山洪泥石流风险评估与风险管理理论与方法

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2016.02.001

Abstract

Abstract:

Debris flows and flash floods are widely distributed mountain hazards in China. Effective hazard mitigation and prevention require understanding of hazards formation mechanisms and their potential risks. This article elaborates on the formation mechanism, risk analysis, and risk management of debris flows and flash floods. Surface runoff and material supply volume incensement, hazard scale amplification due to outburst of multiple channel blockages and bed erosion as hazard formation mechanism are discussed. Base on the dynamic process of debris flows and flash floods as well as vulnerability assessment of elements at risk, methods of risk assessment and mapping are proposed. Comprehensive engineering and non-engineering measures for hazards control shall be guided by the result of risk analysis that identifies the hazardous level of debris flows and flash floods and incorporates the vulnerability of different elements at risk. Finally, this article discusses strategies when facing risk of these hazards and puts forward a risk management system that involves the participation of local communities.

Key words: debris flow, flash flood, hazard analysis, vulnerability, risk assessment, risk management, dynamic process

Peng CUI, Qiang ZOU. Theory and method of risk assessment and risk management of debris flows and flash floods[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2016, 35(2): 137-147.

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风险编号	风险等级	空间分布与危害特征
I	微度风险	山洪、泥石流分布极少,规模很小,其危险度与易损度均很低,受危害导致损毁的风险很小,一般不影响正常生产和生活。
II	低度风险	山洪、泥石流分布少,规模不大,承灾体易损度较低,遭受轻度危害,破坏小,灾害综合风险值较低,需要采取一定预防措施。
III	中度风险	山洪、泥石流分布较广泛,规模较大,承灾体易损度较高,灾害危害较重,灾害风险水平为中等,需布设灾害防治措施以保障生产和生活安全。
IV	高度风险	山洪、泥石流分布广泛,规模大,破坏力强,危险性与易损度均较高,风险很高,频繁受灾,严重影响生产和生活,应实施综合减灾工程,加强风险管理。

Theory and method of risk assessment and risk management of debris flows and flash floods

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