青海北川河流域径流变化的机理研究——基于模型和统计两种方法

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2022.02.010

Abstract

Abstract:

Climate change and land use/cover change (LUCC) are two major drivers that impact streamflow. Deconvolving the impacts of climate change and LUCC on streamflow will benefit local water resources management. In this study, two methods—the Budyko water balance method and the Distributed-Hydrology-Soil-Vegetation Model (DHSVM) coupled with a new reservoir regulation scheme—were used to deconvolve the impacts of climate change and LUCC on the streamflow in the Beichuan River Basin, Qinghai Province, to reduce uncertainty in the results inherited from the individual methods through cross examination. The study found that: 1) Streamflow at the basin outlet decreased at 0.037 m³/s per year in 1967-2019, and the abrupt change occurred in 1969. 2) Both methods agree that the relative impacts of the decadal climate change during the past five decades were in the order of 1990s > 2000s > 1970s > 1980s = 2010s, and LUCC was the dominant driver for streamflow reduction at the outlet for 1970-2019, with 94.58% and 65.68% contributions for the Budyko method and the DHSVM, respectively. 3) The Budyko method specializes in assessing the change of the entire river basin, while the distributed hydrologic modeling can efficiently describe the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the impacts across the basin. The modeling showed that streamflow changes in the upstream and midstream was dominated by climate change, but downstream flow change was controlled by LUCC. Reservoir regulation exerted important impact on monthly streamflow. The possible reasons of the discrepancies in climate change and LUCC impacts estimated by the two methods were also discussed.

Key words: streamflow, climate change, land use/cover change, Budyko, DHSVM, reservoir regulation, Beichuan River Basin

LIU Zhe, CUO Lan. Investigating the mechanisms of streamflow change in the Beichuan River Basin, Qinghai Province: Based on modeling and statistic analyses[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2022, 41(2): 304-315.

Figures/Tables 9

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References 53

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类型	站点	纬度/(°)	经度/(°)	海拔/m	数据类型	时段	数据来源	备注
气象站	门源(MY)	37.38	101.62	2938	最高气温、最低气温、降水、风速、相对湿度	1960—2019年	青海省气象局	相对湿度(2000—2019年)
	大通(DT)	36.95	101.68	2459	最高气温、最低气温、降水、风速、相对湿度	1960—2019年	青海省气象局
水文站	牛场(NC)	37.25	101.36	3004	降水、流量	2002—2019年	青海省水文水资源勘测局	降水(1976—2019年)
	黑林(HL)	37.08	101.4	2756	降水、流量	1981—2019年	青海省水文水资源勘测局
	峡门(XM)	37.08	101.57	2618	降水、流量	1966—2000年	青海省水文水资源勘测局
	桥头(QT)	36.93	101.69	2442	降水、流量	1960—2019年	青海省水文水资源勘测局

站点		牛场 (率定期)	峡门 (验证期)	黑林 (验证期)
时段		2002—2019年	1966—1975年	1980—1988年
实测流量/(m³/s)		8.05	11.60	2.46
模拟流量/(m³/s)		7.76	12.59	2.58
E_ns	日尺度	0.65	0.56	0.53
	月尺度	0.86	0.79	0.79
RSR	日尺度	0.59	0.67	0.69
	月尺度	0.38	0.45	0.46
E_r/%		-3.61	8.55	4.99

月份	总径流量变化/mm	气候变化影响/%	下垫面变化影响
月份	总径流量变化/mm	气候变化影响/%	土地覆盖变化影响/%	水库调节影响/%	两者影响之和/%
1	3.39	2.29	-10.71	108.42	97.71
2	3.19	2.60	-9.38	106.79	97.40
3	2.91	15.00	-14.04	99.04	85.00
4	1.94	54.67	-43.18	88.51	45.33
5	-7.78	66.33	27.53	6.14	33.67
6	-5.40	-15.03	58.04	56.99	115.03
7	-7.80	-3.32	39.06	64.25	103.32
8	-16.08	50.90	18.25	30.85	49.10
9	-5.28	-64.24	65.29	98.96	164.24
10	-4.96	49.20	41.30	9.50	50.80
11	1.25	-56.56	-68.24	224.80	156.56
12	3.07	-3.76	-16.46	120.22	103.76

Investigating the mechanisms of streamflow change in the Beichuan River Basin, Qinghai Province: Based on modeling and statistic analyses

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