生计可持续性视角下精准扶贫的政策效应评估及其分异研究——以武陵山区石柱县为例

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2023.04.005

Abstract

Abstract:

Consolidating and expanding the achievements of poverty alleviation is an important task during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. Improving the livelihood sustainability of farming households is the key to prevent the return to poverty and achieve high-quality development in poverty alleviation areas. From the perspective of livelihood sustainability, a systematic evaluation of the effects of the targeted poverty alleviation (TPA) policy provides an important basis for achieving these goals. In this study, an evaluation framework was constructed from the dimensions of livelihood capital, livelihood environment, and intergenerational development capacity. Taking Shizhu County in the Wuling Mountains as the study area, this research used the difference-in-differences (DID) and propensity score matching (PSM)-DID methods to quantify the effects of the TPA policy and discussed the differentiation of policy effects. The findings are: 1) The TPA policy improved the livelihood sustainability level of farming households by 20.5%, and improved the livelihood capital, livelihood environment, and intergenerational development capacity by 21.3%, 23.9% and 15.8%, respectively. The improvement of livelihood environment was more prominent, while the improvement of intergenerational development capacity was relatively weak. 2) The TPA policy had a greater and significant effect on farming households with multiple livelihood strategies, followed by agriculture-oriented households and off-farm employment-oriented households, while subsidy-dependent households with "blood transfusion" assistance were marginalized. The TPA policy aggravated the differentiation of livelihood sustainability among groups. 3) The effect of the TPA policy showed spatial specificity. Compared with Wangchang Town and Huangshui Town that had better basic economic conditions, TPA had a higher and more significant impact on Longsha Town that has locational advantages and Zhongyi Town that was at a deeper poverty level. 4) Countermeasures and recommendations were put forward to consolidate the achievements of poverty alleviation from the aspects of continuously strengthening education and technology input, intensifying efforts to alleviate poverty in remote areas, and providing policy-based guidance for the governance of poor marginal groups. The research provides a theoretical basis for improving the matching and accuracy of policies to consolidate the achievements of poverty alleviation, which may help deepen the understanding of China's anti-poverty theories and practice.

Key words: targeted poverty alleviation, sustainable livelihoods, policy effect, DID, Wuling Mountains concentrated poverty area

LIU Qian, LEI Yangyang, YU Zhonglei, TANG Honglin, YE Wenli, YANG Xinjun. Policy effect and differentiation of targeted poverty alleviation from the perspective of livelihood sustainability:Taking Shizhu County, Wuling Mountains as an example[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2023, 42(4): 670-686.

Figures/Tables 14

Fig.1

Tab.1

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Tab.2

Evaluation indicator system for livelihood sustainability of households and indicator weights

