基于Meta分析的1985—2018年中国森林虫害的时空特征及其影响因素

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2023.05.010

Abstract

Abstract:

Pest disasters are serious threats faced by the forest ecosystem of China. This study selected 316 research papers on forest pest disasters with the selection criteria that primary data of the research were completely obtained from ground survey. We compiled the time of occurrence, location, affected area, and intensity of each forest pest disaster (FPD) event. Then, using Meta-analysis on these records, we depicted the spatial and temporal variability of forest pest disasters in China. A total of 962 FPD records were compiled. These records involved 299 counties in China and covered a temporal range from 1985 to 2018. The results showed that there were 242 county-times of serious FPD events during 1985-2018 with an annual mean of 7.1 county-times. From 1985 to 2005, the annual county-time number of serious FPD events increased at 0.4 county-times per year, but the upward trend was replaced by a decline of -0.6 county-times per year from 2005 to 2018. Spatially, there were more FPD events in the Wuyi Mountains in southeast China and the Qilian Mountains in northwest China compared to other regions. The frequency of serious FPD events exhibited a declining trend from the southeastern coast of China to the northwestern inland region. The Wuyi Mountains area was the most serious FPD region of China. Meteorology factors were considered the primary factor that influenced the FPD. The interannual fluctuation of FPD frequency was negatively correlated with winter temperature of the previous year in the southern part of the semi-arid area and the warm temperate semi-humid area; while it is negatively correlated with spring temperature in the north sub-tropic area and the central sub-tropic area in the south.

Key words: forest pest disaster, spatial and temporal distribution, Meta-analysis, China

ZHANG Xuezhen, HE Qingwen, HUANG Jixia. Spatio-temporal variability of forest pest disasters in China from 1985 to 2018 by Meta-analysis and influencing factors[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2023, 42(5): 960-970.

Figures/Tables 6

Tab.1

Fig.1

Fig.2

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Fig.4

Tab.2

References 45

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编号	类型	记录	研究地区	文献来源
1	无危害	根据普查，石柱县林业有害生物种类有105种，其中病害22种，虫害61种，涉及7目29科	重庆市石柱县	周万良^[24]
2		生态环境保持相对稳定，害虫极少成灾	陕西省镇坪县	凌小惠等^[25]
3		红山区城郊林场林区及南山生态园林区林业有害生物有所发生，但未造成危害	内蒙古自治区红山区	李明明等^[26]
4	中轻度危害	调查发现有18种林业有害生物危害较严重，发生总面积近6000 hm²，按照国家林业局《关于印发<主要林业有害生物成灾标准>的通知》，均为轻度危害	福建省惠安县	陈珍珍等^[27]
5	中轻度危害	发生过的森林虫害主要有马尾松毛虫、松墨天牛、刚竹毒蛾等。累计发生面积9428 hm²，其中轻度发生3012 hm²，中度发生4825 hm²，重度发生1591 hm²	福建省建宁县	宁超斌^[10]
6	重度危害	虫害年(2013和2015年)、干旱和虫害同时爆发年(2009—2010年)	云南省墨江县	曹雪佳等^[9]
7	重度危害	大发生的1980、1991年分别为6666.67、6000 hm²，危害十分严重	湖南省道县	熊昌勇等^[28]

区域	季节	相关系数
区域	季节	原始序列	9点滑动序列	年际波动序列
I中温带湿润半湿润区	上年秋季	0.446^***	0.697^***	0.478^***
	当年冬季	-0.140	-0.803^***	-0.109
	当年春季	-0.033	-0.091	-0.233
	当年夏季	0.362^*	0.775^***	0.262
II北方半干旱区南部	上年秋季	0.277	0.935^***	-0.095
	当年冬季	-0.255	0.065	-0.634^***
	当年春季	0.327^*	0.928^***	-0.177
	当年夏季	0.387^**	0.941^***	-0.030
III暖温带半湿润区	上年秋季	0.305^*	0.719^***	0.193
	当年冬季	-0.022	-0.529^***	-0.092
	当年春季	0.196	0.568^***	-0.508^***
	当年夏季	0.154	0.407^**	0.070
IV北亚热带湿润区	上年秋季	0.402^**	0.843^***	-0.022
	当年冬季	0.087	0.017	0.135
	当年春季	0.440^***	0.838^***	-0.364^*
	当年夏季	0.321^*	0.797^***	-0.015
V中亚热带湿润区东部	上年秋季	0.327^*	0.763^***	0.033
	当年冬季	0.162	0.410^**	0.269
	当年春季	0.283	0.911^***	-0.455^**
	当年夏季	0.268	0.719^***	-0.049
VI 中亚热带湿润区西部	上年秋季	0.475^***	0.819^***	0.149
	当年冬季	0.138	0.831^***	-0.142
	当年春季	0.412^**	0.861^***	-0.354^*
	当年夏季	0.249	0.534^***	0.054

Spatio-temporal variability of forest pest disasters in China from 1985 to 2018 by Meta-analysis and influencing factors

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