中国与OECD在非援助国别分配的空间关系研究

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2020.05.006

Abstract

Abstract:

China's aid to Africa (Aid) has received increasing attention from the international community as this aid is breaking the original aid pattern in this continent, but existing literatures paid little attention to the spatial relationship of aid to Africa between China and the OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development). Based on the data of Aid from China and ODA (Official Development Assistance) from OECD to 44 countries in Africa from 2001 to 2012, this study analyzed the geographical distribution features and the spatial evolution of the Aid and the ODA, and identified quantitatively their spatial convergence relationship by constructing a static panel regression model. The results show that: 1) The temporal change was synchronistic with significant increase in the amount of aid, and timing correlation was obvious as the changes of rank-size distribution of African countries tended to converge. 2) There exited homogeneity in spatial distribution, the degree of spatial match was high, and the main recipient countries were similar. 3) In addition to the consistency of response mode, there was a steady and significant positive relationship between the Aid and the ODA, and the degree of response to the ODA from the Aid was more sensitive and marked. 4) The influencing factors were similar, especially manifested in terms of GDP per capita and the incidence of malnutrition.

Key words: Aid, ODA, spatial convergence, static panel regression model

SHAO Jing, WANG Maojun. Spatial relationship of country allocation of aid to Africa between China and OECD[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2020, 39(5): 766-778.

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指标	操作层	数据来源	最小值	最大值	中值	均值	标准差	偏度	峰度
自然资源	非洲i国在t年的自然资源租金总额占GDP的百分比	世界银行	0	89.17	9.17	13.93	14.02	1.67	2.83
经济发展水平	非洲i国在t年的人均GDP	世界银行	5.29	9.94	6.86	7.04	1.08	0.63	-0.53
人道主义需求	非洲i国在t年的营养不良的发生率(占人口的百分比)	世界银行	0	54.90	18.15	19.43	14.87	0.27	-1.12

等级	数量/个	百分比/%	累计百分比/%	等级	数量/个	百分比/%	累计百分比/%
1	27	4.72	4.72	5	93	16.26	61.89
2	64	11.19	15.91	6	159	27.80	89.69
3	89	15.56	31.47	7	59	10.31	100.00
4	81	14.16	45.63	合计	572	100

同步次数/次	国家数量/个	国家名称
12	1	加蓬
11	3	塞舌尔、几内亚比绍共和国、南非
10	7	苏丹、赞比亚、科特迪瓦、厄立特里亚、马里、坦桑尼亚、喀麦隆
9	7	纳米比亚、刚果(布)、塞内加尔、毛里塔尼亚、布隆迪、几内亚、埃塞俄比亚
8	14	博茨瓦纳、尼日利亚、马拉维、利比里亚、安哥拉、尼日尔、科摩罗、莫桑比克、阿拉伯埃及共和国、塞拉利昂、阿尔及利亚、中非共和国、刚果(金)、突尼斯
7	7	肯尼亚、赤道几内亚、马达加斯加、摩洛哥、吉布提、津巴布韦、加纳
6	4	卢旺达、多哥、乌干达、莱索托
5	1	毛里求斯

指标	最小值	最大值	中值	均值	标准差	偏度	峰度
ODA	16.00	23.12	19.80	19.67	1.31	-0.49	-0.27
Aid	0.00	22.82	16.26	12.67	8.05	-0.83	-1.09

援助稳健性/%	Aid	ODA
>50	加纳(62%)、苏丹(62%)、尼日利亚(54%)、安哥拉(54%)	坦桑尼亚(100%)、埃塞俄比亚(92%)、刚果(金)(77%)
20~50	埃塞俄比亚(46%)、津巴布韦(38%)、刚果布(31%)、埃及(23%)	苏丹(46%)、莫桑比克(46%)、埃及(38%)、尼日利亚(31%)
<20	科特迪瓦(15%)、肯尼亚(15%)、赞比亚(15%)、南非(15%)、坦桑尼亚(15%)、刚果(金)(8%)、莫桑比克(8%)、乌干达(8%)、喀麦隆(8%)、毛里求斯(8%)、赤道几内亚(8%)、博茨瓦纳(8%)	科特迪瓦(15%)、肯尼亚(15%)、乌干达(15%)、加纳(8%)、喀麦隆(8%)、乌干达(8%)

Spatial relationship of country allocation of aid to Africa between China and OECD

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变量	LLC	IPS	ADF	结论
ln(中国援助额+1)	-14.810^***	-7.761^***	217.543^***	平稳
ln(世界援助额+1)	-8.689^***	-2.873^***	129.302^***	平稳
自然资源租金占GDP比重	-9.513^***	-2.868^***	127.142^***	平稳
ln(人均GDP)	-14.122^***	-2.063^**	111.847^**	平稳
政治权利指数	-8.855^***	-1.977^**	96.757^**	平稳
营养不良发生率	-8.750^***	-3.797^***	163.841^***	平稳

变量	Aid模型						变量	ODA模型
变量	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	变量	(7)	(8)	(9)	(10)	(11)
常量	-18.650^*** (-2.61)	-42.096^*** (-4.48)	-42.207^*** (-4.31)	-27.782^*** (-2.62)	-27.719^*** (-2.56)	-27.341^*** (-2.64)	常量	19.541^*** (716.00)	13.302^*** (23.49)	13.228^*** (23.34)	14.158^*** (20.79)	14.373^*** (21.14)
ln(ODA+1)	1.592^*** (4.39)	1.127^*** (2.89)	1.130^*** (2.81)	0.841^** (2.07)	0.833^** (2.04)	0.833^** (2.08)	ln(Aid+1)	0.010^*** (5.45)	0.007^*** (4.02)	0.007^*** (4.28)	0.007^*** (4.02)	0.007^*** (3.96)
ln(人均GDP)		4.619^*** (3.93)	4.612^*** (3.85)	3.882^*** (3.09)	3.904^*** (3.10)	3.847^** (3.12)	ln(人均GDP)		0.891^*** (11.02)	0.888^*** (10.89)	0.783^*** (8.46)	0.782^*** (8.52)
自然资源租金占GDP比重/%			0.007 (0.18)	0.004 (0.10)	0.005 (0.11)		自然资源租金占GDP比重/%			0.006^** (2.29)	0.006^** (2.23)	0.005^* (1.83)
营养不良发生率/%				-0.182^*** (-4.16)	-0.183^*** (-4.13)	-0.181^*** (-4.15)	营养不良发生率/%				-0.009^*** (-2.82)	-0.010^*** (-3.06)
政治权利指数					-0.014 (-0.05)		政治权利指数					-0.041^** (-2.25)
N	572	572	572	572	572	572	N	572	572	572	572	572
R²	0.438	0.450	0.445	0.456	0.456	0.461	R²	0.922	0.938	0.939	0.939	0.941
校正R²	0.391	0.403	0.396	0.408	0.406	0.414	校正R²	0.916	0.933	0.933	0.933	0.935
Prob(Quasi-LR stat)	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001	Prob(Quasi-LR stat)	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001
Hausman P值	0.147	0.042	0.110	0.001	0.002	0.002	Hausman P值	0.004	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001

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