PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY ›› 2000, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (3): 227-236.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2000.03.005

• Original Articles • Previous Articles     Next Articles

EI Nino, Global Warming and Disasters Increasing: Impacts on Sustainable Agricultural Productivity

YU Hu ning, JIANG Ai liang   

  1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101
  • Received:2000-02-01 Revised:2000-08-01 Online:2000-08-24 Published:2000-08-24

Abstract: Three periods are clearly divided based on decadal mean temperatures of the records for global surface temperatures of recent 120 years. The first of them was the period of lower temperature (from 1880 to 1919, at least 40 years), the second was the period of transition(fluctuation of temperature was not too much, from 1920 to 1979, about 60 years), the third is the period of temperature increasing. We understand the temperature of the Little Ice Age was lower than that of the period from 1880 to 1919 according to the references of the Little Ice Age (from 1450 or 1490 to 1850 or 1880, about 400 years). Therefore imagined duration of lower temperature is about 450 years. The variations of temperature for the recent 450 years are the kind of the process of unidirectional, gradual change. Another three periods may be also divided according to the situation of EI Nino emerging in this century. The first period was that of EI Nino accidental emerging from 1900 to 1940. The second period was that of EI Nino middle emerging from 1940 to 1980, the global temperature was increasing at faint or middle level for this period. The third period is that of frequently emerging of EI Nino from 1980 to 1998, the global warming is obviously. Recent 100 years the situation of EI Nino emerging is similar with the process of unidirectional, gradual change for global temperature. The new viewpoint, that is to pay close attention to the influences on the piled effects of greenhouse effect and EI Nino, is given out after thinking the thermal inertia of ocean. We think the EI Nino will be frequently emerged and global temperature will be also kept the warmer state for several decades or longer period in the future. The natural disasters, such as flood, drought, bio calamities etc., will be frequently took place following EI Nino and global warming. Therefore we should do the works for taking precautions against and reducing natural calamities, and safeguard the sustainable agriculture productivity.

Key words: Defense natural calamities, EI Nino, Global warming

CLC Number: 

  • P732