中国省域尺度17部门资本存量的时空特征分析

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2019.04.007

Abstract

Abstract:

As the intensity and frequency of natural hazard-induced disasters and human and asset exposure increase, the losses caused by these disasters have become increasingly serious. It is particularly important to estimate the capital stock, which is an indicator of economic exposure, in the assessment of disaster losses. At present, time series data of capital stock by economic sectors at the provincial scale in China are largely unavailable. Thus, this study used the perpetual inventory method to establish a capital stock database of 17 sectors for individual provinces in China from 2003 to 2015. The conclusions are as follows: Interannual changes of the total capital stock and direct losses of disasters nationwide both showed an increasing trend. At the provincial scale, the correlation analysis shows that there was a significant positive correlation between them (r= 0.3) at the 99% confidence level. The capital stock of 17 sectors for individual provinces also showed an increasing trend, but the growth rate was different. Among the provinces with the fastest growth rates in the 17 sectors, the growth rate of resident services, repair and other services in Heilongjiang Province was the fastest, which increased 454.3 times. This is followed by leasing and business services in Qinghai Province (398.3 times), finance in Jiangsu Province (295.1 times), and scientific research, technical services and geological exploration in Anhui Province (125.1 times). The top four sectors with the highest capital stock in the 17 sectors in 2015 were real estate; industry; transport, storage and post; and water conservancy, environment and public facilities management, and together their proportion was above 60%. The provinces with the most capital stock in these four sectors were Jiangsu and Guangdong. The study results are helpful for further understanding exposure of capital stock in individual provinces and various sectors from a temporal and spatial perspective, and providing important references for disaster prevention and mitigation work of provincial disaster risk managers.

Key words: provincial scale, 17 sectors, capital stock, economic exposure, disaster loss, China

Li LIU, Ning LI, Zhengtao ZHANG, Jieling FENG, Xi CHEN, Kou BAI, Chengfang HUANG. Spatiotemporal distribution of capital stock exposure of 17 sectors for individual provinces in China[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2019, 38(4): 546-555.

Figures/Tables 8

Tab.1

Fig. 1

Tab.2

Growth rate of capital stock in 17 sectors of China and individual provinces, 2003-2015(倍)"

