PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY ›› 2022, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (3): 361-370.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2022.03.001
• Articles • Next Articles
SUN Bindong1,2,3(), WANG Yanyan1,2,3, ZHANG Zhiqiang1, LI Wan1,2,3,*(
)
Received:
2021-06-08
Revised:
2021-09-22
Online:
2022-03-28
Published:
2022-05-28
Contact:
LI Wan
E-mail:bdsun@re.ecnu.edu.cn;lw1436@163.com
Supported by:
SUN Bindong, WANG Yanyan, ZHANG Zhiqiang, LI Wan. The form and evolution of city size distribution and urban growth model in China: An analysis based on Zipf’s Law and Gibrat’s Law[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2022, 41(3): 361-370.
Tab.1
Pareto index of city rank-size distribution in previous population censuses
样本 | 指标 | 1953年 | 1964年 | 1982年 | 1990年 | 2000年 | 2010年 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
所有城市 | 帕累托指数 | 0.876 | 0.933 | 0.927 | 1.05 | 1.243*** | 1.166*** |
标准误 | -0.097 | -0.103 | -0.085 | -0.07 | -0.068 | -0.064 | |
城市数量 | 163 | 165 | 236 | 455 | 663 | 656 | |
地级市 | 帕累托指数 | 0.935 | 1.130 | 1.090 | 1.250* | 1.268** | 1.169* |
标准误 | -0.140 | -0.183 | -0.144 | -0.129 | -0.111 | -0.098 | |
城市数量 | 89 | 76 | 114 | 188 | 263 | 287 |
Tab.2
Pareto index of city rank-size distribution with fixed number of cities
城市规模 排位 | 1953年 | 1964年 | 1982年 | 1990年 | 2000年 | 2010年 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Top50 | 1.211 | 1.586 | 1.865 | 2.035 | 1.622 | 1.592 |
Top89 | 1.136 | 1.377 | 1.609 | 2.188 | 1.741 | 1.484 |
Top100 | 1.116 | 1.331 | 1.552 | 2.220 | 1.773 | 1.489 |
Top150 | 1.002 | 1.081 | 1.354 | 2.250 | 1.880 | 1.537 |
Top200 | — | — | 1.170 | 2.168 | 1.914 | 1.577 |
Top300 | — | — | — | 1.905 | 1.953 | 1.611 |
Top400 | — | — | — | 1.581 | 1.914 | 1.608 |
Top500 | — | — | — | — | 1.819 | 1.561 |
Top600 | — | — | — | — | 1.627 | 1.438 |
Tab.3
Pareto index of city rank-size distribution under the evolution of the urban system
样本 | 指标 | 1953年 | 1964年 | 1982年 | 1990年 | 2000年 | 2010年 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
所有城市 | 帕累托指数 | 0.981 | 1.296** | 2.086*** | 1.866*** | ||
标准误 | 0.109 | 0.143 | 0.192 | 0.124 | |||
城市数量 | 163 | 165 | 236 | 455 | |||
地级市 | 帕累托指数 | 1.482** | 1.706*** | 1.526*** | 1.269** | ||
标准误 | 0.250 | 0.226 | 0.157 | 0.111 | |||
城市数量 | 76 | 114 | 188 | 263 |
Tab.4
Regression results of the city growth model (all cities)
年均增长率 | 基期年份 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1953 | 1964 | 1982 | 1990 | 2000 | |
g53_64 | -0.254*** | ||||
g53_82 | -0.322*** | ||||
g53_90 | -0.393*** | ||||
g53_00 | -0.404*** | ||||
g53_10 | -0.351*** | ||||
g64_82 | -0.147*** | -0.165*** | |||
g64_90 | -0.218*** | ||||
g64_00 | -0.245*** | ||||
g64_10 | -0.247*** | ||||
g82_90 | -0.153*** | -0.093*** | -0.228*** | ||
g82_00 | -0.292*** | ||||
g82_10 | -0.269*** | ||||
g90_00 | -0.100** | -0.061* | -0.109*** | -0.127*** | |
g90_10 | -0.130*** | ||||
g00_10 | 0.020 | 0.030 | 0.025 | 0.022 | 0.021 |
Tab.5
Regression results of the city growth model (city propers of prefecture-level cities)
年均增长率 | 基期年份 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1953 | 1964 | 1982 | 1990 | 2000 | |
g53_64 | -0.203*** | ||||
g53_82 | -0.266*** | ||||
g53_90 | -0.314*** | ||||
g53_00 | -0.247*** | ||||
