基于BCC-CSM1-1模拟的过去千年黄河中上游径流百年尺度变化的归因分析

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2022.07.007

Abstract

Abstract:

As the hydrological cycle changes intensify with climate warming, the relationship between runoff and climate change has become a hot topic of research. This study simulated runoff changes between the three distinct climate stages during the last millennium—that is, Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), Little Ice Age (LIA), and Modern Warm Period (MWP)—in the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River using the BCC-CSM1-1 simulation dataset and carried out an attribution analysis with the Budyko Hypothesis and Fu's Formula. The results showed that: 1) At the upper reaches of the Yellow River, there was higher runoff in the MWP and lower runoff in the LIA, and the phase of runoff change was the same as temperature anomaly. However, at the middle reaches of the Yellow River, there was higher runoff in the LIA when it was the coldest while lower runoff in the MCA and MWP when it was warmer. 2) The sensitivity of runoff to various factors showed a geographical difference and was affected by the shift of warm-cold conditions between different climate stages. The elasticity coefficients (absolute value) of runoff to precipitation and potential evaporation in the middle reaches were greater than in the upper reaches, and they were slightly larger during the cold to warm transitional period than in the warm to cold transitional period. Meanwhile, the elasticity coefficient (absolute value) of runoff to land surface changes in the upper and middle reaches during the continuous warming period was significantly greater than in the warm-to-cold and cold-to-warm transitional periods. 3) The runoff discrepancy during the three distinct climate stages was mainly dominated by precipitation, with little influence from land surface change. But there were regional differences in the role of potential evaporation. The effect of potential evaporation in the upper reaches partially offsets the contribution of precipitation to the runoff changes while the potential evaporation in the middle reaches strengthens the runoff changes caused by precipitation.

Key words: BCC-CSM1-1, the past millennium, runoff, centennial scale, Yellow River

WANG Minxia, ZHANG Xuezhen, JING Wenlong. Attribution analysis of centennial scale changes of runoff in the Yellow River Basin over the past millennium based on BCC-CSM1-1 simulation[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2022, 41(7): 1226-1238.

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模式名称	分辨率(大气模块) (经度×纬度×层数)	分辨率(海洋模块) (经度×纬度×层数)	研发机构
BCC-CSM1-1	128×64×L40	360×232×L40	中国气象局北京气候中心
IPSL-CM5A-LR	96×95×L40	182×149×L31	法国皮埃尔—西蒙·拉普拉斯研究所
GISS-E2-R	144×90×L40	288×180×L32	美国宇航局戈达德太空研究所
CCSM4	288×192×L26	320×384×L60	美国国家大气研究中心
HadCM3	76×73×L19	288×144×L20	英国气象局哈德利气候预测和研究中心
MPI-ESM-P	196×98×L47	256×220×L40	德国马普气象研究所
MRI-CGCM3	320×160×L48	364×368×L51	日本气象研究所
CSIRO-Mk3L-1-2	64×56×L18	128×112×L21	澳大利亚联邦科学与工业研究组织

时期	径流变化总量	各因子贡献量
时期	∆R	∆R_P	∆R_E₀	∆R_Surface	误差
MCA-LIA	-2.98	-3.02	1.48	-0.34	-1.10
LIA-MWP	8.22	10.74	-2.77	-1.10	1.35
MCA-MWP	5.24	7.72	-1.29	-1.44	0.25

时期	径流变化总量	各因子贡献量
时期	∆R	∆R_P	∆R_E₀	∆R_Surface	误差
MCA-LIA	30.30	27.64	7.52	-1.82	-3.04
LIA-MWP	-6.57	-4.75	-4.29	0.09	2.38
MCA-MWP	23.73	22.89	3.23	-1.73	-0.66

Attribution analysis of centennial scale changes of runoff in the Yellow River Basin over the past millennium based on BCC-CSM1-1 simulation

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