气候变化背景下中国玉米生产潜力变化特征

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2020.03.009

Abstract

Abstract:

Maize is China's largest food crop. Exploring the temporal and spatial characteristics of maize production potential in the context of climate change is of great significance for China to effectively adapt to climate change. This study combined global agro-ecological zone (GAEZ) model, extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition (ESMD) method, and set-pair analysis method to explore the periodic fluctuation characteristics and long-term trend of maize production potential in China and analyzed the process of spatial pattern change. The results show that China's maize production potential increased during 1960-2010, from 910 million tons in the 1960s to 945 million tons in the 2000s. On the interannual scale, China's maize production potential mainly fluctuated in the quasi-three-year and quasi-five-year periods; on the interdecadal scale, there were quasi-10-year and quasi-20-year fluctuation periods. The quasi-three-year periodic fluctuation was the most important feature of the long-term change of maize production potential, which was mainly affected by the change of annual precipitation. Spatially, maize growing areas were mainly concentrated in the region east of Jiagedaqi-Xilinhot-Linhe-Xining-Tianshui-Zhongdian. During the 1960s-2000s, the maize production potential boundary moved in the northeastern part of China and along the Linhe-Xining line. The trend of change of maize production potential in the North China Plain, Liaohe Plain, and Sichuan Basin showed strong consistency; however, the change process in the Songnen Plain, Sanjiang Plain, Guanzhong Basin, and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River was the opposite of the above. In both types of regions, the changes in maize production potential were significant, and the direction of change was alternating on the interdecadal scale.

Key words: maize production potential, periodic fluctuations, spatial pattern, climate change, China

ZHOU Meijun, LI Fei, SHAO Jiaqi, YANG Haijuan. Change characteristics of maize production potential under the background of climate change in China[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2020, 39(3): 443-453.

Figures/Tables 8

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References 38

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分量	指标	玉米生产潜力	Pre	Rad	Rhu	Tmn	Tmx	Wdf	Wnd
IMF₁	周期/a	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
IMF₁	方差贡献率/%	62.7	61.3	29.4	38.0	7.5	22.1	44.7	2.9
IMF₂	周期/a	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
IMF₂	方差贡献率/%	16.4	20.3	15.0	20.9	5.0	8.1	13.5	1.3
IMF₃	周期/a	10	10	10	7	10	10	10	13
IMF₃	方差贡献率/%	10.0	14.6	6.2	18.8	1.2	4.7	11.9	2.8
IMF₄	周期/a	20	15		15			17
IMF₄	方差贡献率/%	9.0	1.8		19.0			2.9
IMF₅	周期/a		20		20
IMF₅	方差贡献率/%		0.1		1.8
R	方差贡献率/%	1.9	0.9	49.3	1.5	86.3	65.1	27.0	93.0

周期	气候要素	方差贡献率β_jk/%	U_ij	影响度φ_ij/%
IMF₁ (准3 a)	Pre IMF₁	61.3	0.4387	33.60
	Rad IMF₁	29.4	0.1283	9.82
	Rhu IMF₁	38.0	0.2589	19.83
	Tmn IMF₁	7.5	0.0445	3.41
	Tmx IMF₁	22.1	0.1213	9.29
	Wdf IMF₁	44.7	0.3002	22.99
	Wnd IMF₁	2.9	0.0138	1.06
IMF₂ (准5 a)	Pre IMF₂	20.3	0.1234	25.69
	Rad IMF₂	15.0	0.0772	16.07
	Rhu IMF₂	20.9	0.1332	27.73
	Tmn IMF₂	5.0	0.0270	5.61
	Tmx IMF₂	8.1	0.0433	9.01
	Wdf IMF₂	13.5	0.0695	14.47
	Wnd IMF₂	1.3	0.0068	1.42
IMF₃ (准10 a)	Pre IMF₃	14.6	0.1124	43.64
	Rad IMF₃	6.2	0.0340	13.22
	Tmn IMF₃	1.2	0.0085	3.29
	Tmx IMF₃	4.7	0.0396	15.39
	Wdf IMF₃	11.9	0.0630	24.47
IMF₄ (准20 a)	Pre IMF₅	0.1	0.0002	2.33
IMF₄ (准20 a)	Rhu IMF₅	1.8	0.0099	97.67

Change characteristics of maize production potential under the background of climate change in China

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