IPCC AR5全球气候模式对1996-2005年中国气温模拟精度评价

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2015.10.003

Abstract

Abstract:

This article evaluates the precision of the temperature simulated by nine IPCC AR5 (the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) GCMs (Global Climate Models) and the multi-model ensemble (MME), based on the observed temperature of 660 stations in China from 1996 to 2005. The results show that the correlation coefficients between the average daily temperature simulated by GCMs and station observations in China during 1996-2005 were very high, all above 0.86. The precision of the simulated average daily temperature in the southeast by the 10 models was higher than that in the west, judged by the lower Biases, mean relative errors (MREs), mean absolute errors (MAEs), and root mean square errors (RMSEs) in the southeast as compared to those in the west. The precision of the simulated temperature by IPSL-CM5A-LR, MRI-CGCM3, and NorESM1-M was poorer than that of the others—specially, the Biases, MREs, and RMSEs of the simulation result by IPSL-CM5A-LR , the Biases and RMSEs of the simulation result by MRI-CGCM3, and MREs and RMSEs of the simulation result by NorESM1-M, were larger. Taken into account the Biases, MREs, MAEs, and RMSEs, the simulation precision of MME was the highest.

Key words: IPCC AR5, Global Climate Models, temperature, precision, daily scale

Zhen SUN, Shaofeng JIA, Aifeng LV, Wenbin ZHU, Yanchun GAO. Assesment on precision of temperature simulated by the IPCC AR5 GCMs in China, 1996-2005[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2015, 34(10): 1229-1240.

Figures/Tables 7

Tab.1

Fig.1

Fig.2

Tab.2

Precision evaluation results of average daily temperature simulated by the IPCC AR5 GCMs in China/%, 1996-2005"

Models	$r > 0.98$	$r < 0.92$	$\| Bias \| < 0.5$	$\| Bias \| > 1.5$	$MRE < 0.2$	$MRE > 0.6$	$MAE < 2$	$MAE > 4$	$RMSE < 2$	$RMSE > 6$
BCC	67.9	0.9	70.2	6.2	70.9	1.1	24.5	31.4	11.7	16.4
BNU	44.8	0	73.9	5.6	79.4	0.9	31.7	24.5	18.5	12.4
CanESM2	56.4	1.2	77.4	6.2	82.9	1.1	38.8	23.6	14.5	14.2
CCSM4	68.5	0.3	81.7	7.3	82.9	2.9	40.8	19.8	16.5	11.4
MPI-ESM-LR	63.8	3.0	82.3	7.1	82.1	2.9	54.7	16.1	31.2	10.3
MRI-CGCM3	68.2	0	69.2	10.8	78.6	3.5	16.1	28.8	8.0	17.1
NorESM1-M	69.1	0.3	71.4	7.7	76.5	2.3	17.1	30.8	7.4	17.6
GISS-E2-R	36.8	0.5	82.3	7.0	73.8	3.9	33.5	22.4	13.2	14.5
IPSL-CM5A-LR	55.5	0.2	62.1	9.7	74.5	3.6	26.1	36.1	10.5	20.0
MME	88.0	0	78.6	6.4	80.6	1.8	47.9	22.0	37.0	12.0

Tab.2

Fig.3

Fig.4

Fig.5

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模式名称	国家	研究机构	空间分辨率(纬向格点数×经向格点数)
BCC	中国	国家气候中心	64×128
BNU	中国	北京师范大学	64×128
CanESM2	加拿大	CCCma	64×128
CCSM4	美国	NCAR	192×288
GISS-E2-R	美国	GISS/ NASA	90×144
IPSL-CM5A-LR	法国	IPSL	96×96
MPI-ESM-LR^*	德国	MPI	96×192
MRI-CGCM3^*	日本	MRI	160×320
NorESM1-M	挪威	NCC	96×144

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Assesment on precision of temperature simulated by the IPCC AR5 GCMs in China, 1996-2005

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