PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY ›› 2019, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (5): 625-636.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2019.05.001
• Reviews • Next Articles
Jiayi FANG1,2,3(), Peijun SHI2,3,4,5,*(
)
Received:
2018-08-03
Revised:
2019-01-15
Online:
2019-05-28
Published:
2019-05-28
Contact:
Peijun SHI
E-mail:jyfang@geo.ecnu.edu.cn;spj@bnu.edu.cn
Supported by:
Jiayi FANG, Peijun SHI. A review of coastal flood risk research under global climate change[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2019, 38(5): 625-636.
Tab.1
Non-exhaustive list of EU funded research projects about coastal flood under climate change"
项目及执行时间 | 项目中英文全称 | 目标 |
---|---|---|
DINAS-COAST (2001—2004年) | 应对气候变化及海平面上升全球沿海地区动态交互脆弱性评价(Dynamic and Interactive Assessment of National, Regional and Global Vulnerability of Coastal Zones to Climate Change and Sea Level Rise) | 集成多学科的知识(海岸地貌学、生态学、经济学、环境地理和计算机科学),建模开发有助于支持决策者分析的关于气候变化和海平面上升影响的评估模型 |
XtremRisK (2008—2012年) | 极端风暴潮综合洪水风险评估(Integrated Flood Risk Analysis for Extreme Storm Surges) | 开展在开放海岸和河口地区因极端水位导致的海岸洪水灾害风险分析 |
THESEUS (2009—2013年) | 气候变化下欧洲沿岸创新适应性措施研究(Innovative Technologies for Safe European Coasts in a Changing Climate) | 提供针对海岸洪水和海岸侵蚀的综合评估方法,结合多学科知识,从风险评估、应对策略和应用3个具体方向展开,为维护海岸带可持续发展提供创新的适应性措施 |
RISES-AM (2013—2016年) | 气候变化下沿海地区应对极端情景创新战略研究——适应与减缓(Responses to Coastal Climate Change: Innovative Strategies for High End Scenarios — Adaptation and Mitigation) | 为应对气候变化下沿海地区发生的极端情景,开发创新性的减轻和适应性措施 |
SPP 1889 (2016-2019年) | 区域海平面变化与社会(Regional Sea Level Change and Society) | 开展气候相关的海平面变化问题的交叉研究,通过全面、跨学科的集成手段,同时考虑人类环境的交互作用和沿海地区的社会经济发展 |
Tab.2
Non-exhaustive examples of coastal flooding assessment"
文献 | 内容 | 海平面组成 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
△SLG | △SLRM | △SLRG | △SLMN | △SLMH | △SS | |||
国家层面(英国) | √ | √ | √ | √ | ||||
城市(纽约) | √ | √ | √ | |||||
全球(城市) | √ | √ | √ | √ | ||||
Parris et al, 2012 | 国家层面(美国) | √ | √ | √ | √ | |||
城市(中国上海) | √ | √ | √ | √ | ||||
城市(坦桑尼亚首都) | √ | √ | √ |
Tab.3
Key attributes of coastal flood impact models"
模型 | 尺度 | 空间分辨率 | 时间尺度 | 输入数据 | 输出数据 | 文献 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
淹没模型(如GIS) | 地方、区域和全球 | 多变 | 用户定义 | 高程、海平面上升情景、社会经济数据 | 潜在淹没地区和影响人口地图 | |
SLAMM (Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model) | 地方和区域 | 10~100 m | 5~25 a时间步长 | 高程地图、湿地覆盖、发展足迹和海堤位置 | 潜在淹没地区和影响人口地图 | |
DIVA (Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment) | 国家、区域、全球 | 海岸线分段(全球分为1.2万段,平均每段70 km) | 1~5 a,长达100 a | 高程、地貌类型、海岸人口、土地利用、行政边界、GDP | 预计海岸洪水影响人口、湿地改变、损失和适应成本、土地损失 | |
LISCoAsT (Large scale Integrated Sea-level and Coastal Assessment Tool) | 欧洲区域 | 海岸线分段,长度不等 | 多变,用户定义 | 高程、气象数据、人口等 | 期望人口与经济损失等 |
1 | 陈美香, 白如冰, 左军成, 等. 2013. 我国沿海海平面变化预测方法探究[J]. 海洋环境科学, 32(3): 451-455. |
[Chen M X, Bai R B, Zuo J C, et al.2013. Discussion of sea level prediction along the coastal of China. Marine Environmental Science, 32(3): 451-455. ] | |
2 | 储金龙, 高抒, 徐建刚. 2005. 海岸带脆弱性评估方法研究进展[J]. 海洋通报, 24(3): 80-87. |
[Chu J L, Gao S, Xu J G.2005. Risk and safety evaluation methodologies for coastal systems: A review. Marine Science Bulletin, 24(3): 80-87. ] | |
3 |
段晓峰, 许学工, 陈满春, 等. 2014. 基于长期验潮数据的海平面预测方法与案例应用[J]. 北京大学学报(自然科学版), 50(6):1065-1070.
