PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY ›› 2021, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (8): 1269-1283.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2021.08.002

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System dynamics model-based simulation of energy consumption pattern on the two sides of the Huhuanyong Line in China

ZHAO Sha(), HU Zui*(), ZHENG Wenwu   

  1. College of City & Tourism, Hengyang Normal University, Hengyang 421002, Hunan, China
  • Received:2020-12-04 Revised:2021-04-17 Online:2021-08-28 Published:2021-10-28
  • Contact: HU Zui E-mail:zhaosha_622@163.com;fuyanghuzui@163.com
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China(41771188);Social Science Foundation of Hengyang(2019C019);Platform Project of Hengyang Normal University(HIST20K01);Hunan Postgraduate Scientific Research Innovation Project(CX20190981)

Abstract:

The Huhuanyong Line is a real portrayal of the spatial pattern of population, economic, and social development in China. It perfectly describes key characteristics of energy production and consumption. Quantitatively simulating the spatial pattern of energy consumption on the two sides of the line can provide a reference to achieve regional coordinated development. This study employed data from the China Energy Statistical Yearbook (2005-2014). We first constructed the System Dynamics Model Based on the Huhuanyong Line Energy Consumption Simulation Model (HLECSM-SD) using the GM ( 1,1 ) model and System Dynamics (SD) model. Then, we simulated the pattern of various energy consumptions on the two sides of the line from 2020 to 2025. Finally, this study analyzed energy consumption of China under three scenarios. The results indicate that: 1) The HLECSM-SD model fits the data well. 2) Energy consumption presents the spatial pattern of more in the east and less in the west in China. 3) The change trend of energy consumption growth rate is consistent across the two regions. The east side has a lower growth rate than the west side. 4) On the east side of the line, coal consumption has the characteristics of more in the north and less in the south. This is consistent with the spatial distribution of China's coal resources. The consumptions of petroleum, natural gas, and electricity all have the characteristics of more in the east and less in the central region. This is determined by many factors, such as resource endowment, economic development, population scale, and industrial structure of each province. 5) The influencing factors have different degrees of impact on energy consumption under different scenarios. Our findings can provide some reference for the macro decision making in the energy field.

Key words: Huhuanyong Line, energy consumption, spatial pattern, System Dynamics (SD) model, GM(1,1) model, gridding, scenarios