	农林牧渔业	工业	建筑业	交通运输、仓储和邮政业	信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业	批发和零售业	住宿和餐饮业	金融业	房地产业	租赁和商务服务业	科学研究和技术服务业	水利、环境和公共设施管理业	居民服务、修理和其他服务业	教育	卫生和社会工作	文化、体育和娱乐业	公共管理、社会保障和社会组织
北京市	9.0	2.4	-0.7	4.8	0.8	2.0	0.6	24.6	0.7	0.3	1.4	1.3	2.4	1.2	2.0	2.9	-0.2
天津市	30.6	16.2	4.6	7.9	1.4	29.8	51.2	113.4	5.8	162.2	106.4	6.8	34.6	2.6	3.2	2.0	3.8
河北省	3.9	16.2	-0.3	13.6	1.7	11.7	8.8	6.9	8.3	16.6	6.1	24.1	4.3	2.2	13.5	16.9	0.2
山西省	21.4	7.9	3.4	8.5	0.9	18.0	19.7	-0.1	6.7	84.0	97.7	26.6	331.6	6.6	16.1	15.9	3.4
内蒙古自治区	7.4	18.7	39.0	5.8	6.5	26.1	17.8	7.1	2.5	73.1	14.1	8.0	27.1	4.1	7.0	21.3	5.2
辽宁省	5.4	16.8	1.6	10.5	2.2	16.9	11.3	13.6	5.8	56.9	16.4	36.7	69.4	2.6	17.3	11.0	1.4
吉林省	4.3	22.7	9.6	9.7	11.6	42.7	12.4	17.1	7.3	51.9	36.3	17.9	43.0	2.2	19.8	10.5	2.9
黑龙江省	5.3	20.4	13.4	10.5	0.9	37.6	102.0	14.6	6.4	18.2	33.5	18.6	454.3	2.1	18.7	8.3	1.6
上海市	1.0	0.4	-0.4	1.4	0.7	1.5	5.6	86.5	0.5	35.8	1.5	4.8	0.5	1.0	3.2	7.0	-0.3
江苏省	13.8	9.8	1.8	2.1	3.3	18.1	21.0	295.1	6.3	35.6	16.6	3.0	12.1	0.9	12.3	24.5	1.0
浙江省	1.5	2.2	-0.4	5.1	0.9	8.8	15.0	33.0	6.3	5.1	6.3	2.2	1.9	1.1	3.4	5.3	1.3
安徽省	9.1	26.0	3.1	6.4	4.7	64.8	32.5	39.0	11.9	56.7	125.1	46.6	12.8	4.9	25.6	67.3	2.1
福建省	6.9	19.8	1.8	9.8	2.3	41.0	36.1	19.4	9.1	10.6	15.7	37.0	2.7	2.8	11.6	16.0	4.1
江西省	10.0	25.6	18.8	1.3	0.1	33.5	24.5	5.1	8.2	45.5	25.3	8.1	57.5	1.7	2.2	18.7	0.8
山东省	3.6	9.8	3.4	6.9	0.1	13.3	11.5	7.9	7.0	8.4	20.6	3.6	41.4	1.1	10.1	26.6	1.4
河南省	5.8	15.7	8.8	3.4	1.3	37.6	61.7	9.6	16.9	59.3	19.1	16.8	11.0	5.0	12.4	22.9	0.2
湖北省	8.7	14.5	0.1	8.4	0.5	13.5	23.6	8.7	12.4	43.3	18.5	88.4	88.4	1.7	9.5	24.7	7.2
湖南省	9.6	17.7	31.7	6.3	2.9	27.1	16.9	23.4	7.5	19.6	28.1	19.2	19.2	5.1	11.5	3.2	5.2
广东省	4.6	5.7	-0.6	14.1	0.3	22.7	24.4	4.1	3.2	9.6	4.8	3.3	3.3	0.9	4.8	6.9	-0.1
广西壮族自治区	23.7	21.7	24.3	9.4	1.3	52.2	9.8	13.5	5.7	60.3	15.6	37.6	37.6	9.1	12.4	25.2	7.4
海南省	0.2	5.7	6.6	9.7	13.3	32.4	6.9	6.6	38.0	9.0	5.8	34.0	34.0	4.5	18.6	14.1	4.7
重庆市	20.6	23.2	0.7	13.9	0.4	12.5	10.2	2.4	2.2	41.2	9.6	91.3	91.3	2.5	7.0	10.3	1.5
四川省	8.9	12.1	17.1	9.5	1.3	20.0	30.1	10.8	7.3	52.1	9.0	0.9	0.9	3.9	17.2	10.1	4.8
贵州省	4.0	4.7	23.5	7.0	0.1	16.4	69.0	1.3	16.8	72.9	24.5	44.2	44.2	7.4	3.7	15.0	0.2
云南省	7.5	14.4	1.7	6.6	-0.3	17.2	9.1	0.5	47.8	156.5	10.7	1.4	1.4	7.9	13.7	12.3	3.3
西藏自治区	6.9	8.7	53.4	5.8	0.7	13.4	50.1	19.0	27.1	351.9	6.3	34.5	34.5	6.0	5.0	13.7	1.5
陕西省	8.2	14.4	19.6	5.5	2.7	18.8	9.9	8.5	13.4	7.7	22.7	6.3	6.3	1.7	29.0	9.4	6.8
甘肃省	5.3	11.2	76.3	6.9	2.6	17.6	68.8	8.6	21.0	34.0	21.7	22.3	22.3	6.2	7.1	26.4	6.3
青海省	2.9	9.1	11.2	6.9	37.2	3.9	6.7	5.0	11.6	398.3	10.4	44.2	44.2	12.8	14.7	60.7	5.3
宁夏回族自治区	1.8	13.1	15.6	3.9	1.8	4.3	1.4	8.3	5.2	71.2	1.4	32.2	32.2	4.2	7.8	15.6	1.9
新疆维吾尔自治区	0.5	12.3	6.3	6.7	1.3	2.1	3.2	1.2	4.0	48.5	4.2	2.3	2.3	4.2	3.6	6.7	4.4

Tab.2

Tab.3

Fig.2

Tab.4

Fig.3

Fig.4

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Spatiotemporal distribution of capital stock exposure of 17 sectors for individual provinces in China

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地区	农林牧渔业	工业	建筑业	交通运输、仓储和邮政业	信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业	批发和零售业	住宿和餐饮业	金融业	房地产业	租赁和商务服务业	科学研究和技术服务业	水利、环境和公共设施管理业	居民服务、修理和其他服务业	教育	卫生和社会工作	文化、体育和娱乐业	公共管理、社会保障和社会组织
东部	7.5	8.8	1.6	7.5	2.5	18.1	18.1	59.7	8.5	29.3	19.5	9.3	13.7	1.8	8.3	12.2	1.6
中部	10.8	17.9	11.0	5.7	1.7	32.4	29.8	14.3	10.6	51.4	56.6	24.1	86.7	4.1	12.9	25.4	3.1
西部	8.1	13.6	24.1	7.3	4.6	17.0	23.9	7.2	13.7	114.0	14.5	12.0	28.7	5.8	10.7	18.9	4.0
东北	5.0	19.9	8.2	10.2	4.9	32.4	41.9	15.1	6.5	42.3	28.7	24.4	188.9	2.3	18.6	9.9	2.0

部门	资本存量最多省份	资本存量/100亿元	部门	资本存量最多省份	资本存量/100亿元
农林牧渔业	河南省	62.7	租赁和商务服务业	江苏省	26.0
工业	江苏省	1105.2	科学研究和技术服务业	江苏省	14.3
建筑业	甘肃省	30.4	水利、环境和公共设施管理业	江苏省	213.2
交通运输、仓储和邮政业	广东省	171.0	居民服务、修理和其他服务业	山东省	17.4
信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业	广东省	18.4	教育	山东省	49.0
批发和零售业	山东省	89.3	卫生和社会工作	山东省	14.2
住宿和餐饮业	广东省	23.3	文化、体育和娱乐业	山东省	43.1
金融业	江苏省	2.8	公共管理、社会保障和社会组织	山东省	105.0
房地产业	江苏省	620.1

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