doi: 10.13209/j.0479-8023.2014.147 |
[Duan X F, Xu X G, Chen M C, et al.2014. Methodology and case study of sea level prediction based on secular tide gauge data. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis, 50(6): 1065-1070. ]
doi: 10.13209/j.0479-8023.2014.147 |
|
4 |
方佳毅, 陈文方, 孔锋, 等. 2015. 中国沿海地区社会脆弱性评价[J]. 北京师范大学学报(自然科学版), 51(3): 280-286.
doi: 10.16360/j.cnki.jbnuns.2015.03.011 |
[Fang J Y, Chen W F, Kong F, et al.2015. Measuring social vulnerability to natural hazards of the coastal areas in China. Journal of Beijing Normal University (Natural Science), 51(3): 280-286. ]
doi: 10.16360/j.cnki.jbnuns.2015.03.011 |
|
5 |
冯爱青, 高江波, 吴绍洪, 等. 2016. 气候变化背景下中国风暴潮灾害风险及适应对策研究进展[J]. 地理科学进展, 35(11): 1411-1419.
doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2016.11.011 |
[Feng A Q, Gao J B, Wu S H, et al.2016. A review of storm surge disaster risk research and adaptation in China under climate change. Progress in Geography, 35(11): 1411-1419. ]
doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2016.11.011 |
|
6 | 冯士筰. 1982. 风暴潮导论 [M]. 北京: 科学出版社. |
[Feng S Z.1982. Introduction to storm surge. Beijing, China: Science Press. ] | |
7 | 姜彤, 赵晶, 曹丽格, 等. 2018. 共享社会经济路径下中国及分省经济变化预测[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 14(1): 50-58. |
[Jiang T, Zhao J, Cao L G, et al.2018. Projection of national and provincial economy under the shared socioeconomic pathways in China. Climate Change Research, 14(1): 50-58. ] | |
8 |
姜彤, 赵晶, 景丞, 等. 2017. IPCC共享社会经济路径下中国和分省人口变化预估[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 13(2): 128-137.
doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2016.249 |
[Jiang T, Zhao J, Jing C, et al.2017. National and provincial population projected to 2100 under the shared socioeconomic pathways in China. Climate Change Research, 13(2): 128-137. ]
doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2016.249 |
|
9 |
李恒鹏, 杨桂山. 2002. 全球环境变化海岸易损性研究综述[J]. 地球科学进展, 17(1): 104-109.
doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1001-8166.2002.01.016 |
[Li H P, Yang G S.2002. The advance in studies on coastal vulnerability to global change. Advance in Earth Sciences, 17(1): 104-109. ]
doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1001-8166.2002.01.016 |
|
10 | 李阔, 李国胜. 2017. 气候变化影响下2050年广东沿海地区风暴潮风险评估[J]. 科技导报, 35(5): 89-95. |
[Li K, Li G S, 2017. Risk assessment of storm surges in the coastal area of Guangdong Province in year 2050 under climate change. Science & Technology Review, 35(5): 89-95. ] | |
11 |
李响, 段晓峰, 张增健, 等. 2016. 中国沿海地区海平面上升脆弱性区划[J]. 灾害学, 31(4): 103-109.
