泰安市设施农用地的时空格局演变与影响因素

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2023.01.010

Abstract

Abstract:

Facility agricultural land (FAL) is an important spatial carrier of non-grain agricultural production. Under the current land use transition, the impact of regional arable and construction land scales on the scale of FAL and their spatial effects are unclear. Based on the data of the second (2008) and third (2018) national land surveys, this study used spatial autocorrelation analysis and land use transfer matrix to systematically analyze the spatial evolution characteristics of the FAL in Tai'an City and the key influencing factors, in an attempt to provide some theoretical support for the management of "non-grain" and "non-agricultural" transition of arable land and the spatial layout adjustment of FAL. The results show that: 1) During the decade between 2008 and 2018, the total area of FAL in Tai'an City was relatively stable, but the net change was dramatic, and arable land and construction land were the main sources and destinations for transferring FAL, respectively. 2) The FAL showed a spatial pattern of moving from the center of the counties/districts to the periphery, with an increasing trend of agglomeration in distant urban areas. 3) During the second national land survey period, the scale of arable land promoted the expansion of FAL, while during the third national land survey period, the scale of arable land inhibited the growth of FAL and the effect was more significant in townships far away from the county seats. 4) During both the second and the third national land surveys, construction land steadily promoted the expansion of facility agricultural land, and this effect was widespread in space.

Key words: facility agricultural land, urban-rural location, land use transition, "non-grain" and "non-agricultural" transition, Tai'an City

CHEN Yunling, WANG Maojun. Spatial and temporal patterns of facility agricultural land in Tai’an City and influencing factors[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2023, 42(1): 116-130.

Figures/Tables 13

Fig.1

Fig.2

Tab.1

Fig.3

Fig.4

Fig.5

Tab.2

Fig.6

Fig.7

Tab.3

Tab.4

Results of regression analyses

变量名称	三调时期						二调时期
	基准回归模型		稳健性检验				二调时期
	模型1	模型2	模型3	模型4	模型5 (子样本)	模型6 (子样本)	模型7	模型8
耕地面积(AL_area)	-0.172^* (-1.832)	-0.199^** (-2.162)	-0.207^** (-2.639)	-0.227^*** (-2.939)	-0.221^*** (-2.682)	-0.231^*** (-2.81)	0.318^*** (2.809)	0.356^*** (3.131)
非农建设用地面积(NACL_area)	0.240^** (2.385)	0.286^** (2.300)	0.226^** (2.537)	0.289^** (2.518)	0.231^** (2.136)	0.256^** (2.090)	0.381^*** (3.622)	0.351^*** (2.901)
坡度(Slope)	-0.326^*** (-3.252)	-0.308^*** (-3.098)	-0.224^** (-2.479)	-0.236^** (-2.645)	-0.250^** (-2.491)	-0.259^** (-2.597)	-0.250^** (-2.518)	-0.258^*** (-2.747)
距县城中心距离(D_county)	0.410^*** (4.198)	0.426^*** (4.452)	0.323^*** (3.836)	0.360^*** (4.154)	0.350^*** (3.891)	0.390^*** (3.981)	-0.013 (-0.124)	-0.089 (-0.840)
距市中心距离(D_city)	0.193^* (1.847)	0.171^* (1.544)	0.185^** (2.008)	0.186^* (1.926)	0.186^* (1.912)	0.177^* (1.735)	-0.125 (-0.965)	-0.099 (-0.724)
省域市场规模(MPit)	0.153 (1.604)	0.162^* (1.737)	0.134^* (1.703)	0.153^* (1.969)	0.217^** (2.355)	0.217^** (2.369)	0.154 (1.079)	0.027 (0.196)
县域市场规模(NC_pop)	0.144 (1.506)	0.179^* (1.899)	0.247^*** (2.793)	0.264^*** (3.044)	0.186^* (1.794)	0.213^** (2.054)	0.183^* (1.424)	0.357^*** (2.815)
乡镇人口规模(Pop)	0.221^** (1.981)	0.264^** (2.382)	0.286^* (1.753)	0.328^** (2.023)	0.469^** (2.286)	0.461^** (2.227)	-0.019 (-0.208)	-0.037 (-0.437)
乡镇财政收入(LFR)	-0.102 (-0.892)	-0.115 (-1.031)	0.074 (0.764)	0.038 (0.388)	0.136 (1.405)	0.098 (0.991)	-0.177 (-1.693)	-0.110 (-1.067)
距公路最近距离(ND_road)	0.086 (0.873)	0.086 (0.902)	0.086 (1.055)	0.101 (1.268)	0.147 (1.606)	0.148 (1.639)	0.004 (0.035)	0.015 (0.158)
非农就业人口占比(NFP)			-0.276 (-1.600)	-0.259 (-1.518)	-0.407^* (-1.933)	-0.350 (-1.608)
有效灌溉面积(IR_area)			0.361^*** (3.057)	0.335^*** (2.891)	0.288^** (2.297)	0.268^** (2.152)
二调设施农用地(SecFAL_area)			-0.006 (-0.070)	-0.007 (-0.091)	-0.059 (-0.678)	-0.051 (-0.588)
农村合作社(RC)			0.201^** (2.211)	0.172^* (1.863)	0.164^* (1.693)	0.160 (1.645)
农业技术服务机构(ATS)			0.159^** (2.136)	0.168^** (2.297)	0.165^** (1.999)	0.186^** (2.262)
土地流转面积 (LT_area)			-0.198^** (-2.412)	-0.253^*** (-2.851)	-0.237^** (-2.616)	-0.269^*** (-2.788)
是否高效农业项目驻地乡镇(EAP)			0.146^* (1.912)	0.132^* (1.713)	0.057 (0.643)	0.065 (0.708)
D_county $×$ AL_area		-0.208^** (-2.199)		-0.156^** (-2.014)		-0.141^* (-1.729)		-0.341^*** (-3.204)
D_county $×$ NACL_area		0.106 (0.940)		0.099 (0.955)		0.068 (0.633)		-0.102 (-0.962)
R²	0.399	0.447	0.663	0.688	0.634	0.635	0.431	0.517
调整后R²	0.321	0.358	0.581	0.601	0.535	0.545	0.354	0.437
F	5.114	5.049	8.099	7.892	6.405	6.042	5.600	6.424
Sig	< 0.001	< 0.001	< 0.001	< 0.001	< 0.001	< 0.001	< 0.001	< 0.001
N	88	88	88	88	80	80	88	88

