全球气候变化背景下海岸洪水灾害风险评估研究进展与展望

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2019.05.001

Abstract

Abstract:

The sea level rise under global climate change and coastal floods caused by extreme sea levels due to the high tide levels and storm surges have huge impacts on coastal society, economy, and natural environment. It has drawn great attention from global scientific researchers. This study examines the definitions and elements of coastal flooding in the general and narrow senses, and mainly focuses on the components of coastal flooding in the narrow sense. Based on the natural disaster system theory, the review systematically summarizes the progress of coastal flood research in China, then discusses existing problems in present studies and future research directions with regard to this issue. It is proposed that future studies need to strengthen research on adapting to climate change in coastal areas, including studies on the risk of multi-hazards and uncertainties of hazard impacts under climate change, risk assessment of key exposure (critical infrastructure) in coastal hotspots, and cost-benefit analysis of adaptation and mitigation measures in coastal areas. Efforts to improve the resilience of coastal areas under climate change should be given more attention. The research community also should establish the mechanism of data sharing among disciplines to meet the needs of future risk assessments, so that coastal issues can be more comprehensively, systematically, and dynamically studied.

Key words: coastal flood, global climate change, storm surge, risk assessment, impact

Jiayi FANG, Peijun SHI. A review of coastal flood risk research under global climate change[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2019, 38(5): 625-636.

Figures/Tables 4

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项目及执行时间	项目中英文全称	目标
DINAS-COAST (2001—2004年)	应对气候变化及海平面上升全球沿海地区动态交互脆弱性评价(Dynamic and Interactive Assessment of National, Regional and Global Vulnerability of Coastal Zones to Climate Change and Sea Level Rise)	集成多学科的知识(海岸地貌学、生态学、经济学、环境地理和计算机科学),建模开发有助于支持决策者分析的关于气候变化和海平面上升影响的评估模型
XtremRisK (2008—2012年)	极端风暴潮综合洪水风险评估(Integrated Flood Risk Analysis for Extreme Storm Surges)	开展在开放海岸和河口地区因极端水位导致的海岸洪水灾害风险分析
THESEUS (2009—2013年)	气候变化下欧洲沿岸创新适应性措施研究(Innovative Technologies for Safe European Coasts in a Changing Climate)	提供针对海岸洪水和海岸侵蚀的综合评估方法,结合多学科知识,从风险评估、应对策略和应用3个具体方向展开,为维护海岸带可持续发展提供创新的适应性措施
RISES-AM (2013—2016年)	气候变化下沿海地区应对极端情景创新战略研究——适应与减缓(Responses to Coastal Climate Change: Innovative Strategies for High End Scenarios — Adaptation and Mitigation)	为应对气候变化下沿海地区发生的极端情景,开发创新性的减轻和适应性措施
SPP 1889 (2016-2019年)	区域海平面变化与社会(Regional Sea Level Change and Society)	开展气候相关的海平面变化问题的交叉研究,通过全面、跨学科的集成手段,同时考虑人类环境的交互作用和沿海地区的社会经济发展

文献	内容	海平面组成
文献	内容	△SL_G	△SL_RM	△SL_RG	△SLM_N	△SLM_H	△SS
Lowe et al, 2009	国家层面(英国)	√	√		√		√
Rosenzweig, 2010	城市(纽约)	√			√		√
Hanson et al, 2011	全球(城市)	√			√	√	√
Parris et al, 2012	国家层面(美国)	√	√		√		√
Wang et al, 2012	城市(中国上海)	√			√	√	√
Kebede et al, 2012	城市(坦桑尼亚首都)	√			√		√

模型	尺度	空间分辨率	时间尺度	输入数据	输出数据	文献
淹没模型(如GIS)	地方、区域和全球	多变	用户定义	高程、海平面上升情景、社会经济数据	潜在淹没地区和影响人口地图	Rowley et al, 2007
SLAMM (Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model)	地方和区域	10~100 m	5~25 a时间步长	高程地图、湿地覆盖、发展足迹和海堤位置	潜在淹没地区和影响人口地图	Galbraith et al, 2003
DIVA (Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment)	国家、区域、全球	海岸线分段(全球分为1.2万段,平均每段70 km)	1~5 a,长达100 a	高程、地貌类型、海岸人口、土地利用、行政边界、GDP	预计海岸洪水影响人口、湿地改变、损失和适应成本、土地损失	Hinkel et al, 2009
LISCoAsT (Large scale Integrated Sea-level and Coastal Assessment Tool)	欧洲区域	海岸线分段,长度不等	多变,用户定义	高程、气象数据、人口等	期望人口与经济损失等	Vousdoukas et al, 2018

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A review of coastal flood risk research under global climate change

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