维度	一级指标	二级指标	指标释义与赋值	权重
生计资本	自然资本	生物生产面积x₁	生物生产面积=耕地面积×2.8+林果面积×1.1+林地面积×1.1 +鱼塘×0.2+园地×0.5 (hm²)	0.073
	物质资本	住房结构x₂	住房结构：土/木房=0，砖瓦/砖木=0.25，砖混(平层)=0.5，楼房(2层)=0.75，楼房(3层及以上)=1	0.115
		固定资产x₃	微型农业机械设备(小型拖拉机、农用排灌动力机、收割机、脱粒机等)与常用家庭耐用消费品(电脑、洗衣机、电视机、摩托车、电瓶车、冰箱、空调、小汽车、货车等)的数量之和	0.107
		牲畜养殖x₄	牲畜数量=牛×1+驴×0.8+羊×0.6+猪×0.4+鸡×0.2(羊单位)	0.063
	人力资本	劳动力数量x₅	成年劳动力(16~65岁)数量(人)	0.092
	人力资本	健康水平x₆	劳动力健康水平之和：无法自理(患重大疾病)=0，部分自理(频发疾病且影响生产生活)=0.25，基本健康(偶发疾病且轻微影响生产生活)=0.5，较健康(偶发疾病但不影响生产生活)=0.75，非常健康(无患病)=1	0.108
	金融资本	人均收入x₇	年总收入与家庭人口比值(以对数化处理)(元/人)	0.125
	金融资本	信贷机会x₈	可获得政策性贷款(例如，小额信贷或贴息贷款等)：是=1，否=0	0.078
	社会资本	社会网络x₉	获得帮助的人数和关系网络支持种类(如现金借款、就业提携、子女上学帮扶、实用技术传授等)：无=0，1种=0.25，2种=0.5，3种=0.75，4种=1	0.087
		公共参与x₁₀	现场参加或微信群参加村内公共事务(例如集体选举或表决、公共工程修建等)：从不参与=0，较少参与(参与度约25%)=0.25，一般情况参与(参与度约50%)=0.5，经常参与(参与度约75%)=0.75，全部参与=1	0.060
		社会信任x₁₁	对村干部或驻村工作队的信任程度：几乎没有=0，较少=0.25，一般=0.5，较多=0.75，非常信任=1	0.092
生计环境	基础设施条件	生产生活设施x₁₂	生产生活设施之和。是否有安全饮用水/新建饮水点：是=1，否(旱季饮用江湖水/人畜饮水困难)=0;生活用电是否稳定：是=1，否(停电天数≥7 d)=0;庭院是否硬化：是=1，否=0;是否有新修灌溉水网/蓄水池/冷库/农产品临时收储点等：是=1，否=0	0.118
		交通设施建设x₁₃	入户道路类型：山路、陡坡路(仅能供畜力运输工具通行)=0，村间小道(能通行摩托车)=0.25，村道支道(能通行小型农用车)=0.5，村主干道=0.75，乡镇道路=1	0.144
		交通设施建设x₁₃	道路可达性计算公式： $B i = d i / d -$ ， $B i$ 为农村道路可达系数， $d i$ 为农户i到达最近国道、省道或县道等高等级公路的路程， $d -$ 为到达高等级公路的平均里程	0.105
		农村信息化设施x₁₄	是否至少有1台上网设备或至少1部手机：是(可流畅使用互联网)=1，否=0	0.204
	公共服务	医疗卫生服务x₁₅	村内是否拥有卫生所/卫生室：是=1，否=0	0.113
	公共服务	农业生产组织x₁₆	参加村内农业生产合作社/互助社/龙头企业/集体经济组织：是=1，否=0	0.156
	社会保障	社会保障x₁₇	已享有社会福利保障(农村居民养老保险、新农合、大病险、低保、农村特困供养、残疾补助、高龄补助)的数量	0.160
代际发展能力	教育状况	受教育水平x₁₈	青壮年劳动力(15~45周岁)的受教育程度：文盲=0，小学=0.25，初中=0.5，高中及大专=0.75，本科及以上=1	0.307
	教育状况	教育政策支持x₁₉	子女是否享受“雨露计划”/三免一补/营养餐/学生特困救助/助学贷款等政策支持：是=1，否=0	0.196
	技能状况	技术水平x₂₀	青壮年劳动力(15~45周岁)的技术水平：无技能(无业)=0，农业生产技能(仅从事农业经营的劳动者)=0.25，初级技工+农业生产(从事打零工且具有农业经营的劳动者)=0.5，中级技工或自主经营(从事长期务工或自主经营)=0.75，高级技能(从事具有一定专业或高技术劳动者或企事业单位人员)=1	0.208
	技能状况	技术运用x₂₁	劳动力对新种养殖技术或新职业技能运用情况：未运用无帮助(未获得收益增加)=0，有运用且有一定帮助(获得收益且增加的收益≤原家庭收入的50%)=0.5，有运用且帮助较大(获得收益且增加的收益>原家庭收入的50%)=1	0.289

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Tab.4

Tab.5

Tab.6

Tab.7

Tab.8

Tab.9

Fig.3

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地理单元	调研乡镇	样本村	有效样本量/户
I 沿江小平原	王场镇	石溪村、双龙村、太和村、蛟鱼村	130
II 方斗山低山区	鱼池镇	白江村^#、金竹村^#、山轿村、水田村^*	126
III 方斗—七曜山所夹槽谷区	龙沙镇	长坪村、中海村^#、石岭村^#、永丰村^#	118
IV 七曜山北部高山区	黄水镇	金花村^#、万胜坝村、清河村、洋洞村	124
V 七曜山南部中山区	中益乡	建峰村^#、坪坝村^*、全兴村^#、盐井村^#	134

