顾及时间效应的周围人口与视频监控对街头抢劫者作案地选择的影响研究

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2021.10.009

Abstract

Abstract:

Explaining how offenders choose a crime location is one of the central themes of crime geography. However, previous research on offenders' crime location choice mostly considers the impact of the built environment and social environment, without considering the impact of ambient population and surveillance cameras on street robbery and its temporal difference. To fill this gap, this study integrated ambient population and surveillance cameras in assessing street robbers' decision making and its time effects in ZG City of China, by using the discrete spatial choice modeling. The results demonstrate that ambient population and surveillance cameras have a significant negative impact on street robbers' crime location choice, and they play a protective role in preventing street robbers' criminal activities. Interestingly, we found that the protective effect of ambient population is greater than that of surveillance cameras. The protective role of ambient population and surveillance cameras is stable daily through the week, but diurnally, the influence of ambient population shows temporal fluctuation, while the impact of surveillance cameras is temporally stable. These findings can be of some reference for police control and crime geography research by: 1) Carrying out the experimental evaluation of surveillance camera system's prevention and control effect, and dynamic optimization and adjustment of surveillance cameralocations. 2) Arranging a suitable amount of mixed functional land in urban planning or urban renewal to strengthen the moderation of ambient population through planning or management. 3) Focusing on diurnal variability in future studies of the time effects.

Key words: street robbery, time effects, protective role, crime location choice

LONG Dongping, YUE Han, CHEN Jianguo. Study on the impact of ambient population and surveillance cameras on street robbers’ crime location choice considering time effect[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2021, 40(10): 1716-1729.

Figures/Tables 5

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变量	平均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
自变量
人群日常流动密度 /(万人/km²)	1.14	2.20	0	26.36
社会治安视频监控/个	5.50	13.41	0	364
控制变量
公交站/个	2.91	4.41	0	96
客运站/个	0.06	0.37	0	4
地铁站/个	0.31	1.20	0	14
酒吧与会所/个	1.37	2.34	0	21
网吧/个	0.43	0.96	0	11
体育场馆/个	0.94	2.40	0	47
中学/个	0.46	0.96	0	7
银行与ATM/个	3.92	5.55	0	71
停车场/个	5.81	7.53	0	69
商场与超市/个	3.26	5.47	0	59
杂货店/个	2.28	3.14	0	31
批发市场/个	1.53	2.56	0	24
道路网络密度/(km/km²)	10.82	7.86	1.01	54.07
外来人口比重/%	47	25	0	100
青少年人口比重/%	26	11	0	90
社会经济异质性/%	47.4	24.0	0	85.2

变量	模型1		模型2		模型3		模型4
变量	OR	Z	OR	Z	OR	Z	OR	Z
公交站	1.019^***	23.99	1.019^***	24.37	1.019^***	24.07	1.019^***	24.46
客运站	1.045^***	4.58	1.046^**	4.69	1.044^***	4.47	1.045^***	4.58
地铁站	1.030^***	7.50	1.030^***	7.41	1.030^***	7.36	1.029^***	7.27
酒吧与会所	1.014^***	5.64	1.014^***	5.67	1.014^***	5.57	1.014^***	5.60
网吧	1.000	-0.07	0.999	-0.16	0.999	-0.15	0.999	-0.24
体育场馆	0.975^***	-9.72	0.976^***	-9.43	0.977^***	-9.00	0.977^***	-8.70
中学	1.035^***	6.55	1.035^***	6.49	1.037^***	6.73	1.036^***	6.67
银行与ATM	0.989^***	-8.95	0.989^***	-9.08	0.989^***	-9.17	0.989^***	-9.31
停车场	1.014^***	14.40	1.013^***	13.80	1.014^***	14.56	1.013^***	13.97
商场与超市	1.044^***	66.65	1.044^***	66.80	1.044^***	66.66	1.044^***	66.82
杂货店	1.029^***	15.51	1.029^***	15.61	1.028^***	15.47	1.029^***	15.57
批发市场	1.030^***	15.62	1.029^***	15.51	1.030^***	15.68	1.030^***	15.57
道路网络密度	0.959^***	-31.65	0.966^***	-22.27	0.959^***	-31.74	0.965^***	-22.36
外来人口比重	3.286^***	35.91	3.353^***	36.32	3.289^***	35.93	3.357^***	36.34
青少年人口比重	1.826^***	9.55	1.799^***	9.31	1.848^***	9.71	1.820^***	9.48
社会经济异质性	1.035^***	11.08	1.035^***	11.14	1.036^***	11.28	1.036^***	11.34
人群日常流动密度	—	—	0.957^***	-6.86	—	—	0.957^***	-6.88
社会治安视频监控	—	—	—	—	0.999^*	-2.48	0.999^*	-2.55
伪R²	0.207		0.228		0.227		0.230

不同时段	人群日常流动密度			社会治安视频监控
不同时段	-2 SE	OR	+2 SE	-2 SE	OR	+2 SE
日内时尺度
6:00~8:00	0.150	0.358^**	0.852	0.994	0.998	1.002
8:00~10:00	0.216	0.395^**	0.722	0.994	0.997	1.001
10:00~12:00	0.634	0.889	1.246	0.996	0.999	1.002
12:00~14:00	0.471	0.735	1.147	0.993	0.996^*	0.999
14:00~16:00	0.335	0.548^*	0.897	1.000	1.002	1.005
16:00~18:00	0.497	0.731	1.074	0.997	1.000	1.002
18:00~20:00	0.331	0.478^**	0.691	0.999	1.001	1.003
20:00~22:00	0.331	0.479^***	0.694	0.998	1.000	1.001
22:00~0:00	0.285	0.455^**	0.728	0.997	0.999	1.001
0:00~2:00	0.306	0.596	1.159	0.995	0.997^*	1.000
2:00~4:00	0.054	0.148^***	0.405	0.997	1.000	1.002
4:00~6:00	0.018	0.064^***	0.231	0.993	0.997	1.000
周内日尺度
星期一	0.888	0.920^***	0.954	0.999	1.000	1.002
星期二	0.903	0.935^***	0.968	0.998	1.000	1.002
星期三	0.935	0.964^*	0.994	0.997	0.999	1.000
星期四	0.909	0.941^**	0.975	0.997	0.999	1.001
星期五	0.885	0.919^***	0.953	0.997	0.999	1.000
星期六	0.918	0.948^**	0.980	0.997	0.999	1.001
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Study on the impact of ambient population and surveillance cameras on street robbers’ crime location choice considering time effect

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