Abstract:

Along with urban industrial upgrading and rural development, the return of floating population has become an important part of China's population movement. The returnees are becoming an important driver for rural revitalization and new-type urbanization. Distance is an important factor influencing population migration, but the impacts of distance on migrants' return-migration has not been understood well. Based on the data of China Migrant Population Dynamic Survey in 2016, a multi-proximity analysis framework and binary Logistic regression model were used to identify the role of distance in population return. The results show that: 1) Married people with older age and low-level of education, who have no advantage in the labor market, are the main part of returnees. They often have stronger return intention, as their families have a large emotional demand and dependence. 2) All the dimensions of proximity investigated in this study have significant impacts on the return intention of floating population. Geographical, institutional, and social proximities have a significant negative impact on return intention. People who migrated across provinces or dialects over a long-distance have a strong tendency to return. 3) The impact of multi-proximities on return intention showed heterogeneity in different groups. The return intention of highly educated migrants is restrained by the social security situation of their inflow places, at the same time, it is affected by dialect and geographical distance. The new generation floating population is more likely to choose to return under the influence of informal institutional proximity. The return intention of long-term migrants will be reduced when they become familiar with local language and actively participate in the social security system of the inflow places.

Key words: floating population, backflow of floating population, return intention, multi-proximities, binary Logistic regression model