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2016.04.018 |
[Li X, Duan X F, Zhang Z J, et al.2016. The vulnerability zoning research on the sea-level rise of Chinese Coastal. Journal of Catastrophology, 31(4): 103-109. ]
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2016.04.018 |
|
12 | 施雅风, 杨桂山. 1994. 中国海平面上升及其影响评估: 海平面上升对中国三角洲地区的影响及对策 [M]. 北京: 科学出版社. |
[Shi Y F, Yang G.1994. Sea level rise and its impacts in China: Impacts and countermeasures of sea level rise on China's delta region. Beijing, China: Science Press. ] | |
13 |
施雅风, 朱季文, 谢志仁, 等. 2000. 长江三角洲及毗连地区海平面上升影响预测与防治对策[J]. 中国科学: 地球科学, 30(3): 225-232.
doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1006-9267.2000.03.001 |
[Shi Y F, Zhu J W, Xie Z R, et al.2000. Prediction and countermeasures of sea level rise in the Yangtze River Delta and adjacent areas. Science in China: Earth Sciences, 30(3): 225-232. ]
doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1006-9267.2000.03.001 |
|
14 |
石先武, 国志兴, 张尧, 等. 2016. 风暴潮灾害脆弱性研究综述[J]. 地理科学进展, 35(7): 889-897.
doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2016.07.010 |
[Shi X W, Guo Z X, Zhang Y, et al.2016. A review of research on vulnerability to storm surges. Progress in Geography, 35(7): 889-897. ]
doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2016.07.010 |
|
15 |
石先武, 谭骏, 国志兴, 等. 2013. 风暴潮灾害风险评估研究综述[J]. 地球科学进展, 28(8): 866-874.
doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2013.08.0866 |
[Shi X W, Tan J, Guo Z X, et al.2013. A review of risk assessment of storm surge disaster. Advances in Earth Science, 28(8): 866-874. ]
doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2013.08.0866 |
|
16 |
孙蕾, 石纯. 2007. 沿海城市自然灾害脆弱性评估研究进展[J]. 灾害学, 22(1): 102-105.
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2007.01.023 |
[Sun L, Shi C.2007. Progress in vulnerability assessment of natural disasters in coastal cities. Journal of Catastrophology, 22(1): 102-105. ]
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2007.01.023 |
|
17 | 谭丽荣. 2012. 中国沿海地区风暴潮灾害综合脆弱性评估 [D]. 上海: 华东师范大学. |
[Tan L R.2012. Assessment on comprehensive vulnerability of storm surge disasters of China's coastal regions. Shanghai, China: East China Normal University. ] | |
18 |
王宁, 张利权, 袁琳, 等. 2012. 气候变化影响下海岸带脆弱性评估研究进展[J]. 生态学报, 32(7): 2248-2258.
doi: 10.5846/stxb201109291437 |
[Wang N, Zhang L Q, Yuan L, et al.2012. Research into vulnerability assessment for coastal zones in the context of climate change. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 32(7): 2248-2258. ]
doi: 10.5846/stxb201109291437 |
|
19 |
王腾, 邹欣庆, 李保杰. 2015. 多驱动因素下海岸带脆弱性研究进展[J]. 海洋通报, 34(4): 361-369.
doi: 10.11840/j.issn.1001-6392.2015.04.001 |
[Wang T, Zou X Q, Li B J.2015. Research progress of coastal vulnerability to varied driving factors. Marine Science Bulletin, 34(4): 361-369. ]
doi: 10.11840/j.issn.1001-6392.2015.04.001 |
|
20 |
温家洪, 袁穗萍, 李大力, 等. 2018. 海平面上升及其风险管理[J]. 地球科学进展, 33(4): 350-360.
doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2018.04.0350 |
[Wen J H, Yuan S P, Li D L, et al.2018. Sea level rise and its risk management. Advances in Earth Science, 33(4): 350-360. ]
doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2018.04.0350 |
|
21 | 尹占娥, 许世远. 2012. 城市自然灾害风险评估研究 [M]. 北京: 科学出版社. |
[Yin Z E, Xu S Y.2012. Study on risk assessment of urban natural hazards. Beijing, China: Science Press. ] | |
22 |
郑铣鑫, 武强, 应玉飞, 等. 2001. 中国沿海地区相对海平面上升的影响及地面沉降防治策略[J]. 科技通报, 17(6): 51-55.