Tab.4

Fig.8

Fig.9

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项目	市区		新泰市	宁阳县	肥城市	东平县	合计
项目	泰山区	岱岳区	新泰市	宁阳县	肥城市	东平县	合计
二调	345.41	859.41	1334.68	866.21	818.70	662.35	4886.76
三调	218.61	870.24	1251.15	858.87	951.79	763.54	4914.20
总变化	-126.80	10.83	-83.53	-7.34	133.09	101.19	27.44
净增加	101.47	442.73	704.42	442.26	538.43	584.82	2814.12
净减少	150.95	387.68	788.95	441.42	402.95	437.86	2609.81

区域	过渡圈层/km	行政中心至质心距离/km	Ⅱ区平均坡度/(°)	县城人口规模/万人
市区	16~18	9.80	6.79	67.28
肥城市	4~6	8.62	2.97	30.77
东平县	10~12	11.02	4.05	28.04
宁阳县	28~30	13.23	2.77	10.40
新泰市	26~28	14.70	5.28	35.82

变量			符号	单位	预期符号	二调时期				三调时期
变量			符号	单位	预期符号	最小值	最大值	平均值	标准偏差	最小值	最大值	平均值	标准偏差
因变量		设施农用地面积	FAL_area	hm²		0	144.10	55.53	31.94	0	145.60	55.84	32.75
自变量		耕地面积	AL_area	hm²	-	3.79	11693.08	4275.77	2520.42	1.07	14498.59	4325.13	2891.82
自变量		非农建设用地面积	NACL_area	hm²	+	268.03	4490.23	1398.82	730.24	310.46	8087.00	1848.19	1191.40
控制变量	地形条件	坡度	Slope	°	-	1.84	16.23	4.47	2.82	1.84	16.23	4.47	2.82
	区位条件	距县城中心距离	D_county	km	+	0.60	40.91	17.27	9.63	0.60	40.91	17.27	9.63
	区位条件	距市中心距离	D_city	km	+	2.38	92.74	43.68	23.20	2.38	92.74	43.68	23.20
	市场规模	省域市场规模	MPit		+	193.94	254.54	224.41	19.85	491.47	671.05	576.18	61.23
	市场规模	县城人口规模	NC_pop	万人	+	9.82	47.67	25.03	10.26	10.4	53.59	27.11	12.81
	社会经济发展	乡镇人口规模	Pop	万人	+	0.11	7.80	0.72	0.84	1.25	21.53	6.51	3.29
		乡镇财政收入	LFR	万元	+	148.00	47814.00	3474.76	5615.91	468.00	94336.00	11122.92	17425.62
		距公路最近距离	ND_road	m	-	4.12	1377.31	362.03	325.41	4.12	1377.31	362.03	325.41
		非农就业人口占比	NFP	%	+/-					0.03	0.84	0.38	0.15
		有效灌溉面积	IR_area	hm²	+					0	31.60	12.79	7.51
	政策调控	农村合作社	RC	个	+					0	146.00	54.11	31.34
		农业技术服务机构	ATS	个	+					0	28.00	5.35	5.59
		土地流转面积	LT_area	个	+					0	11753.20	820.64	1312.64
		是否高效农业项目驻地乡镇	EAP	是/否	+					0	1.00	0.60	0.49

Spatial and temporal patterns of facility agricultural land in Tai’an City and influencing factors

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