PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY ›› 2014, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (12): 1692-1703.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2014.12.013

• Orginal Article • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Simulation of typhoon storm surge impacts in Shanghai based on storm surge scenarios and disaster prevention measures

Chengcheng SONG1,2(), Mengya LI1,2, Jun WANG1,2(), Shiyuan XU1,2, Zhenlou CHEN1,2   

  1. 1.School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
    2. Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science of Ministry of Education, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
  • Online:2014-12-19 Published:2014-12-19


In order to study coastal flooding in Shanghai caused by typhoons following typical paths, the possible effects of the six severe typhoon storm surges were analyzed using MIKE21 Flow Model. Based on the probable maximum intensity of tropical cyclones and by taking into consideration sea level rise, topographic change, and seawalls subsidence, 12 scenarios were analyzed for potential storm surge impacts. The results show that, because of the high standard protective seawalls, the possibility of overtopping inundation resulting from storm surges is extremely low under the present condition. However, as the strength of influencing factors increases over time, overtopping inundation becomes more likely. In 2040, the inundation caused by a tropical cyclone landing in Shanghai can be very large, and water depth can reach 3.0 meters or more in some local areas. About 25% of seawalls would be at risk of flooding , and the inundation area of the storm surges can reach 910 km2 under the proposed scenarios. Storm surge disaster prevention measures include protecting the source areas of water supply to the city, creating urban flood retention space, increasing the protection standard of seawalls, enhancing the drainage capability of the city, and optimizing the distribution of the emergency shelters.

Key words: storm surge, scenario simulation, MIKE21 FM, hazard analysis, spatial countermeasure, Shanghai

CLC Number: 

  • X43