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-7119.2001.06.010 |
[Zheng X X, Wu Q, Ying Y F, et al.2001. Impacts of relative sea-level rising and strategies of control of land subsidence in coastal region of China. Bulletin of Science and Technology, 17(6): 51-55. ]
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-7119.2001.06.010 |
|
23 |
周瑶, 王静爱. 2012. 自然灾害脆弱性曲线研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 27(4): 435-442.
doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2012.04.0435 |
[Zhou Y, Wang J A.2012. A review on development of vulnerability curve of natural disaster. Advances in Earth Science, 27(4): 435-442. ]
doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2012.04.0435 |
|
24 |
左军成, 左常圣, 李娟, 等. 2015. 近十年我国海平面变化研究进展[J]. 河海大学学报(自然科学版), 43(5): 442-449.
doi: 10.3876/j.issn.1000-1980.2015.05.008 |
[Zuo J C, Zuo C S, Li J, et al.2015. Advances in research on sea level variations in China from 2006 to 2015. Journal of Hohai University (Natural Sciences), 43(5): 442-449. ]
doi: 10.3876/j.issn.1000-1980.2015.05.008 |
|
25 |
Aerts J C J H, Botzen W J W, Emanuel K, et al.2014. Evaluating flood resilience strategies for coastal megacities[J]. Science, 344: 473-475.
doi: 10.1126/science.1248222 |
26 |
Aerts J C J H, Bouwer L M, Winsemius H C, et al.2016. FLOPROS: An evolving global database of flood protection standards[J]. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 16(5): 1049-1061.
doi: 10.5194/nhess-16-1049-2016 |
27 | Baarse G.1995. Development of an operational tool for Global Vulnerability Assessment (GVA): Update of the number of people at risk due to sea level rise and increasing flooding probability[M]. CZM-Centre Publication No. 3. Hague, the Netherlands: Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management. |
28 |
Bates P D, De Roo A P J.2000. A simple raster-based model for flood inundation simulation[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 236(1): 54-77.
doi: 10.1016/S0022-1694(00)00278-X |
29 |
Bradbrook K.2006. JFLOW: A multiscale two-dimensional dynamic flood model[J]. Water and Environment Journal, 20(2): 79-86.
doi: 10.1111/j.1747-6593.2005.00011.x |
30 |
Brown S, Hanson S, Nicholls R J.2014. Implications of sea-level rise and extreme events around Europe: A review of coastal energy infrastructure[J]. Climatic Change, 122(1-2): 81-95.
doi: 10.1007/s10584-013-0996-9 |
31 |
Cai F, Su X, Liu J, et al.2009. Coastal erosion in China under the condition of global climate change and measures for its prevention[J]. Progress in Natural Science, 19(4): 415-426.
doi: 10.1016/j.pnsc.2008.05.034 |
32 |
Church J A, Clark P U, Cazenave A, et al.2013. Sea-level rise by 2100[J]. Science, 342: 1445. doi: 10.1126/science.342. 6165.1445-a.
doi: 10.1126/science.342.6165.1445-a pmid: 24357297 |
33 |
Cutter S L, Finch C.2008. Temporal and spatial changes in social vulnerability to natural hazards[J]. PNAS, 105(7): 2301-2306.
doi: 10.1073/pnas.0710375105 pmid: 18268336 |
34 |
Fang J, Liu W, Yang S, et al.2017. Spatial-temporal changes of coastal and marine disasters risks and impacts in Mainland China[J]. Ocean & Coastal Management, 139: 125-140.
doi: 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2017.02.003 |
35 |
Fang J, Sun S, Shi P, et al.2014. Assessment and mapping of potential storm surge impacts on global population and economy[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 5(4): 323-331.
doi: 10.1007/s13753-014-0035-0 |
36 | FEMA.2015. HAZUS-MH flood model: Technical manual [EB/OL]. 2015-12-01[2017-08-22]. . |
37 |
Feng J, von Storch H, Jiang W, et al.2015. Assessing changes in extreme sea levels along the coast of China[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 120(12): 8039-8051.
doi: 10.1002/2015JC011336 |
38 |
Feng X, Tsimplis M N.2014. Sea level extremes at the coasts of China[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 119(3): 1593-1608.
