PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY ›› 2012, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (12): 1747-1754.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2012.12.022

• Original Articles • Previous Articles    

Quantitative Analysis of the Impacts of Climate and Socio-economic Driving Factors of Land Use Change on the Ecosystem Services Value in the Qinghai Lake Area

LI Huimei1,2, ZHANG Anlu2, GAO Zebing1, ZHUO Macuo1   

  1. 1. School of Public Administration and Policy, Qinghai University for Nationality, Xining 810007, China;
    2. College of Land Management, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430000, China
  • Received:2012-03-01 Revised:2012-09-01 Online:2012-12-25 Published:2012-12-25

Abstract: By calculating the value of ecosystem services for wetland, grassland, forestland and farmland in the Qinghai Lake area from 2000 to 2008, presents a quantitative analysis of the sensitivity and the correlation between the changes of ecosystem services value and climate as well as socio-economic factors impacting land use changes including NPP(E), GDP, personal savings and urbanization level, and, by doing so, identifies the main factors and provides a basis for regulations and management of the protection of the Qinghai Lake ecosystems in order to achieve ecological and economic sustainable development for the region. The methods used include: a model for valuation of ecosystem services values, a multiple linear regression model in Matlab7.0, and the coefficient of sensitivity analysis. The results indicate: (1) From 2000 to 2008, the average ecosystem services value is 119.226 × 108 yuan, and the ecosystem services value decreases by 3.98%; (2) From 2000 to 2008, the changes of ecosystem services value in Qinghai Lake area have an obvious negative correlation with air temperature, GDP and the urbanization level from 2000 to 2008, with elastic coefficients of 0.896, 0.249 and 0.2988, respectively; (3) the changes of ecosystem services value in Qinghai Lake area are more sensitive to urbanization level and air temperature, and the coefficient of sensitivity are 4.979 and 1.712, respectively. These results demonstrate that warmer and drier climates are the major reasons for land use change in the Qinghai Lake region, and economic development and human activities in the region also affect land use change and cause the deterioration of the ecological environment and decrease of ecosystem services value. The authors suggest that attention needs to be directed to the livelihoods of the farmers and herdsmen in the Qinghai Lake area, and an ecological compensation system needs to be established, in order to achieve a strategy for sustainable economic growth and ecological protection.

Key words: climate change, ecosystem services, GDP, land use, Qinghai Lake area, sensitivity, urbanization