四川省新型城镇化与城乡收入差距时空演化及关联性分析

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2023.04.004

Abstract

Abstract:

As an important measure to improve the institutions and mechanisms for coordinated regional development, the new urbanization is of great significance for reversing the unbalanced development between urban and rural areas and between different regions, and promoting high-quality economic development. Taking Sichuan Province as the research object and adopting the spatial autocorrelation analysis method, the spatial econometric model, and the threshold panel model, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal change of the new urbanization and urban-rural income gap, discussed the relationship between them, and verified other influencing factors of urban-rural income gap. The conclusions are as follows: 1) In 2009-2019, the level of new urbanization was rising year by year, and annual urban-rural income gap were continuously narrowing. Urban-rural income gap in each year showed significant spatial autocorrelation, with the low value areas concentrated in the Chengdu-Chongqing economic corridor, and the high value areas concentrated in western Sichuan and the Qinba Mountains area in the northeast. 2) The new urbanization had a nonlinear impact on urban-rural income gap, showing an inverted U-shaped relationship, the main reason of which was that the new urbanization and agricultural modernization were not coordinated and synchronized. Only when the level of agricultural modernization crossed the threshold, would the new urbanization curb the widening of urban-rural income gap. 3) Degree of regional economic imbalance, scientific and technological innovation, and human capital level were also significant factors that affect urban-rural income gap. The research results may provide theoretical support to steadily promote new urbanization and to narrow the urban-rural income gap effectively.

Key words: new urbanization, urban-rural income gap, agricultural modernization, Sichuan Province

LI Jing, LIAO Heping, LIU Yuanli, ZHANG Jie. Spatiotemporal changes and correlation of the new urbanization and urban-rural income gap in Sichuan Province[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2023, 42(4): 657-669.

Figures/Tables 8

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References 39

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目标层	准则层	指标层	指标解释(单位)	权重
新型城镇化水平	宏观经济发展	经济总体质效	人均GDP(元)	0.084
		产业结构非农化	第二、第三产业增加值/GDP(%)	0.048
		就业结构非农化	第二、第三产业从业者占比(%)	0.048
		人口城镇化水平	城镇常住人口数/常住人口总量(%)	0.060
	城镇建设管理	城市绿化水平	人均公园绿地面积(m²)	0.053
		便民设施建设	公厕数量/建成区面积(座/km²)	0.053
		海绵城市建设	排水管总长度/建成区面积(km/km²)	0.059
		智慧城市建设	互联网普及率(%)	0.055
	绿色发展质量	节能环保投入	节能环保投入/GDP(%)	0.048
		经济发展能耗^*	单位GDP能耗(tce/万元)	0.053
		工业固废处理	一般工业固体废物综合利用率(%)	0.053
		生活垃圾处理	生活垃圾无害化处理率(%)	0.066
	人民生活水平	基本社会保障	基本医疗保险人数/常住人口(%)	0.053
		居民住房保障	住房保障财政投入/常住人口/(万元/人)	0.050
		居民消费水平	社会消费品零售额/常住人口/(万元/人)	0.058
	基本公共服务	基本教育水平	中小学教师总量/中小学在校生数量(%)	0.054
		基本医疗水平	各级卫生机构床位数/常住人口总量(张/万人)	0.054
		文化艺术传承	文化馆、博物馆、图书馆机构数量/常住人口总量(个/万人)	0.051

年份	新型城镇化(NUI)		城乡收入差距(GUR)		年份	新型城镇化(NUI)		城乡收入差距(GUR)
年份	Moran's I	Z值	Moran's I	Z值	年份	Moran's I	Z值	Moran's I	Z值
2009	0.019	0.564	0.224^***	2.769	2015	0.050	0.795	0.344^***	2.768
2010	0.018	0.564	0.228^**	2.687	2016	0.039	0.989	0.321^***	2.763
2011	0.004	0.447	0.231^**	2.584	2017	0.031	0.623	0.323^***	2.763
2012	-0.015	0.276	0.226^**	2.405	2018	0.029	0.607	0.323^***	2.671
2013	0.053	0.842	0.226^**	2.317	2019	0.080	1.022	0.320^***	2.737
2014	0.081	0.997	0.323^***	2.820

检验	统计量	P值
LM lag	20.498	<0.001
R-LM lag	0.764	0.382
LM err	30.865	<0.001
R-LM err	11.132	<0.001
Moran's I(残差)	5.958	<0.001
Hausman	156.490	<0.001

变量	SDM		SLM		SEM
变量	系数	Z值	系数	Z值	系数	Z值
NUI	-1.661^***	-3.96	-1.997^***	-6.39	-2.681^***	-7.09
MAG	-0.405^***	-3.18	-0.284^***	-3.13	-0.441^***	-3.38
MAG×NUI	3.702^***	6.57	3.669^***	6.47	3.719^***	6.33
REU	1.019^***	3.15	0.872^***	2.73	0.554^*	1.88
GOV	-2.296	-1.63	-2.169	-1.45	-0.358	-0.25
HUM	-1.188^**	-2.38	-1.087^**	-2.29	-1.049^**	-1.98
STI	0.405^***	5.96	0.399^***	5.76	0.344^***	4.93
PRE	-0.002	-0.01	-0.121	-1.30	-0.284^**	-2.43
OTO	-0.006	-0.28	-0.009	-0.41	0.014	0.60
W×NUI	1.512^**	2.06
W×MAG	0.279	1.53
W×MAG×NUI	-0.632	-0.48
W×REU	1.064	1.64
W×GOV	-9.571	-1.30
W×HUM	-0.727	-0.72
W×STI	-0.463^***	-3.41
W×PRE	0.014	0.08
W×OTO	-0.035	-0.79
ρ(λ)	0.667^***	12.00	0.691^***	12.33	0.674^***	12.77
σ²	0.019^***	10.23	0.023^***	10.19	0.024^***	10.17
R²	0.705		0.549		0.669
Log_L	108.342		89.469		86.494
LR_spatial_lag	37.75^***
Wald_spatial_lag	45.26^***
LR_spatial_error	49.92^***
Wald_spatial_error	32.07^***

门限检验	门槛数	F值	P值	10%临界值	5%临界值	1%临界值	BS次数
三次	单一门槛	97.440^***	<0.001	15.680	18.218	29.166	300
	双重门槛	4.220	0.867	15.703	17.990	25.376	300
	三重门槛	5.020	0.880	23.264	28.782	41.761	300
二次	单一门槛	97.440^***	<0.001	15.180	18.493	23.588	300
二次	双重门槛	4.220	0.790	15.308	17.367	28.139	300
一次	单一门槛	97.440^***	<0.001	15.714	19.704	28.339	300

Spatiotemporal changes and correlation of the new urbanization and urban-rural income gap in Sichuan Province

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解释变量	门槛变量	估计值	t值
NUI	MAG<0.135	8.865^***	7.15
NUI	MAG≥0.135	-1.855^***	-5.03