doi: 10.1002/2013JC009607 |
39 | Galbraith H, Jones R, Park RA, et al, editors.2003. Ecological forecasting: New tools for coastal and marine ecosystem management[M]. Silver Spring, Maryland: NOAA. |
40 |
Hall J W, Meadowcroft I C, Sayers P B, et al.2003. Integrated flood risk management in England and Wales[J]. Natural Hazards Review, 4(3): 126-135.
doi: 10.1061/(ASCE)1527-6988(2003)4:3(126) |
41 | Hallegatte S, Green C, Nicholls R J, et al.2013. Future flood losses in major coastal cities[J]. Nature Climate Change, 3(9): 802-806. |
42 |
Hanson S, Nicholls R, Ranger N, et al.2011. A global ranking of port cities with high exposure to climate extremes[J]. Climatic Change, 104(1): 89-111.
doi: 10.1007/s10584-010-9977-4 |
43 |
Hinkel J, Klein R J T.2009. Integrating knowledge to assess coastal vulnerability to sea-level rise: The development of the DIVA tool[J]. Global Environmental Change, 19(3): 384-395.
doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2009.03.002 |
44 |
Hinkel J, Lincke D, Vafeidis A T, et al.2014. Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise[J]. PNAS, 111(9): 3292-3297.
doi: 10.1073/pnas.1222469111 pmid: 24596428 |
45 |
Hinkel J, Jaeger C, Nicholls R J, et al.2015. Sea-level rise scenarios and coastal risk management[J]. Nature Climate Change, 5(3): 188-190.
doi: 10.1038/nclimate2505 |
46 | Hoozemans F M J, Marchand M, Pennekamp H A.1993. Sea level rise: A global vulnerability assessment: Vulnerability assessment for population, coastal wetlands and rice production on a global scale[M]. Hague, the Netherlands: Delft Hydraulics. |
47 |
Hu P, Zhang Q, Shi P, et al.2018. Flood-induced mortality across the globe: Spatiotemporal pattern and influencing factors[J]. Science of the Total Environment, 643: 171-182.
doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.06.197 |
48 | IPCC. 1990. Intergovernmental panel on climate change climate change 1990: First assessment report (AR1) [M]. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. |
49 | IPCC. 2013. Intergovernmental panel on climate change climate change 2013: Fifth assessment report (AR5) [M]. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. |
50 |
Jevrejeva S, Grinsted A, Moore J C.2014. Upper limit for sea level projections by 2100[J]. Environmental Research Letters, 9, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104008.
doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104008 |
51 |
Jongman B, Ward P J, Aerts J C J H.2012. Global exposure to river and coastal flooding: Long term trends and changes[J]. Global Environmental Change, 22(4): 823-835.
doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.07.004 |
52 |
Jonkman S N, Vrijling J K.2008. Loss of life due to floods[J]. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 1(1): 43-56.
doi: 10.1111/j.1753-318X.2008.00006.x |
53 |
Kang L, Ma L, Liu Y.2016. Evaluation of farmland losses from sea level rise and storm surges in the Pearl River Delta region under global climate change[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 26(4): 439-456.
doi: 10.1007/s11442-016-1278-z |
54 |
Kebede A S, Nicholls R J.2012. Exposure and vulnerability to climate extremes: Population and asset exposure to coastal flooding in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania[J]. Regional Environmental Change, 12(1): 81-94.
doi: 10.1007/s10113-011-0239-4 |
55 |
Klein R J T, Nicholls R J.1999. Assessment of coastal vulnerability to climate change[J]. AMBIO, 28(2): 182-187.
doi: 10.1080/027868299304679 |
56 |
Kopp R E, Horton R M, Little C M, et al.2014. Probabilistic 21st and 22nd century sea-level projections at a global network of tide-gauge sites[J]. Earth's Future, 2(8): 383-406.
doi: 10.1002/2014EF000239 |
57 |
Lamb R, Keef C, Tawn J, et al.2010. A new method to assess the risk of local and widespread flooding on rivers and coasts[J]. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 3(4): 323-336.
doi: 10.1111/j.1753-318X.2010.01081.x |
58 | Lemmen D S, Warren F J, James T S, et al.2016. Canada's marine coasts in a changing climate [R]. Ottawa, Canada: Government of Canada. |
59 |
Lin N, Emanuel K, Oppenheimer M, et al.2012. Physically based assessment of hurricane surge threat under climate change[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2(6): 462-467.
