中国城市规模分布的形态和演化与城市增长模式——基于Zipf定律与Gibrat定律的分析

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2022.03.001

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the data of permanent residents from six national population census of China over the period 1953-2010, this study conducted an empirical analysis on the size heterogeneity of city size distribution and the relationship between the evolution of city size distribution and city growth model, to which little attention was paid in previous studies. We selected all cities (including prefecture-level cities and county-level cities) and prefecture-level cities (city propers) alone as samples, and empirically analyzed the morphological characteristics and evolution trends of urban rank-size distribution in China and its relationship with Gibrat's Law. The results show that the main body of city size distribution in China conforms to the linear distribution of Zipf's Law. However, the two ends of the city size distribution spectrum, namely small cities and megacities, deviate from the linear distribution due to insufficient sizes. This phenomenon is not unique to China, but supported by evidence from other countries of the world. From the perspective of evolution, the city size distribution in China gradually dispersed and deviated from Zipf's Law in the early stage. However, from 2000, it began to return to the direction in line with Zipf's Law, with big cities taking the lead in 1990, which shows the coupling with the random growth of urban population in this stage and verifies the logical consistency between Zipf's Law and Gibert's Law. The findings of this study have important implications for promoting the high-quality development of city size distribution in China.

Key words: city size distribution, Zipf's Law, rank-size rule, Gibrat's Law, China

SUN Bindong, WANG Yanyan, ZHANG Zhiqiang, LI Wan. The form and evolution of city size distribution and urban growth model in China: An analysis based on Zipf’s Law and Gibrat’s Law[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2022, 41(3): 361-370.

Figures/Tables 9

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References 53

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样本	指标	1953年	1964年	1982年	1990年	2000年	2010年
所有城市	帕累托指数	0.876	0.933	0.927	1.05	1.243^***	1.166^***
	标准误	-0.097	-0.103	-0.085	-0.07	-0.068	-0.064
	城市数量	163	165	236	455	663	656
地级市	帕累托指数	0.935	1.130	1.090	1.250^*	1.268^**	1.169^*
	标准误	-0.140	-0.183	-0.144	-0.129	-0.111	-0.098
	城市数量	89	76	114	188	263	287

城市规模排位	1953年	1964年	1982年	1990年	2000年	2010年
Top50	1.211	1.586	1.865	2.035	1.622	1.592
Top89	1.136	1.377	1.609	2.188	1.741	1.484
Top100	1.116	1.331	1.552	2.220	1.773	1.489
Top150	1.002	1.081	1.354	2.250	1.880	1.537
Top200	—	—	1.170	2.168	1.914	1.577
Top300	—	—	—	1.905	1.953	1.611
Top400	—	—	—	1.581	1.914	1.608
Top500	—	—	—	—	1.819	1.561
Top600	—	—	—	—	1.627	1.438

样本	指标	1964年	1982年	1990年	2000年	2010年
所有城市	帕累托指数	0.981	1.296^**	2.086^***	1.866^***
	标准误	0.109	0.143	0.192	0.124
	城市数量	163	165	236	455
地级市	帕累托指数		1.482^**	1.706^***	1.526^***	1.269^**
	标准误		0.250	0.226	0.157	0.111
	城市数量		76	114	188	263

年均增长率	基期年份
年均增长率	1953	1964	1982	1990	2000
g53_64	-0.254^***
g53_82	-0.322^***
g53_90	-0.393^***
g53_00	-0.404^***
g53_10	-0.351^***
g64_82	-0.147^***	-0.165^***
g64_90		-0.218^***
g64_00		-0.245^***
g64_10		-0.247^***
g82_90	-0.153^***	-0.093^***	-0.228^***
g82_00			-0.292^***
g82_10			-0.269^***
g90_00	-0.100^**	-0.061^*	-0.109^***	-0.127^***
g90_10				-0.130^***
g00_10	0.020	0.030	0.025	0.022	0.021

年均增长率	基期年份
年均增长率	1953	1964	1982	1990	2000
g53_64	-0.203^***
g53_82	-0.266^***
g53_90	-0.314^***
g53_00	-0.247^***
g53_10	-0.238^***
g64_82	-0.121^***	-0.138^***
g64_90		-0.149^***
g64_00		-0.072^*
g64_10		-0.061
g82_90	-0.096^*	-0.020	-0.107^**
g82_00			-0.133
g82_10			-0.202^*
g90_00	0.037	0.056	0.013	-0.020
g90_10				-0.066
g00_10	0.012	0.062^**	0.012	-0.010	-0.021

The form and evolution of city size distribution and urban growth model in China: An analysis based on Zipf’s Law and Gibrat’s Law

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