PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY ›› 2022, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (11): 2073-2085.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2022.11.007

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The impact of urban housing burden on settlement intention of floating population in Shanghai

YE Ling1,2(), WANG Jiekai1,2, SONG Weixuan1,3,*()   

  1. 1. Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, CAS, Nanjing 210008, China
    2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    3. Key Laboratory of Watershed Geographic Sciences, CAS, Nanjing 210008, China
  • Received:2021-12-17 Revised:2022-09-06 Online:2022-11-28 Published:2023-01-28
  • Contact: SONG Weixuan;
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China(42171234)


Settlement intention affects the settlement decision of the floating population in cities, and the increasing housing burden has gradually become a key factor restricting the settlement decision of floating population. In view of the relative deficiency of existing research on how housing burden affects the settlement intention of floating population and differences between groups, this study took Shanghai Municipality as an example and used the data in 2012 and 2017 collected from the migrant population dynamic monitoring survey (CMDS) in Shanghai and a binary Logistic regression model to analyze the influencing factors and changes of the floating population's settlement intention, and examined the influence of housing burden on settlement intention and decision of the floating population. The results show that: 1) The increase of housing price to income ratio has a significant negative effect on the floating population's settlement intention, and the groups with lower education level and lower employment status suffer a more significant effect. 2) The rapid growth of housing price increases the housing burden of the floating population, increases their settlement difficulty, and forces them to change their settlement intention and decision. 3) Housing burden will lead to the "driving out" effect on the floating population with lower skills, while the increasing pressure will lead to more people moving out or reduce the quality of life. It is recommended that governments should provide more inclusive, affordable, and diversified housing for the floating population to share the development achievements, so as to promote the ultimate realization of the development goals of "houses are for living in, not for speculation" and common prosperity.

Key words: floating population, housing burden, settlement intention, housing prices, Shanghai Municipality