doi: 10.1038/nclimate1389 |
60 |
Lin N, Emanuel K.2016. Grey swan tropical cyclones[J]. Nature Climate Change, 6(1): 106-111.
doi: 10.1038/nclimate2777 |
61 | Linham M M, Nicholls R J.2012. Adaptation technologies for coastal erosion and flooding: A review[J]. Proceedings of the ICE—Maritime Engineering, 165(3): 95-112. |
62 |
Liu J, Wen J, Huang Y, et al.2015. Human settlement and regional development in the context of climate change: A spatial analysis of low elevation coastal zones in China[J]. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 20(4): 527-546.
doi: 10.1007/s11027-013-9506-7 |
63 | Lowe J, Howard T, Pardaens A, et al.2009. UK Climate Projections science report: Marine and coastal projections[M]. Exeter, UK: Met Office Hadley Centre. |
64 |
Ma Z, Melville D S, Liu J, et al.2014. Rethinking China's new great wall[J]. Science, 346: 912-914.
doi: 10.1126/science.1257258 |
65 |
Marcos M, Tsimplis M N, Shaw A G P.2009. Sea level extremes in southern Europe[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 114, doi: 10.1029/2008JC004912.
doi: 10.1029/2008JC004912 |
66 | Mawdsley R J, Haigh I D.2016. Spatial and temporal variability and long-term trends in skew surges globally[J]. Frontiers in Marine Science, 3. doi: 10.3389/fmars.2016.00029. |
67 |
Mcleod E, Poulter B, Hinkel J, et al.2010. Sea-level rise impact models and environmental conservation: A review of models and their applications[J]. Ocean & Coastal Management, 53(9): 507-517.
doi: 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2010.06.009 |
68 |
Menéndez M, Woodworth P L.2010. Changes in extreme high water levels based on a quasi-global tide-gauge data set[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 115. doi: 10.1029/2009JC005997.
doi: 10.1029/2009JC005997 |
69 |
Muis S, Verlaan M, Winsemius H C, et al.2016. A global reanalysis of storm surges and extreme sea levels[J]. Nature Communications, 7. doi: 10.1038/ncomms11969.
doi: 10.1038/ncomms11969 pmid: 4931224 |
70 |
Nicholls R J.2004. Coastal flooding and wetland loss in the 21st century: Changes under the SRES climate and socio-economic scenarios[J]. Global Environmental Change, 14(1): 69-86.
doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.10.007 |
71 |
Nicholls R J, Cazenave A.2010. Sea-level rise and its impact on coastal zones[J]. Science, 328: 1517-1520.
doi: 10.1126/science.1185782 pmid: 20558707 |
72 |
Nicholls R J, Hanson S E, Lowe J A, et al.2014. Sea-level scenarios for evaluating coastal impacts[J]. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 5(1): 129-150.
doi: 10.1002/wcc.253 |
73 |
Nicholls R J, Hoozemans F M J, Marchand M.1999. Increasing flood risk and wetland losses due to global sea-level rise: Regional and global analyses[J]. Global Environmental Change, 9: S69-S87.
doi: 10.1016/S0959-3780(99)00019-9 |
74 |
Nicholls R J, Mimura N.1998. Regional issues raised by sea-level rise and their policy implications[J]. Climate Research, 11(1): 5-18.
doi: 10.3354/cr011005 |
75 | Parris A S, Bromirski P, Burkett V, et al.2012. Global sea level rise scenarios for the United States National Climate Assessment [R]. NOAA Tech Memo OAR Climate Program Office. |
76 | Pelling M, Blackburn S.2014. Megacities and the coast: Risk, resilience and transformation[M]. London, UK: Routledge. |
77 |
Rahmstorf S.2017. Rising hazard of storm-surge flooding[J]. PNAS, 114(45): 11806-11808.
doi: 10.1073/pnas.1715895114 pmid: 29078412 |
78 |
Rosenzweig C, Solecki W D.2010. Introduction to climate change adaptation in New York City: Building a risk management response[J]. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1196: 1-17.
doi: 10.1111/j.1749-6632.2009.05415.x pmid: 20545644 |
79 |
Rowley R J, Kostelnick J C, Braaten D, et al.2007. Risk of rising sea level to population and land area[J]. Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union, 88(9): 105-107.