g53_10 | -0.238*** | ||||
g64_82 | -0.121*** | -0.138*** | |||
g64_90 | -0.149*** | ||||
g64_00 | -0.072* | ||||
g64_10 | -0.061 | ||||
g82_90 | -0.096* | -0.020 | -0.107** | ||
g82_00 | -0.133 | ||||
g82_10 | -0.202* | ||||
g90_00 | 0.037 | 0.056 | 0.013 | -0.020 | |
g90_10 | -0.066 | ||||
g00_10 | 0.012 | 0.062** | 0.012 | -0.010 | -0.021 |
[1] | 姚士谋, 张平宇, 余成, 等. 中国新型城镇化理论与实践问题[J]. 地理科学, 2014,34(6):641-647. |
[ Yao Shimou, Zhang Pingyu, Yu Cheng, et al. The theory and practice of new urbanization in China. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2014,34(6):641-647. ] | |
[2] | 孙斌栋, 金晓溪, 林杰. 走向大中小城市协调发展的中国新型城镇化格局: 1952年以来中国城市规模分布演化与影响因素[J]. 地理研究, 2019,38(1):75-84. |
[ Sun Bindong, Jin Xiaoxi, Lin Jie. China's new pattern of urbanization toward coordinated development of large, medium and small cities: Evolution and determinants of city size distribution since 1952. Geographical Research, 2019,38(1):75-84. ] | |
[3] | Lotka A J. Elements of physical biology[M]. Baltimore, USA: Williams and Wilkins, 1925. |
[4] | Goodrich E P. The statistical relationship between population and the city plan[M]. Chicago, USA: University of Chicago Press, 1926. |
[5] | Wright J K. Certain changes in population distribution in the United States[J]. Geographical Review, 1941,31:488-490. |
[6] | Carroll G R. National city-size distributions: What do we know after 67 years of research?[J]. Progress in Human Geography, 1982,6(1):1-43. |
[7] | Rosen K T, Resnick M. The size distribution of cities: An examination of the Pareto Law and primacy[J]. Journal of Urban Economics, 1980,8(2):165-186. |
[8] | Nitsch V. Zipf zipped[J]. Journal of Urban Economics, 2005,57(1):86-100. |
[9] | Eeckhout J. Gibrat's Law for (all) cities[J]. American Economic Review, 2004,94(5):1429-1451. |
[10] | de Vries J. European urbanization, 1500-1800[M]. London, UK: Routledge, 1984. |
[11] | Giesen K, Zimmermann A, Suedekum J. The size distribution across all cities: Double Pareto lognormal strikes[J]. Journal of Urban Economics, 2010,68(2):129-137. |
[12] | Reed W J. The Pareto, Zipf and other power laws[J]. Economics Letters, 2001,74(1):15-19. |
[13] | Eaton J, Eckstein Z. Cities and growth: Theory and evidence from France and Japan[J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 1997,27(4/5):443-474. |
[14] | Black D, Henderson V. Urban evolution in the USA[J]. Journal of Economic Geography, 2003,3(4):343-372. |
[15] | Anderson G, Ge Y. The size distribution of Chinese cities[J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 2005,35(6):756-776. |
[16] | Soo K T. Zipf, Gibrat and geography: Evidence from China, India and Brazil[J]. Papers in Regional Science, 2014,93(1):159-181. |
[17] | Gibrat R. Les Inégalités économiques: Applications: Aux inégalités des richesses, à la concentration des entreprises, aux populations des villes, aux statistiques des familles, etc. d'une loi nouvelle: La loi de l'effet proportionnel[M]. Paris, France: Librairie du Recueil Sirey, 1931. |
[18] | Gabaix X. Zipf's Law for cities: An explanation[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1999,114(3):739-767. |
[19] | Duranton G. Some foundations for Zipf's Law: Product proliferation and local spillovers[J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 2006,36(4):542-563. |
