印度洋通道及其对中国地缘环境影响

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2018.11.007

Abstract

Abstract:

The Indian Ocean Passages (IOPs) have been regarded as the lifeline for China's energy and resources access, trade, as well as communication and cooperation with South and West Asian, African, and European countries. With the reshuffle of geopolitical power of the United States in the Asia-Pacific region and the shift of China's geopolitical position with its neighbors, China is in great need of reducing its dependence on the traditional IOPs through the South China Sea and the Malacca Strait and exploring alternative IOPs to leverage its geopolitical risks in these regions, improve domestic economic development pattern, push for further opening-up and development in the border areas in Southwest China provinces, and promote cooperations with Indian Ocean countries. This study offered a preliminary definition and analyzed the characteristics of a passage, summarized current and potential passages in the Indian Ocean, analyzed the strategic value, future prospect, and geopolitical impacts of potential passages for China, and provided novel perspectives and insights for the building of China's Indian Ocean strategy as well as the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative.

Key words: Indian Ocean Passage(IOP), the Belt and Road Initiative, geopolitical impacts, Malacca Strait

Liang WU, Qi QIN, Dan ZHANG, Shengkui CHENG. Indian Ocean Passages and their geopolitical impacts on China[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2018, 37(11): 1510-1520.

Figures/Tables 4

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References 20

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名称	通道类型	相关国家	通道到波斯湾的路径	通道路径距离/km	当前到波斯湾的路径	当前路径距离/km	通道节省距离/km	通道长度/km
马六甲海峡	航运	新加坡	珠三角—马六甲—波斯湾	9000	—	—	—	1000
中巴经济走廊	陆路	巴基斯坦	喀什—卡拉奇—波斯湾	5000	喀什—上海—波斯湾	15400	10400	4000
孟中印缅经济走廊	水陆联运	缅甸	昆明—仰光—波斯湾	7800	昆明—防城港—波斯湾	9700	1900	2300
孟中印缅经济走廊	陆路	缅甸、印度、孟加拉	昆明—达卡—波斯湾	7800	昆明—防城港—波斯湾	9700	1100	3000
中尼印经济走廊	陆路	尼泊尔、印度	拉萨—樟木—加尔各答—波斯湾	8600	拉萨—上海—波斯湾	14300	6900	1900
中南半岛经济走廊	陆运	越南、老挝、泰国、缅甸、新加坡	南宁—曼谷—新加坡—波斯湾	7400	南宁—马六甲—波斯湾	9000	1500	3000
克拉运河	航运	泰国	珠三角—克拉运河—波斯湾	7500	珠三角—马六甲—波斯湾	9000	900	120

名称	建设进度	安全风险	所在国态度	国内需求
马六甲海峡	--	南海局势、美国霸权、海盗、非法移民、环境污染等	新加坡、马来西亚和印度尼西亚目前支持自由航行	沿海省份需求较多
中巴经济走廊	瓜达尔港已开港,多个早收项目启动;改造中巴公路,喀喇昆仑山脉路段建设和维护难度较大	喀喇昆仑地区地势险峻、地质脆弱、多地震滑坡等灾害、南部多洪旱灾害;巴北部和西部恐怖和部族势力猖獗	巴基斯坦高度支持走廊的规划建设	主要是新疆
孟中印缅经济走廊	国内段接近通车,境外段有待改造升级;南线属平原丘陵,难度较低,中北线道路新建和改造需穿过高山,难度稍高;河运需疏浚伊江河道	缅北民地武问题;中印边界问题;罗兴亚人问题;翻越高黎贡山施工难度大;孟印缅境内气象灾害较多	孟加拉国高度支持、缅甸谨慎支持、印度态度谨慎	主要是云南,四川、重庆和贵州有一定需求
中尼印经济走廊	拉日铁路已于2014年通车;中尼公路拉萨至吉隆口岸连通,吉隆口岸至加德满都和加尔各答路段有待提升	翻越喜马拉雅山脉地震和泥石流灾害较多,地质风险较高;尼印关系变数较大	尼泊尔表态支持,但印度对中国有所防范,对尼泊尔钳制意图明显	主要是西藏
中国—中南半岛经济走廊	泰新铁路已通车。昆曼公路已于2013年通车,中老铁路2016年开工,预计2021年贯通	有一定的气象灾害风险	沿途各国均表示支持	主要为云南和广西,广东、贵州、湖南等有一定需求
克拉运河	未动工	灾害较少;存在水体污染的可能性	泰国对于是否开发态度仍不明确	沿海省份需求较多

Indian Ocean Passages and their geopolitical impacts on China

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