Abstract: The temporal variation of China’s farmland area and grain crop sown area sinces the year 1949 are studied comprehensively in this paper. Supported by the database of China’s national grain production, the author studies the temporal variation characteristics of China’s farmland area and grain crop sown area quantitatively in two aspects: temporal variation tendency and temporal variation mechanism. Based on the temporal variation regularity obtained above, China’s farmland area and grain crop sown area are predicted by “comprehensive dynamic prediction method” and “equal dimensional GM(1,1) dynamic prediction method”. The prediction result is that China’s farmland area will be 94 000 thousand hectares and China’s grain crop sown area will be 108000 thousand hectares by the year 2000.

Key words: China, Dynamic prediction, Farmland area, Grain crop sown area, Temporal variation