基于体制转换的乡村转型时空格局及演变机理——以甘肃省榆中县为例

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2022.12.010

Abstract

Abstract:

Rural transformation is the key to rural revitalization, and it is also an important basis for the transformation of agriculture, rural areas, and farmers. This study constructed a rural transformation indicator system based on population, land use, and industrial transformations, which is applied to a case study of Yuzhong County in Gansu Province in the hilly region of the Loess Plateau. Based on multi-source data such as statistical data from 2002 to 2018, rural household survey data, and remote sensing data, entropy method, analytic hierarchy process, rural transformation degree model, and spatial analysis method were used to quantify and analyze the rural transformation and its spatial-temporal evolution patterns, and to describe the pathways of rural household livelihood transformation from the perspectives of county and rural households. Then, we applied the regime shift theory to describe the mechanism of rural transformation, using the stepwise regression analysis method to identify the key factors driving rural transformation. The results show that: 1) The rural transformation degree, industrial transformation degree, and population transformation degree in Yuzhong County increased significantly from 2002 to 2018, while the land use transformation degree decreased steadily. The difference between rural transformation degree and industrial transformation degree was obvious and changed greatly, especially in the central plain area. 2) Rural transformation, population transformation, and industrial transformation basically showed a spatial pattern of relatively high and high-speed transformation in the central area, low-speed transformation in the north, and transition from low-speed to relatively high-speed transformation in the south, accompanied by step-by-step and cross-level changes, and the spatial distribution of land use transformation was relatively scattered. The hot spots of rural transformation, population transformation, industrial transformation, and land use transformation were concentrated in the central plain area of the county, while cold spots were mainly concentrated in the northern mountainous area. 3) The livelihood transformation pathways of rural households were diverse, which showed comprehensive transformation in the northern mountainous area, and part-time farming in the central plain and southern mountainous areas. 4) Rural transformation regime shift has taken place in the central plain area, while in the southern mountainous area rural development is progressing but a regime shift has not occurred, and rual transformation is not significant in the northern mountainous area. 5) Fixed asset investment is the key factor of rural transformation in Yuzhong County. Finally, the results aim to provide a theoretical basis for rural revitalization and rural high-quality development in the hilly region of the Loess Plateau from the new perspective of rural transformation study.

Key words: rural transformation, livelihood transformation, rural transformation degree, rural high-quality development, regime shift, Yuzhong County of Gansu Province

SHI Yuzhong, ZHAO Linlin, ZHAO Xueyan, LAN Haixia. Spatiotemporal evolution and mechanism of rural transformation: A case study of Yuzhong County in Gansu Province[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2022, 41(12): 2311-2326.

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References 38

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目标层	准则层	指标层	指标权重	指标属性
乡村转型度	人口转型 0.334	城镇化率	0.132	+
	人口转型 0.334	农村非农劳动力占比	0.202	+
	土地转型 0.332	耕地面积占比	0.105	+
		农村居民点面积占比	0.124	-
		复种指数	0.103	-
	产业转型 0.334	非农产业产值占比	0.084	+
		有效灌溉面积占比	0.069	+
		农业劳动生产率	0.092	+
		非粮作物面积占比	0.088	+

因变量	自变量	B	β	t	Sig.	修正R²	修正Sig.
乡村转型	常数项	0.686	—	7.995	<0.001	0.656	<0.001
乡村转型	固定资产投资	0.438	0.823	5.614	<0.001	0.656	<0.001
人口转型	常数项	0. 208	—	6.547	<0.001	0.615	<0.001
人口转型	人均GDP	0.440	0.500	5.517	<0.001	0.615	<0.001
产业转型	常数项	-0.157	—	-3.416	0.004
	人均耕地面积	0.381	0.509	6.260	<0.001	0.832	<0.001
	固定资产投资	0.647	0.756	9.307	<0.001	0.904	<0.001
土地转型	常数项	0.176	—	8.814	<0.001
	农村劳动力规模	-0.366	-0.593	-4.218	0.001	0.509	0.001
	年降水量	-0.366	-0.477	-3.394	0.004	0.711	<0.001

Spatiotemporal evolution and mechanism of rural transformation: A case study of Yuzhong County in Gansu Province

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