变量	变量名称	指标描述及含义	全样本	实验组	对照组	t检验
户主特征	年龄X₁	18~25岁=1，26~40岁=2，41~60岁=3，61岁以上=4	3.712 (2.147)	3.790 (1.557)	3.606 (1.859)	**
	受教育程度X₂	文盲=1，小学=2，初中或中专=3，高中或大专=4，本科及以上=5	2.441 (0.818)	2.283 (0.715)	2.575 (0.873)	**
	健康状况X₃	无法自理=1，部分自理=2，基本健康=3，较健康=4，非常健康=5	4.055 (1.124)	4.070 (1.156)	4.588 (0.738)	***
家庭结构与生计特征	家庭抚养比X₄	非劳动力数量/劳动力数量	0.706 (0.755)	0.727 (0.734)	0.688 (0.773)	***
	生计多样性X₅	由生计多样性计算公式得出，见文献[37]	0.454 (0.306)	0.490 (0.286)	0.422 (0.318)	ns
	非农经营性收入比X₆	非农经营性收入占总收入比重	0.121 (0.561)	0.032 (0.161)	0.199 (0.744)	**
村域特征	区位条件X₇	所在村庄与最近乡镇的距离：0~4 km=1，4~8 km=2，8~12 km=3，12~16 km=4，>16 km=5	4.457 (2.497)	4.697 (3.147)	4.367 (1.198)	**
	经济发展水平X₈	所在村庄人均收入水平(万元/人)	0.912 (1.203)	0.842 (1.420)	1.112 (1.074)	**
	海拔高程X₉	ArcGIS提取所在村域的平均海拔高程：<450 m=1，450~750 m=2，750~1000 m=3，1000~1500 m=4，≥1500 m=5	3.789 (1.440)	4.014 (1.369)	3.647 (1.964)	**

按生计方式划分	户数/户	占比/%	分类标准	特征
L1：务农主导型	126	19.937	务农收入占比≥60%	生计以务农为主，包括从事农林牧副渔业
L2：务工主导型	230	36.392	务工收入占比≥60%	生计以务工为主，包括短期、长期务工，土地多流转或弃耕，农业经营或自主性经营活动较少
L3：兼业型	170	26.899	务农或务工收入占40%~60%	从事2种及以上的生计活动，采取打工+务农、自主经营+务农/务工等组合方式
L4：补贴依赖型	106	16.772	政府补贴≥60%	无务工或务农活动，以政府转移性收入为主

变量	2015年	2020年	变量	2015年	2020年
户主平均年龄/岁	47.990(11.557)	52.965(11.574)	人均收入/万元	0.817(0.775)	1.051(0.635)
家庭规模/人	3.437(1.276)	3.497(1.320)	人均务农收入/万元	0.095(0.115)	0.073(0.116)
户均劳动力数量/人	2.246(1.247)	2.209(1.406)	人均务工收入/万元	0.517(0.740)	0.686(0.571)
患病比^a	0.541(0.726)	0.652(0.804)	人均经营性收入/万元	0.032(0.161)	0.058(0.213)
劳动力受教育程度^b	0.746(0.583)	0.869(0.686)	人均实际耕地面积/亩	2.681(2.560)	1.556(2.461)
家庭抚养比	0.727(0.734)	0.867(0.922)	非农就业人数/人	1.214(1.247)	1.331(0.987)
生计多样性水平^c	0.490(0.286)	0.466(0.272)	种植多样性	0.491(0.271)	0.331(0.279)

