	总人口/亿
年份	下限	上限	均值
2016	13.906	13.933	13.919
2017	14.135	14.207	14.171
2018	14.316	14.420	14.368
2019	14.471	14.601	14.536
2020	14.558	14.688	14.623
2021	14.641	14.772	14.707
2022	14.722	14.852	14.787
2023	14.798	14.928	14.863
2024	14.871	15.001	14.936
2025	14.940	15.070	15.005
2026	15.005	15.135	15.070
2027	15.066	15.196	15.131
2028	15.123	15.253	15.188
2029	15.176	15.306	15.241
2030	15.225	15.355	15.290

年龄段/岁	2020年		2025年		2030年
年龄段/岁	人数/万	比例/%	人数/万	比例/%	人数/万	比例/%
0~4	13765.64	9.414	9660.62	6.438	9660.62	6.318
5~9	8195.40	5.605	13728.95	9.150	9632.22	6.300
10~14	7520.65	5.143	8183.45	5.454	13708.98	8.966
15~19	7066.46	4.832	7508.55	5.004	8170.32	5.343
20~24	7462.54	5.103	7051.19	4.699	7492.26	4.900
25~29	9939.84	6.798	7442.09	4.960	7031.93	4.599
30~34	12663.87	8.660	9906.14	6.602	7416.91	4.851
35~39	10020.03	6.852	12604.89	8.401	9859.42	6.448
40~44	9601.92	6.566	9951.32	6.632	12519.25	8.188
45~49	11597.88	7.931	9501.36	6.332	9847.21	6.440
50~54	12146.92	8.307	11408.42	7.603	9347.00	6.113
55~59	10146.32	6.939	11854.88	7.901	11130.52	7.279
60~64	7384.40	5.050	9769.01	6.511	11405.11	7.459
65~69	7338.35	5.018	6915.43	4.609	9173.44	6.000
70~74	4929.23	3.371	6568.52	4.378	6169.42	4.035
75~79	3040.78	2.079	4082.54	2.721	5436.40	3.555
80~84	1963.15	1.343	2194.18	1.462	2955.39	1.933
85~89	1013.50	0.693	1149.45	0.766	1287.01	0.842
90~94	344.18	0.235	440.50	0.294	496.65	0.325
95+	88.43	0.061	125.10	0.083	161.73	0.106

Influence of the implementation of the universal two-child policy on demographic structure and population spatial distribution in China

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