doi: 10.1029/2007EO090001 |
80 | Sayers P B, Horritt M, Penning-Rowsell E, et al.2017. Climate change risk assessment 2017: Projections of future flood risk in the UK [R]. London, UK: Committee on Climate Change. |
81 |
Shibayama T.2015. Field surveys of recent storm surge disasters[J]. Procedia Engineering, 116: 179-186.
doi: 10.1016/j.proeng.2015.08.280 |
82 |
Spencer T, Schuerch M, Nicholls R J, et al.2016. Global coastal wetland change under sea-level rise and related stresses: The DIVA wetland change model[J]. Global and Planetary Change, 139: 15-30.
doi: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2015.12.018 |
83 |
Sterr H.2008. Assessment of vulnerability and adaptation to sea-level rise for the coastal zone of Germany[J]. Journal of Coastal Research, 24(2): 380-393.
doi: 10.2112/07A-0011.1 |
84 | Su S, Pi J, Wan C, et al.2015. Categorizing social vulnerability patterns in Chinese coastal cities[J]. Ocean & Coastal Management, 116: 1-8. |
85 | Syvitski J P M, Kettner A J, Overeem I, et al.2009. Sinking deltas due to human activities[J]. Nature Geoscience, 2(10): 681-686. |
86 | Townsend.2006. The federal response to hurricane katrina-lessons learned [R]. Washington, DC: White House. |
87 | UNISDR.2009. Terminology on disaster risk reduction [R]. New York, NY: UNISDR. |
88 |
Vousdoukas M I, Mentaschi L, Voukouvalas E, et al.2018. Climatic and socioeconomic controls of future coastal flood risk in Europe[J]. Nature Climate Change, 8(9): 776-780.
doi: 10.1038/s41558-018-0260-4 |
89 |
Wahl T, Chambers D P.2015. Evidence for multidecadal variability in US extreme sea level records[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 120(3): 1527-1544.
doi: 10.1002/2014JC010443 |
90 |
Wahl T, Haigh I D, Nicholls R J, et al.2017. Understanding extreme sea levels for broad-scale coastal impact and adaptation analysis[J]. Nature Communications, 8. doi: 10.1038/ncomms16075.
doi: 10.1038/ncomms16075 pmid: 5504349 |
91 | Wahl T, Jain S, Bender J, et al.2015. Increasing risk of compound flooding from storm surge and rainfall for major US cities[J]. Nature Climate Change, 5(12): 1093-1097. |
92 |
Wang J, Gao W, Xu S, et al.2012. Evaluation of the combined risk of sea level rise, land subsidence, and storm surges on the coastal areas of Shanghai, China[J]. Climatic Change, 115(3-4): 537-558.
doi: 10.1007/s10584-012-0468-7 |
93 |
Ward P J, Jongman B, Aerts J C J H, et al.2017. A global framework for future costs and benefits of river-flood protection in urban areas[J]. Nature Climate Change, 7(9): 642-646.
doi: 10.1038/nclimate3350 |
94 | Willis H H, Narayanan A, Fischbach J R, et al.2016. Current and future exposure of infrastructure in the United States to Natural Hazards[M]. California, CA: RAND. |
95 |
Woodruff J D, Irish J L, Camargo S J.2013. Coastal flooding by tropical cyclones and sea-level rise[J]. Nature, 504: 44-52.
doi: 10.1038/nature12855 pmid: 24305147 |
96 |
Woodworth P L, Blackman D L.2004. Evidence for systematic changes in extreme high waters since the mid-1970s[J]. Journal of Climate, 17(6): 1190-1197.
doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<1190:EFSCIE>2.0.CO;2 |
97 |
Woodworth P L, Menéndez M, Gehrels W R.2011. Evidence for century-timescale acceleration in mean sea levels and for recent changes in extreme sea levels[J]. Surveys in Geophysics, 32(4-5): 603-618.
doi: 10.1007/s10712-011-9112-8 |
98 |
Wu S, Feng A, Gao J, et al.2017. Shortening the recurrence periods of extreme water levels under future sea-level rise[J]. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 31(10): 2573-2584.
doi: 10.1007/s00477-016-1327-2 |
99 |
Yin J, Yin Z, Xu S.2013. Composite risk assessment of typhoon-induced disaster for China's coastal area[J]. Natural Hazards, 69(3): 1423-1434.
