PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY ›› 2015, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (2): 217-.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2015.02.010

• Orginal Article • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Urban expansion simulation and analysis in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

Cuiling LIU1(), Ying LONG2()   

  1. 1. Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of the People's Republic of China, Beijing 100835, China
    2. Beijing Institute of City Planning, Beijing 100045, China
  • Online:2015-03-23 Published:2015-03-23


In order to predict future urban layout in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region (JJJ), we developed a BUDEM-JJJ model on the basis of the Beijing urban development model (BUDEM). BUDEM, based on prevalent urban growth theory and constrained cellular automatic, was developed in 2008 for analyzing and simulating urban growth for the Beijing Metropolitan Area(BMA). It is proved that the model is capable of analyzing historical urban growth mechanisms and predicting future urban growth for metropolitan areas in China. In this research, we extended the study of BUDEM from the BMA to the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region (JJJ), via replacing the datasets of the model and making necessary adjustments to the parameters. In BUDEM-JJJ, the parameters include minimum distance to the center of Beijing (f_ctr_bj), minimum distance to the centers of Tianjin and Shijiazhuang (f_ctr_tjsjz), minimum distance to the centers of prefecture-level cities of Hebei province (f_ctr_other), minimum distance to the centers of other urban areas (f_ctr_cty), minimum distance to railways (f_rail), minimum distance to highways (f_r_hig), minimum distance to national roads (f_r_nat), minimum distance to provincial roads (f_r_pro), location in or outside areas prohibited for construction (constrain), and neighborhood development intensity (neighbor). The model BUDEM-JJJ was used to identify urban growth mechanisms in two historical phases from 2000 to 2005 and from 2005 to 2010, to simulate urban growth scenarios for 2049. Six urban growth scenarios were put forward, including the base (business as usual) scenario, high-speed growth scenario, low-speed growth scenario, highway finger-shaped growth scenario, small cities and towns promoting growth scenario, and transportation-led growth scenario. BUDEM-JJJ considers the heterogeneity of driving force and model parameters, and fulfills accurate simulation in large-scale. Using the model urban layout can be predicted for each scenario. From the number of increased cellular and the occupation of farmland, grassland, forestland, and unused land, we found that the different scenarios have different effects on the environment. BUDEM-JJJ is the first applicable urban growth model in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region. These scenarios can be applied in several planning projects and also can be used to evaluate the present urban growth rate.

Key words: cellular automata, BUDEM-JJJ, urban expansion, simulation, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region