[20] | Duranton G. Urban evolutions: The fast, the slow, and the still[J]. American Economic Review, 2007,97(1):197-221. |
[21] | Córdoba J-C. On the distribution of city sizes[J]. Journal of Urban Economics, 2008,63(1):177-197. |
[22] | Córdoba J-C. A generalized Gibrat's Law[J]. International Economic Review, 2008,49(4):1463-1468. |
[23] | Ioannides Y M, Overman H G. Zipf's Law for cities: An empirical examination[J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 2003,33(2):127-137. |
[24] | Bosker M, Brakman S, Garretsen H, et al. A century of shocks: The evolution of the German city size distribution 1925-1999[J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 2008,38(4):330-347. |
[25] | González-Val R. The evolution of U.S. city size distribution from a long-term perspective(1900-2000)[J]. Journal of Regional Science, 2010,50(5):952-972. |
[26] | Giesen K, Südekum J. Zipf's Law for cities in the regions and the country[J]. Journal of Economic Geography, 2011,11(4):667-686. |
[27] | Berry B J L, Okulicz-Kozaryn A. The city size distribution debate: Resolution for US urban regions and megalopolitan areas[J]. Cities, 2012,29:S17-S23. |
[28] | Chauvin J P, Glaeser E, Ma Y R, et al. What is different about urbanization in rich and poor countries? Cities in Brazil, China, India and the United States[J]. Journal of Urban Economics, 2017,98:17-49. |
[29] | Soo K T. Zipf's Law and urban growth in Malaysia[J]. Urban Studies, 2007,44(1):1-14. |
[30] | Zhao S Q, Zhou D C, Zhu C, et al. Spatial and temporal dimensions of urban expansion in China[J]. Environmental Science & Technology, 2015,49(16):9600-9609. |
[31] | 曹跃群, 刘培森. 中国城市规模分布及影响因素实证研究[J]. 西北人口, 2011,32(4):47-52. |
[ Cao Yuequn, Liu Peisen. China's urban size distribution and effect factors of empirical study. Northwest Population Journal, 2011,32(4):47-52. ] | |
[32] | 高鸿鹰, 武康平. 我国城市规模分布Pareto指数测算及影响因素分析[J]. 数量经济技术经济研究, 2007(4):43-52. |
[ Gao Hongying, Wu Kangping. The estimates and the influential factors of the Pareto exponent of city size distributions in China. The Journal of Quantitative & Technical Economics, 2007(4):43-52. ] | |
[33] | 张志强. 中国城市体系演化的影响因素探究[J]. 江苏社会科学, 2010(3):67-72. |
[ Zhang Zhiqiang. On the influencing factors of urban system evolution in China. Jiangsu Social Sciences, 2010(3):67-72. ] | |
[34] | 梁琦, 陈强远, 王如玉. 户籍改革、劳动力流动与城市层级体系优化[J]. 中国社会科学, 2013(12):36-59, 205. |
[ Liang Qi, Chen Qiangyuan, Wang Ruyu. Household registration reform, labor mobility and optimization of the urban hierarchy. Social Sciences in China, 2013(12):36-59, 205. ] | |
[35] | 唐为. 中国城市规模分布体系过于扁平化吗?[J]. 世界经济文汇, 2016(1):36-51. |
[ Tang Wei. Is China's city size distribution system too flat? World Economic Papers, 2016(1):36-51. ] | |
[36] | Song S F, Zhang K H. Urbanization and city size distribution in China[J]. Urban Studies, 2002,39(12):2317-2327. |
[37] | 陈良文, 杨开忠, 吴姣. 中国城市体系演化的实证研究[J]. 江苏社会科学, 2007(1):81-88. |
[ Chen Liangwen, Yang Kaizhong, Wu Jiao. Evidence based research on evolution of urban system in China. Jiangsu Social Sciences, 2007(1):81-88. ] | |
[38] | 魏守华, 孙宁, 姜悦. Zipf定律与Gibrat定律在中国城市规模分布中的适用性[J]. 世界经济, 2018,41(9):96-120. |
[ Wei Shouhua, Sun Ning, Jiang Yue. The applicability of Zipf's Law and Gibrat's Law to city size distribution in China. The Journal of World Economy, 2018,41(9):96-120. ] | |
