PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY ›› 2015, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (10): 1229-1240.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2015.10.003

• Climate Change • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Assesment on precision of temperature simulated by the IPCC AR5 GCMs in China, 1996-2005

Zhen SUN1,2, Shaofeng JIA1,*(), Aifeng LV1, Wenbin ZHU1,2, Yanchun GAO1   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2015-03-01 Accepted:2015-05-01 Online:2015-10-20 Published:2015-10-20
  • Contact: Shaofeng JIA


This article evaluates the precision of the temperature simulated by nine IPCC AR5 (the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) GCMs (Global Climate Models) and the multi-model ensemble (MME), based on the observed temperature of 660 stations in China from 1996 to 2005. The results show that the correlation coefficients between the average daily temperature simulated by GCMs and station observations in China during 1996-2005 were very high, all above 0.86. The precision of the simulated average daily temperature in the southeast by the 10 models was higher than that in the west, judged by the lower Biases, mean relative errors (MREs), mean absolute errors (MAEs), and root mean square errors (RMSEs) in the southeast as compared to those in the west. The precision of the simulated temperature by IPSL-CM5A-LR, MRI-CGCM3, and NorESM1-M was poorer than that of the others—specially, the Biases, MREs, and RMSEs of the simulation result by IPSL-CM5A-LR , the Biases and RMSEs of the simulation result by MRI-CGCM3, and MREs and RMSEs of the simulation result by NorESM1-M, were larger. Taken into account the Biases, MREs, MAEs, and RMSEs, the simulation precision of MME was the highest.

Key words: IPCC AR5, Global Climate Models, temperature, precision, daily scale