doi: 10.1007/s11069-013-0755-2 |
100 |
Yin J, Yu D, Lin N, et al.2017. Evaluating the cascading impacts of sea level rise and coastal flooding on emergency response spatial accessibility in Lower Manhattan, New York City[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 555: 648-658.
doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.10.067 |
101 |
Yin J, Yu D, Yin Z, et al.2016. Evaluating the impact and risk of pluvial flash flood on intra-urban road network: A case study in the city center of Shanghai, China[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 537: 138-145.
doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.03.037 |
102 |
Yu D, Lane S N.2006a. Urban fluvial flood modelling using a two-dimensional diffusion-wave treatment, part 1: Mesh resolution effects[J]. Hydrological Processes, 20(7): 1541-1565.
doi: 10.1002/hyp.5935 |
103 |
Yu D, Lane S N.2006b. Urban fluvial flood modelling using a two-dimensional diffusion-wave treatment, part 2: Development of a sub-grid-scale treatment[J]. Hydrological Processes, 20(7): 1567-1583.
doi: 10.1002/hyp.5936 |
104 |
Zheng F F, Westra S, Leonard M, et al.2014. Modeling dependence between extreme rainfall and storm surge to estimate coastal flooding risk[J]. Water Resources Research, 50(3): 2050-2071.
doi: 10.1002/2013WR014616 |
105 |
Zscheischler J, Westra S, Hurk B J, et al.2018. Future climate risk from compound events[J]. Nature Climate Change, 8: 469-477.
doi: 10.1038/s41558-018-0156-3 |
[1] | FENG Yingbin, LONG Hualou. Progress and prospect of research on spatial reconstruction of rural settlements in mountainous areas of China [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2020, 39(5): 866-879. |
[2] | Hui WANG, Changchun SONG. Regional ecological risk assessment of wetlands in the Sanjiang Plain [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2019, 38(6): 872-882. |
[3] | Hui ZHANG, Cheng LI, Jiong CHENG, Zhifeng WU, Yanyan WU. A review of urban flood risk assessment based on the framework of hazard-exposure-vulnerability [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2019, 38(2): 175-190. |
[4] | Shuying ZHANG, Jiaming LIU, He ZHU, Tao LI. Review of progress in international research on ecotourism and implications [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2018, 37(9): 1201-1215. |
[5] | Ning ZHANG, Dawei WANG. Drug-related crime risk assessment and predictive policing based on risk terrain modeling [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2018, 37(8): 1131-1139. |
[6] | Hualou LONG, Shuangshuang TU. Theoretical thinking of rural restructuring [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2018, 37(5): 581-590. |
[7] | Liang WU, Qi QIN, Dan ZHANG, Shengkui CHENG. Indian Ocean Passages and their geopolitical impacts on China [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2018, 37(11): 1510-1520. |
[8] | Jingyun ZHENG, Xiuqi FANG, Shaohong WU. Recent progress of climate change research in physical geography studies from China [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2018, 37(1): 16-27. |
[9] | Fuqiang TIAN, Tao CHENG, You LU, Zongxue XU. A review on socio-hydrology and urban hydrology [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2018, 37(1): 46-56. |
[10] | Xiaodong SUN, Yating HOU. Research on negative impacts and responsibility of cruise tourism [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2017, 36(5): 569-584. |
[11] | Hui MENG, Chunyan LI, Ruolin ZHANG, Yamin LI. Risk assessment of geological hazards for counties and districts of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2017, 36(3): 327-334. |
[12] | Dalong LI, Shaofeng JIA, Aifeng LV, Wenbin ZHU. Regional difference of cost effectiveness of low impact development (LID) technical facilities in Chinese cities [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2017, 36(11): 1402-1412. |
[13] | Min TAN, Kai LIU, Lin LIU, Yuanhui ZHU, Dashan WANG. Spatialization of population in the Pearl River Delta in 30 m grids using random forest model [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2017, 36(10): 1304-1312. |
[14] | Haibo HU. Research progress of surging urban flood risks [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2016, 35(9): 1075-1086. |
[15] | Guoqing LI, Xiaobing LI. Research progress of wind farm impact on the environment [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2016, 35(8): 1017-1026. |
|