[39] | 邓智团, 樊豪斌. 中国城市人口规模分布规律研究[J]. 中国人口科学, 2016(4):48-60, 127. |
[ Deng Zhituan, Fan Haobin. Research on the population size distribution across cities in China. Chinese Journal of Population Science, 2016(4):48-60, 127. ] | |
[40] | 余吉祥, 周光霞, 段玉彬. 中国城市规模分布的演进趋势研究: 基于全国人口普查数据[J]. 人口与经济, 2013(2):44-52. |
[ Yu Jixiang, Zhou Guangxia, Duan Yubin. The trend of city size distribution in China: Based on census data. Population & Economics, 2013(2):44-52. ] | |
[41] | 王乾, 冯长春, 甘霖. 中国城市规模的空间分布演进及其动力机制[J]. 城市问题, 2019(6):14-23. |
[ Wang Qian, Feng Changchun, Gan Lin. Evolution and driving mechanism of Chinese cities' size distribution. Urban Problems, 2019(6):14-23. ] | |
[42] | 万庆, 吴传清, 罗翔, 等. 中国城市规模分布时空演化特征: 基于“五普”和“六普”人口统计数据的实证研究[J]. 经济地理, 2018,38(4):81-90. |
[ Wan Qing, Wu Chuanqing, Luo Xiang, et al. Spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of China's city size distribution. Economic Geography, 2018,38(4):81-90. ] | |
[43] | 李松林, 刘修岩. 中国城市体系规模分布扁平化: 多维区域验证与经济解释[J]. 世界经济, 2017,40(11):144-169. |
[ Li Songlin, Liu Xiuyan. The flat distribution of city size in China: A multidimensional regional validation and its economic interpretations. The Journal of World Economy, 2017,40(11):144-169. ] | |
[44] | 许伟攀, 李郇, 陈浩辉. 基于城市夜间灯光数据的中美两国城市位序规模分布对比[J]. 地理科学进展, 2018,37(3):385-396. |
[ Xu Weipan, Li Xun, Chen Haohui. A comparative research on the rank-size distribution of cities in China and the United States based on urban nighttime light data. Progress in Geography, 2018,37(3):385-396. ] | |
[45] | Auerbach F. Das gesetz der belvolkerungskoncertration[J]. Petermanns Geographische Mitteilungen, 1913,59:74-76. |
[46] | Zipf G K. Human behaviour and the principle of least effort[M]. Boston, USA: Addison-Wesley, 1949. |
[47] | Gabaix X, Ioannides Y M. The evolution of city size distributions[C]// Henderson V, Thisse J-F. Handbook of regional and urban economics. Amsterdam, the Netherlands: Elesvier, 2004: 2341-2378. |
[48] | Gabaix X, Ibragimov R. Rank-1/2: A simple way to improve the OLS estimation of tail exponents[J]. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2011,29(1):24-39. |
[49] | Manson S, Schroeder J, Van Riper D, et al. IPUMS national historical geographic information system: Version 15.0 [DB/OL]. Minneapolis, USA: IPUMS, 2020[ 2021- 05- 08]. http://doi.org/10.18128/D050.V15.0. |
[50] | Levy M. Gibrat's Law for (all) cities: Comment[J]. American Economic Review, 2009,99(4):1672-1675. |
[51] | Ioannides Y, Skouras S. US city size distribution: Robustly Pareto, but only in the tail[J]. Journal of Urban Economics, 2013,73(1):18-29. |
[52] | González-Val R, Ramos A, Sanz-Gracia F, et al. Size distributions for all cities: Which one is best?[J]. Papers in Regional Science, 2015,94(1):177-196. |
[53] | Li P F, Lu M. Urban systems: Understanding and predicting the spatial distribution of China's population[J]. China & World Economy, 2021,29(4):35-62. |
[1] | XU Yan, ZHANG Qingyuan, LU Lin. Tidal tourism flow study: Conceptual framework and research ideas [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2022, 41(3): 521-530. |
[2] | LIU Jixiang, XIAO Longzhu, ZHOU Jiangping, GUO Yuanyuan, YANG Linchuan. Non-linear relationships between the built environment and walking to school: Applying extreme gradient boosting method [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2022, 41(2): 251-263. |
