PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY ›› 2020, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (11): 1898-1908.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2020.11.010

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Impact of urban development on the risk of flooding: A case study of Wuhan City, China

ZHAO Liyuan(), WEI Jialing   

  1. School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China
  • Received:2019-12-12 Revised:2020-05-02 Online:2020-11-28 Published:2021-01-28
  • Supported by:
    National Social Science Founding of China(18BGL270)


Urban pluvial flooding is an increasing problem for cities worldwide. Urban spatial growth and development have been widely recognized as one of the most important contributors to the increasing risk of flood disasters. Using Wuhan City, China as a case, this study developed a binary Logistic model to quantify the impacts of urban development on flooding under different rainfall scenarios (regular and extreme), especially the role of land conversion from water areas. Based on historical remote sensing data, the analysis of the dynamic land use changes indicates that over 30% of water areas had been converted into urban construction lands from 1984 to 2017. The results show that the conversion of water areas severely intensified the flooding risk of the surrounding locations in the extreme rainfall scenario. In addition to this land conversion, elevation, drainage conditions, land use types, and land use of surrounding areas are also significantly correlated with urban flooding. Based on two land use and development strategies, the risk maps of future flooding were predicted under regular and extreme rainfall scenarios. These maps show that the development of the remaining vacant lands will induce even worse flooding. Adaptation strategies corresponding to different land use types are provided according to the predicted flooding risks. The model could help develop adaptation strategies and policies to cope with future urban flooding by exploring its driving factors.

Key words: urban flooding, spatial distribution, urban construction, binary Logistic model