变量	模型1：	模型2：	模型3：	模型4：	模型5：	模型6：	模型7：	模型8：
变量	Y₁	Y₂	Y₃	Y₄	Y₅	Y₆	Y₇	Y₈
did	0.231^**	0.224^**	0.260^**	0.175^**	0.195^**	0.201^***	0.226^***	0.162^**
	(3.841)	(3.985)	(3.322)	(3.340)	(2.690)	(1.117)	(2.174)	(2.662)
时间效应	控制	控制	控制	控制	控制	控制	控制	控制
个体效应	控制	控制	控制	控制	控制	控制	控制	控制
常数项	0.191^***	0.402^***	-0.140^**	-0.113^**	-0.121^***	0.173^***	0.472^***	-0.276^***
	(5.180)	(9.500)	(-3.060)	(-2.480)	(-2.650)	(4.490)	(5.420)	(-4.050)
样本量	1264	1264	1264	1264	1264	1264	1264	1264
R²	0.510	0.516	0.411	0.436	0.564	0.630	0.659	0.546

Policy effect and differentiation of targeted poverty alleviation from the perspective of livelihood sustainability:Taking Shizhu County, Wuling Mountains as an example

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变量	核匹配		最近邻匹配		半径匹配(k=2)		局部线性回归匹配
变量	标准化偏差/%	匹配后差异检验P值	标准化偏差/%	匹配后差异检验P值	标准化偏差/%	匹配后差异检验P值	标准化偏差/%	匹配后差异检验P值
X₁	0.3	0.968	1.6	0.823	1.6	0.823	-1.6	0.815
X₂	2.0	0.768	1.9	0.791	1.9	0.791	0.0	1.000
X₃	-6.8	0.380	-4.9	0.499	-4.9	0.499	-2.5	0.742
X₄	2.8	0.700	1.5	0.834	1.5	0.834	6.0	0.410
X₅	2.8	0.700	-11.9	0.108	-4.6	0.537	-10.0	0.172
X₆	0.3	0.970	0.4	0.954	0.4	0.954	8.7	0.220
X₇	-6.5	0.349	-14.3	0.043	-3.0	0.682	-4.4	0.546
X₈	1.5	0.824	3.7	0.593	3.7	0.593	3.0	0.660
X₉	2.8	0.692	6.1	0.401	6.1	0.401	9.3	0.195

匹配方法	生计可持续性	生计资本	生计环境	代际发展能力
核匹配	0.204^***(0.117)	0.210^***(0.037)	0.236^***(0.051)	0.162^**(0.058)
最近邻匹配	0.206^***(0.103)	0.212^***(0.134)	0.235^***(0.125)	0.160^**(0.014)
半径匹配(k=2)	0.207^***(0.127)	0.220^**(0.165)	0.243^**(0.214)	0.155^**(0.012)
局部线性回归匹配	0.203^**(0.130)	0.209^***(0.019)	0.242^***(0.016)	0.156^**(0.001)
平均值	0.205	0.213	0.239	0.158

变量	分类/地区	LSI	生计资本	生计环境	代际发展能力
不同生计方式脱贫户	L1：务农主导型	0.218^***(1.635)	0.216^***(1.851)	0.231^**(0.114)	0.155^**(1.450)
	L2：务工主导型	0.214^**(1.401)	0.203^***(0.030)	0.240^**(0.154)	0.170^***(2.249)
	L3：兼业型	0.223^***(1.510)	0.224^***(0.214)	0.242^**(0.166)	0.167^***(2.145)
	L4：补贴依赖型	0.164^*(1.410)	0.156^***(0.057)	0.233^**(0.130)	0.101(0.254)
不同地形区脱贫户	王场镇	0.174^**(2.170)	0.187^***(0.265)	0.173^**(0.893)	0.151^**(2.170)
	鱼池镇	0.206^**(1.710)	0.213^***(0.687)	0.247^***(0.852)	0.157^**(0.421)
	龙沙镇	0.234^***(0.411)	0.228^***(0.136)	0.241^***(0.028)	0.173^***(2.074)
	黄水镇	0.170^** (0.125)	0.172^**(0.515)	0.197^***(0.423)	0.146^**(0.592)
	中益乡	0.225^**(1.023)	0.225^***(0.397)	0.271^***(1.284)	0.165^**(0.897)

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