中国的地区企业进入与退出关联研究

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2016.03.009

Abstract

Abstract:

This article investigates the interdependence mechanism between firm entry and exit, which can be categorized into multiplier and competition effects. First, we present the evolutionary process of the spatial distribution of manufacturing enterprises from 1998 to 2013 that indicates the spatiotemporal trend of industry dynamics. The spatial pattern has experienced dramatic changes, demonstrating an agglomeration tendency of same types of enterprises. Using difference-GMM model we conducted a regression analysis on a dynamic panel to test how regional entry and exit rates are affected by previous exit and entry rates. We found different influences of previous exit and entry. Entry rates are determined by competition effect while exit rates are determined by multiplier effect. The impact on entry is delivered immediately and decreases monotonically. However, a delayed effect exists in the impact on exit, which reaches the peak after two years. Further, we found different interdependence relationships in different regions. Competition effect is more intense in eastern coastal cities. In the eastern area, higher exit rate leads to more entries in the next stage, which proves that firm exit is a market action optimizing resource allocation while a higher entry rate will restrain future entry due to the high industry saturation. On the other hand, in the western area where industrial development is only beginning, a certain amount of exits will aggravate the exit rate in the next stage. Finally, the article examines policy implications of the interdependence dynamics. Regions under different economy background should adopt different policies to realize the sustainable development of industries. The eastern areas should set industry entry threshold criteria and lower exit barriers of inefficient enterprises. These actions can facilitate the working of market mechanism and result in creative destruction to promote industrial restructuring and upgrading. The western area should adopt the policy to attract more entries and protect existing firms in order to prevent a butterfly effect of enterprise exit.

Key words: manufacturing enterprises above designated size, multiplier effect, competition effect, difference-GMM, dynamic panel, firm entry and exit, China

Yunxiong LI, Yonghuan REN, Canfei HE. Interdependencies in the dynamics of regional firm entry and exit in China[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2016, 35(3): 349-357.

Figures/Tables 8

Fig.1

Tab.1

Excepted impact of multiplier and competition effects"

企业动态关系	乘数效应	竞争效应
$? E i, t ? E i, t - m$	+	-
$? X i, t ? E i, t - m$	-	+
$? E i, t ? X i, t - m$	+	-
$? X i, t ? X i, t - m$	-	+

Tab.1

Fig.2

Fig.3

Fig.4

Tab.2

Tab.3

Estimation results of firm entry model"

变量	模型1：全国	模型2：东部	模型3：中部	模型4：西部
$E t - 1$	-0.314^**(0.0827)	-0.483^**(0.0765)	-0.351^**(0.1)	0.0704(0.182)
$E t - 2$	-0.244^**(0.0749)	-0.413^**(0.0752)	-0.277^**(0.0763)	-0.0376(0.126)
$E t - 3$	-0.125^*(0.0604)	-0.285^**(0.0721)	-0.186^**(0.0701)	-0.0448(0.091)
$X t - 1$	0.0227(0.0182)	0.0557(0.0815)	0.0268^**(0.0071)	-0.179^*(0.0804)
$X t - 2$	-0.0148(0.0248)	0.0586(0.0922)	-0.00487(0.00473)	-0.0620^**(0.0174)
$X t - 3$	-0.000961(0.026)	0.358^**(0.0834)	-0.00637^*(0.00278)	-0.0391^**(0.014)
常数项	0.171^**(0.0219)	0.202^**(0.0279)	0.182^**(0.0233)	0.129^**(0.032)
Arellano-Bond AR(2)	-0.314[0.7535]	-1.12[0.258]	-0.339[0.735]	-0.007[0.994]
样本数	1647	580	537	530

Tab.3

Tab.4

Estimation results of firm exit model"

变量	模型4：全国	模型6：东部	模型7：中部	模型8：西部
$E t - 1$	-0.142^*(0.0681)	0.0172(0.0921)	-0.173(0.0969)	-0.297^**(0.0729)
$E t - 2$	-0.337^**(0.0648)	-0.132^*(0.0618)	-0.224^*(0.112)	-0.514^**(0.117)
$E t - 3$	-0.167^*(0.072)	-0.0874(0.0608)	-0.176^*(0.0731)	-0.330^*(0.137)
$X t - 1$	-0.0218(0.016)	0.0819(0.0598)	-0.0158^*(0.00804)	-0.0374(0.09)
$X t - 2$	-0.00907(0.0182)	0.0807(0.0491)	0.0232^**(0.00819)	-0.0251(0.0404)
$X t - 3$	0.00555(0.0181)	0.210^**(0.0449)	-0.00268(0.0147)	-0.00197(0.0223)
常数项	0.149^**(0.023)	0.0539^*(0.0241)	0.141^**(0.0244)	0.218^**(0.0447)
Arellano-Bond AR(2)	-0.3658[0.7145]	-1.0564[0.291]	-1.9801[0.048]	-1.13[0.257]
样本数	1647	580	537	530

Tab.4

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Interdependencies in the dynamics of regional firm entry and exit in China

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References 29

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时段	地区企业进入退出类型	全国341个地级市/%	东部113个地级市/%	中部121个地级市/%	西部107个地级市/%
1998-1999	低进入低退出	35	46	22	31
	低进入高退出	23	12	26	33
	高进入低退出	23	22	24	23
	高进入高退出	20	20	27	13
2006-2007	低进入低退出	43	55	42	30
	低进入高退出	13	4	9	27
	高进入低退出	35	38	44	23
	高进入高退出	9	4	5	20
2012-2013	低进入低退出	32	44	33	17
	低进入高退出	25	23	26	25
	高进入低退出	32	27	39	33
	高进入高退出	11	6	2	25