PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY ›› 2013, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (1): 59-67.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.01.006

• Original Articles • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Runoff simulation of climate change scenarios based on HIMS model in the Huangshui river basin

ZHANG Yanjiao1, GAO Xiaohong1, LI Qijiang2, CHEN Qiang2, YANG Junjun1   

  1. 1. Qinghai Normal University/Key Laboratory of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Environment and Resources, Ministry of Education, Xining 810008, China;
    2. Hydrology and Water Resources Survey Bureau of Qinghai Province, Xining 810001, China
  • Received:2012-05-01 Revised:2012-09-01 Online:2013-01-25 Published:2013-01-25

Abstract: It is important for rational water use and water management to study the change of runoff processes in response to climate change. Based on HIMS(Hydro-Informatic Modeling System) model, using daily precipitation data from 33 rainfall stations from 1986 to 2000, and daily maximum and minimum temperature measured at 8 meteorological stations, this paper presents a simulation of runoff processes in the Huangshui river basin in Qinghai province. Parameter sensitivity analysis and validation of the simulation are conducted using the recorded runoff data from six hydrological stations during the same time period. Results indicate that efficiency coefficient and correlation coefficient of the simulated daily data at five stations exceed 0.5, except Shiyazhuang station; the efficiency coefficient and correlation coefficient of the simulated monthly data at five stations exceed 0.9. Daily and monthly sensitivity analysis and validation generates good outcome as well, demonstrating that the HIMS model applies to the runoff processes in the Huangshui River basin very well, and can be used to simulate the scenarios of areal responses to climate change, which meets the requirements of water resources management. Based on this, the changes of precipitation and temperature in recent 50 years(from 1961 to 2010) in the Huangshui River basin are analyzed, and the hydrological responses(runoff) to 9 types of possible climate change scenarios are simulated and analyzed. The results suggest that climate change has significantly effects on the runoff of the Huangshui River basin. If temperature rises and precipitation decreases, then runoff shows a strong tendency to decrease; on the contrary, if changes of temperature and precipitation reverse, runoff shows a tendency to increase. In addition, in the Huangshui river basin, precipitation is the key climatic factor, and the effect of precipitation change on runoff processes is significantly greater than that of temperature change.

Key words: climate change scenario, HIMS model, Huangshui river basin, Qinghai province, runoff simulation