“一带一路”国家粮食贸易网络空间格局及其演化机制

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2019.10.018

Abstract

Abstract:

Trade of agricultural commodities is an important part of the economic and trade cooperation between the Belt and Road countries, but the existing trade theories cannot fully explain the pattern and change of the cereal trade network between these countries. This study set up a four-dimensional analytical framework, combined social network analysis with spatial econometric analysis, and analyzed the spatial structure characteristics and mechanism of change of cereal trade network between the Belt and Road countries based on the United Nations Comtrade data from 1993 to 2016. The results show that: 1) The cereal trade network density of the Belt and Road countries is constantly increasing while the trade relations and trade intensity between these countries are constantly deepening. The position of the Belt and Road countries in the global grain trade network is on the rise and there is a clear phenomenon of trade club. 2) The network of trade relations has evolved from non-nuclear to multi-nuclear, and then to reshaping. 3) China's cereal trade with other Belt and Road countries has undergone an evolution from export-oriented to import-oriented. The Belt and Road initiative has enhanced China's position in the global grain trade network. 4) The evolution of the national cereal trade network of the Belt and Road countries is the product of resource endowment, economic environment, cultural identity, and political games. Compared with other trade networks, grain trade network has distinct characteristics and stronger stability. This study may provide some guidance for promoting cereal trade cooperation among the Belt and Road countries, optimizing trade structure, and ensuring food security.

Key words: cereal trade network, social network analysis, mechanism of change, the Belt and Road initiative

CHEN Yiwen,LI Erling. Spatial pattern and evolution of cereal trade networks among the Belt and Road countries[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2019, 38(10): 1643-1654.

Figures/Tables 6

Fig.1

Fig.2

Tab.1

Top 10 countries of centrality index in the cereal trade network of the Belt and Road region, 1993-2016"

1993年					1998年					2003年
中介度			度中心性		中介度			度中心性		中介度			度中心性
国家	得分		国家	得分	国家	得分		国家	得分	国家	得分		国家	得分
中国	1.00		中国	1.00	印度	1.00		泰国	1.00	泰国	1.00		泰国	1.00
泰国	0.52		泰国	0.90	泰国	0.94		中国	0.95	中国	0.64		中国	0.88
印度	0.24		印度	0.68	中国	0.80		印度	0.95	埃及	0.64		印度	0.84
土耳其	0.22		土耳其	0.65	俄罗斯	0.50		乌克兰	0.86	巴基斯坦	0.61		巴基斯坦	0.82
捷克	0.19		沙特阿拉伯	0.40	乌克兰	0.45		俄罗斯	0.82	印度	0.42		俄罗斯	0.79
罗马尼亚	0.12		罗马尼亚	0.38	沙特阿拉伯	0.35		巴基斯坦	0.66	俄罗斯	0.41		菲律宾	0.77
沙特阿拉伯	0.04		斯里兰卡	0.30	巴基斯坦	0.22		匈牙利	0.64	菲律宾	0.41		乌克兰	0.73
克罗地亚	0.03		新家坡	0.30	哈萨克斯坦	0.20		哈萨克斯坦	0.61	哈萨克斯坦	0.25		哈萨克斯坦	0.64
匈牙利	0.02		马来西亚	0.28	埃及	0.20		土耳其	0.61	乌克兰	0.23		埃及	0.63
斯里兰卡	0.02		匈牙利	0.28	土耳其	0.16		埃及	0.59	越南	0.19		越南	0.63
2008年					2013年					2016年
中介度		度中心性			中介度		度中心性			中介度		度中心性
国家	得分	国家		得分	国家	得分	国家		得分	国家	得分	国家		得分
泰国	1.00	泰国		1.00	印度	1.00	印度		1.00	泰国	1.00	印度		1.00
中国	0.80	中国		0.97	泰国	0.67	泰国		0.93	印度	0.77	泰国		0.97
巴基斯坦	0.55	巴基斯坦		0.92	越南	0.63	俄罗斯		0.90	中国	0.69	俄罗斯		0.97
俄罗斯	0.48	印度		0.90	中国	0.61	乌克兰		0.90	俄罗斯	0.69	乌克兰		0.97
印度	0.45	乌克兰		0.88	俄罗斯	0.58	巴基斯坦		0.88	巴基斯坦	0.65	巴基斯坦		0.95
乌克兰	0.41	越南		0.85	乌克兰	0.55	中国		0.87	乌克兰	0.63	中国		0.93
越南	0.39	俄罗斯		0.83	巴基斯坦	0.49	越南		0.83	越南	0.44	土耳其		0.88
埃及	0.30	埃及		0.78	土耳其	0.36	土耳其		0.82	土耳其	0.44	越南		0.86
阿联酋	0.23	阿联酋		0.75	哈萨克斯坦	0.32	阿联酋		0.65	黎巴嫩	0.27	阿联酋		0.76
哈萨克斯坦	0.21	土耳其		0.69	阿联酋	0.17	罗马尼亚		0.63	阿联酋	0.26	罗马尼亚		0.66

Tab.1

Fig.3

Fig.4

Fig.5

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Spatial pattern and evolution of cereal trade networks among the Belt and Road countries

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