PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY ›› 2022, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (7): 1338-1348.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2022.07.016

• Reviews • Previous Articles    

Progress in parameter sensitivity analysis-optimization-regionalization methods for hydrological models

GOU Jiaojiao1(), MIAO Chiyuan1,*(), DUAN Qingyun1,2   

  1. 1. Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    2. College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
  • Received:2021-10-11 Revised:2021-11-26 Online:2022-07-28 Published:2022-09-28
  • Contact: MIAO Chiyuan;
  • Supported by:
    China Postdoctoral Innovative Talent Support Program(BX2021045);National Natural Science Foundation of China(42041006);China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2021M700478)


Hydrological models are an important scientific tool for understanding the basic theory of hydrology disciplines, analyzing hydrological processes, and studying hydrological cycle mechanisms. The uncertainty analysis of simulation results is a prerequisite for improving the reliability of a model and for conducting an effective hydrological regime forecast. Parameter uncertainty is one of the important factors that affect the uncertainty of simulation results from hydrological models, and the analysis of model parameter uncertainty and its impact factors has important practical significance for hydrological forecasting. The current parameter uncertainty analysis methods can be roughly divided into three categories: parameter sensitivity analysis, parameter optimization, and parameter regionalization method that consider the parameter estimation in ungauged catchments. This?article reviewed the current development of technique and operation status of parameter sensitivity analysis for hydrological models, as well as the advantages and disadvantages of different analysis methods. We also identified the potential development direction of future research on the method of uncertainty analysis of hydrological models, that is, to strengthen the study of the systematic method of uncertainty analysis for hydrological models with the help of multidisciplinary theories and technical methods.

Key words: hydrological model, parameter uncertainty, sensitivity analysis, parameter optimization, parameter regionalization