基于CR-BDI模型的农户作物种植行为模拟——以陕西省米脂县姜兴庄为例

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2016.10.009

Abstract

Abstract:

At present, the research of agent-based modeling (ABM), which considers farming households' bounded rational behavior and uses simulation platform to simulate farming households' land use behavior, has become a focus of land use and land cover change simulation. Based on the beliefs-desires-intention (BDI) model, this study constructed a bounded rationality-resources (CR-BDI) model. A case study was conducted for Jiangxingzhuang Village of Mizhi County in Shaanxi Province. To verify the effectiveness of the CR-BDI model, a comparison between CR-BDI and BDI modeling results was performed. A number of observations and conclusions can be drawn: (1) Compared to the BDI model, a more realistic representation of farming households' decision-making process was provided by the CR-BDI model. The simulation accuracy of the CR-BDI model of 2014 is 93.22%, 8.48% higher than that of the traditional BDI model. The spatial distribution accuracy of the CR-BDI model output is 10.1% higher than that of the traditional BDI model. The simulated results of all crops (except scallion) in the CR-BDI model were of higher accuracy than in the BDI model. In 2015, the spatial accuracy of the CR-BDI model output is 78.8%, 9.6% higher than that of the traditional BDI model. (2) The indicator of CR is suitable for reflecting the bounded rationality of farming households, and matches the actual planting decision of farming households better. (3) The NetLogo platform is useful for representing farming households' land use behavior and provides a new way to research land use and land cover change.

Key words: household behaviors, land use, planting, bounded rationality, NetLogo platform, simulation, CR-BDI model, Jiangxingzhuang Village of Mizhi County in Shaanxi Province

Yanni WANG, Hai CHEN, Shixiong SONG, Yajun MEI, Xin WEN. Simulation of households' planting behavior based on a CR-BDI model: Case study of Jiangxingzhuang Village of Mizhi County in Shaanxi Province[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2016, 35(10): 1258-1268.

Figures/Tables 12

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References 20

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等级	1	2	3	4	5
距离	0~99	99~220	220~330	330~455	455~1400
海拔高度	971~990	990~1020	1020~1033	1033~1058	1058~1110

农户序号	玉米	土豆	红葱	杂粮
1	0.36	0.33	0.31	0.00
2	0.32	0.25	0.38	0.05
3	0.65	0.19	0.16	0.00
4	0.46	0.11	0.25	0.18
5	0.21	0.47	0.22	0.10
6	0.23	0.40	0.23	0.14
7	0.17	0.15	0.54	0.14
8	0.18	0.17	0.53	0.12
9	0.23	0.12	0.65	0.00
村庄整体均值	0.30	0.22	0.36	0.12

农户序号	能力(经济效益)指数					资源(劳动力)指数
农户序号	玉米		土豆	红葱	杂粮	玉米	土豆	红葱	杂粮
1	0.15	0.16	0.15	0.00		0.21	0.27	0.20	0.28
2	0.09	0.12	0.15	0.10		0.43	0.53	0.41	0.56
3	0.16	0.14	0.16	0.00		0.21	0.27	0.20	0.28
4	0.12	0.12	0.14	0.08		0.21	0.27	0.20	0.28
5	0.09	0.13	0.15	0.11		0.21	0.27	0.20	0.28
6	0.09	0.14	0.16	0.10		0.21	0.27	0.20	0.28
7	0.12	0.13	0.17	0.09		0.21	0.27	0.20	0.28
8	0.10	0.13	0.16	0.11		0.21	0.27	0.20	0.28
9	0.15	0.15	0.19	0.00		0.21	0.27	0.20	0.28
村庄整体均值	0.12	0.13	0.16	0.09		0.21	0.25	0.20	0.27

农户序号	玉米	土豆	红葱	杂粮
1	0.14	0.11	0.13	0.00
2	0.20	0.14	0.17	0.04
3	0.29	0.06	0.08	0.00
4	0.16	0.06	0.12	0.06
5	0.09	0.13	0.07	0.03
6	0.11	0.12	0.07	0.05
7	0.07	0.05	0.22	0.06
8	0.09	0.03	0.14	0.06
9	0.05	0.03	0.08	0.00
村庄整体均值	0.13	0.10	0.16	0.04

农户序号	玉米	土豆	红葱	杂粮	农户失误率合计/%
1	0.37(-0.03)	0.29(0.02)	0.28(0.01)	0.00(0.00)	6.38
2	0.55(-0.05)	0.40(0.02)	0.44(0.07)	0.05(-0.02)	10.61
3	0.54(0.05)	0.12(-0.02)	0.08(-0.03)	0.00(0.00)	13.89
4	0.71(0.06)	0.09(-0.05)	0.35(0.04)	0.15(-0.05)	15.75
5	0.34(-0.06)	0.67(0.02)	0.39(0.06)	0.05(-0.02)	10.06
6	0.49(-0.04)	0.63(-0.04)	0.47(0.10)	0.12(-0.02)	12.59
7	0.14(0.03)	0.07(-0.04)	0.54(0.07)	0.08(-0.05)	23.53
8	0.17(-0.05)	0.04(-0.02)	0.52(0.09)	0.07(-0.02)	23.38
9	0.25(-0.02)	0.08(-0.05)	0.57(0.07)	0.00(0.00)	14.58
村庄失误面积累计	1.21	0.96	1.86	0.76	6.78

Simulation of households' planting behavior based on a CR-BDI model: Case study of Jiangxingzhuang Village of Mizhi County in Shaanxi Province

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序号	玉米	土豆	红葱	杂粮	农户失误率合计/%
1	0.35(-0.06)	0.28(0.02)	0.31(0.04)	0.00(0.00)	12.77
2	0.50(-0.10)	0.46(0.08)	0.35(-0.02)	0.11(0.04)	18.18
3	0.42(-0.11)	0.20(0.07)	0.10(0.04)	0.00(0.00)	30.50
4	0.52(-0.16)	0.27(0.13)	0.33(0.08)	0.15(-0.05)	33.07
5	0.42(0.02)	0.50(-0.17)	0.40(0.06)	0.16(0.09)	22.97
6	0.56(0.03)	0.50(-0.15)	0.33(0.06)	0.20(0.06)	18.87
7	0.20(0.07)	0.20(0.09)	0.35(-0.12)	0.10(-0.04)	37.64
8	0.15(-0.05)	0.05(0.01)	0.51(0.11)	0.06(-0.07)	31.17
9	0.20(-0.10)	0.26(0.13)	0.50(-0.03)	0.00(0.00)	27.08
村庄失误面积累计	2.12	2.20	1.42	1.57	15.26

自然条件	CR-BDI模型						BDI模型
自然条件	玉米		土豆	红葱	杂粮	合计	玉米	土豆	红葱	杂粮	合计
31 + 41	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.0	0.8		0.4	0.8	0.5	0.0	1.7
22 + 32	0.6	1.5	2.2	0.9	5.2		1.2	2.1	1.8	1.2	6.3
23 + 33	0.5	1.7	2.6	0.7	5.5		1.0	2.5	2.3	1.2	7.0
44 + 45	0.3	0.7	1.0	1.4	3.4		0.7	1.1	0.9	2.1	4.8
整体失误	1.6	4.2	6.1	3.0			3.3	6.5	5.5	4.5

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