城市韧性对旅游经济的空间溢出效应研究——以长三角城市群为例

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2022.02.003

Abstract

Abstract:

Cities provide support for tourism and their resilience level has an important impact on regional tourism development. Based on the panel data of various regions of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration from 2004 to 2018 and the quantitative assessment of urban resilience, the spatial spillover effect of urban resilience on tourism economy was revealed by using the spatial panel Durbin model. The results show that the spatial difference of urban resilience level is significant, but the overall resilience level is on the rise. There is a strong spatial correlation between urban resilience and tourism economy, and urban resilience has a significant spatial spillover effect on tourism economy (ρ=0.444, P<0.01). Among the resilience dimensions, urban economic resilience and urban ecological resilience have positive spillover effects on tourism economy, while urban social resilience and urban engineering resilience have negative spillover effects on tourism economy. In the future, the development of urban tourism needs to pay attention to the level of urban resilience and its spatial spillover effects, and avoid the siphon effect. It is also necessary to strengthen regional exchanges and cooperation in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration to promote the high quality development of tourism economy.

Key words: urban resilience, tourism economy, spillover effect, spatial panel Durbin model, Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration

FANG Yelin, SU Xueqing, HUANG Zhenfang, CHENG Xuelan. Spatial spillover effect of urban resilience on tourism economy: A case study of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2022, 41(2): 214-223.

Figures/Tables 7

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References 28

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目标层	一级指标	二级指标	指标单位	权重
城市韧性	经济韧性(JJ)	人均GDP^[19]	元	0.032
		人均财政支出^[20]	元	0.155
		第三产业占GDP比重^[19]	%	0.051
		就业率^[18]	%	0.015
	社会韧性(SH)	每万人在校大学生数^[19]	人	0.056
		每万人医疗卫生机构人数^[19]	人	0.118
		每万人互联网宽带用户数^[22]	户	0.076
		每万人拥有公共汽车量^[22]	标台	0.165
	生态韧性(ST)	人均公园绿地面积^[19]	m²	0.145
		建成区绿化覆盖率^[19]	%	0.037
		污水处理率^[19]	%	0.010
		生活垃圾无害化处理率^[19]	%	0.023
	工程韧性(GC)	燃气普及率^[19]	%	0.015
		人均日生活用水量^[19]	L	0.018
		人均城市道路面积^[19]	m²	0.030
		建成区排水管道密度^[21]	km/km²	0.054

年份	旅游经济Moran's I值	t值	年份	城市韧性Moran's I值	t值
2004	0.185^*	1.854	2004	0.254^**	2.934
2006	0.067	1.595	2006	0.125^*	1.528
2008	0.174^*	1.767	2008	0.099^**	2.531
2010	0.240^**	2.157	2010	0.114^**	2.577
2012	0.205^**	1.972	2012	0.133	1.412
2014	0.093^*	1.301	2014	0.127^**	2.695
2016	0.118^*	1.316	2016	0.068	1.628
2018	0.118^*	1.591	2018	0.113^**	2.762

检验统计量	统计值	P值	检验统计量	统计值	P值
LM-spatial lag	28.050	<0.001	Wald-spatial lag	40.280	<0.001
Robust LM-spatial lag	6.939	0.008	Wald-spatial error	33.120	<0.001
LM-spatial error	32.000	<0.001	LR-spatial lag	37.850	<0.001
Robust LM-spatial error	10.889	0.001	LR-spatial error	31.910	<0.001
LR 检验(空间固定效应)	76.230	<0.001	LR 检验(时间固定效应)	258.760	<0.001
Hausman	57.210	<0.001

变量	系数	t值	变量	系数	t值
ln JJ	1.791^***	23.670	W×ln JJ	0.058	0.160
ln SH	1.070^***	11.810	W×ln SH	-1.726^***	-4.910
ln ST	1.211^***	4.350	W×ln ST	1.715^*	1.790
ln GC	-0.135	-0.360	W×ln GC	-3.957^***	-2.640
ρ	0.444^***	4.040
log likelihood	394.406		R²	0.862

变量	直接效应		溢出效应		总效应
变量	系数	t值	系数	t值	系数	t值
ln JJ	1.845^***	25.320	1.458^***	2.940	3.303^***	6.590
ln SH	0.980^***	10.860	-2.222^***	-3.290	-1.242^*	-1.730
ln ST	1.391^***	4.040	4.258^*	1.960	5.649^**	2.390
ln GC	-0.408	-0.910	-7.691^**	-2.320	-8.099^**	-2.300

Spatial spillover effect of urban resilience on tourism economy: A case study of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration

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