[3] | WANG Fei, CHEN Baozhang, CHEN Jing, ZHANG Huifang, GUO Lifeng. Comparative study of DLM and CLM5 model simulations at winter wheat-summer maize rotation stations in the North China Plain [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2022, 41(2): 289-303. |
[4] | GUO Lijia, LI Chang, PENG Hongsong, ZHONG Shi'en, ZHANG Jinhe, YU Hu. Tourism eco-efficiency at the provincial level in China in the context of energy conservation and emission reduction [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2021, 40(8): 1284-1297. |
[5] | HAO Lisheng, HE Liye, CHENG Shanjun, LIANG Sujie. Climatic characteristics and monitoring analysis of rainy season in the Haihe River Basin [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2021, 40(7): 1181-1194. |
[6] | LI Quanfeng, LI Jicheng, YU Mingpeng, GUO Xinxin. Spatial pattern of gully erosion control urgency in black soil farming area [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2021, 40(7): 1208-1219. |
[7] | SONG Jinyan, LI Xiande, XU Ning. Spatial pattern and underlying factors of new telecommunication equipment ventures in China [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2021, 40(6): 911-924. |
[8] | CHENG Xuelan, FANG Yelin, SU Xueqing, LI Jinglong. Spatial distribution characteristics of network structure of tourism flow in five major urban agglomerations of coastal China [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2021, 40(6): 948-957. |
[9] | JIN Zerun, ZHU Shengjun. Technology-introduction pattern of cities in China and its mechanism of change based on technology relatedness and complexity [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2021, 40(6): 897-910. |
[10] | ZHANG Rong, PAN Jinghu, LAI Jianbo. Characteristics of intercity trip network structure of residents under different traffic modes: A case study of Spring Festival travel rush [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2021, 40(5): 759-773. |
[11] | LAN Xue, LIU Chengliang, LUO Rongjing, RUAN Jiaqi, YE Qiuyu, WANG Jie. Spatiotemporal variations and types of the economic power zones of China and the United States [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2021, 40(5): 825-838. |
[12] | ZHAO Lin, LIU Yanxu, CAO Naigang, WU Dianting, JIA Jianqi. Spatiotemporal pattern and spillover effects of inclusive green efficiency in China [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2021, 40(3): 382-396. |
[13] | LIU Tingting, WANG Mingfeng, ZHANG Yinghao, WANG Fan, WU Mingyu. Spatiotemporal pattern and determinants of Internet firm survival in China [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2021, 40(3): 410-421. |
[14] | LIU Zhen, QI Wei, QI Honggang, LIU Shenghe. Spatial distribution of population decline areas in China and underlying causes from a multi-periodical perspective [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2021, 40(3): 357-369. |
[15] | CHEN Zhuo, LIANG Yi, JIN Fengjun. Simulation of city network accessibility and its influence on regional development pattern in China based on integrated land transport system [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2021, 40(2): 183-193. |
|