海河流域雨季气候特征及监测分析

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Climatic characteristics and monitoring analysis of rainy season in the Haihe River Basin

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doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2021.07.009

Abstract:

Based on the daily precipitation and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis circulation data provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL Physical Sciences Laboratory, and in view of the difficulties of rainy season monitoring in North China (the Haihe River Basin), this study established a specific humidity subtropical high method (QSH) for monitoring rainy season in the Haihe River Basin based on continuous meteorological variables and through contrast analysis and reasonableness analysis, and the variation of rainy season in the Haihe River Basin was analyzed. The main conclusions are as follows: 1) It is reasonable to monitor the rainy season in the Haihe River Basin by using the specific humidity-subtropical high method, which has good operability in practice. 2) The average start date of rainy season in the Haihe River Basin is 9 July, the end date is 19 August, and the length of rainy season is 41 days. 3) There was no obvious trend of long-term change of comprehensive intensity index, length of rainy season, and accumulated precipitation of rainy season in the Haihe River Basin during 1961-2019. However, there were obvious interdecadal variations, that is, the rainy season in the Haihe River Basin has a strong or weak periodic change every 18 years, which is in a weak period in recent years.

Key words: Haihe River Basin, rainy season, monitoring, North China

HAO Lisheng, HE Liye, CHENG Shanjun, LIANG Sujie. Climatic characteristics and monitoring analysis of rainy season in the Haihe River Basin[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2021, 40(7): 1181-1194.

Fig.1

Tab.1

Fig.2

Tab.2

Fig.3

Fig.4

Fig.5

Tab.3

Tab.4

Fig.6

Fig.7

Tab.5

Monitoring results of rainy season elements in the Haihe River Basin, 1961-2020

年份	开始日期	结束日期	雨季天数/d	雨季降水量/mm	夏季降水量/mm	雨季强度	夏季异常
1961	07-10	08-04	25	197.1	391.8	正常	偏多
1962	07-09	08-27	49	278.1	367.2	偏强	正常
1963	06-22	08-03	42	163.6	497.7	正常	多
1964	07-01	08-20	50	398.5	481.8	强	多
1965	07-13	08-11	29	92.7	228.2	偏弱	少
1966	07-13	08-18	36	261.2	446.8	正常	多
1967	07-13	08-01	19	81.2	445.8	偏弱	多
1968	07-19	08-20	32	125.5	220.2	偏弱	少
1969	07-17	08-17	31	206.9	426.4	正常	偏多
1970	07-22	08-31	40	202.7	363.3	正常	正常
1971	07-11	08-16	36	151.4	418.0	偏弱	偏多
1972	07-14	08-22	39	167.4	252.8	正常	少
1973	07-04	09-01	59	332.6	506.2	偏强	多
1974	07-25	08-18	24	175.9	374.0	正常	正常
1975	07-14	09-12	60	245.8	330.3	偏强	正常
1976	07-13	08-29	47	342.9	444.0	偏强	多
1977	07-11	08-08	28	270.4	499.2	偏强	多
1978	06-24	09-08	76	394.6	395.0	强	偏多
1979	06-30	08-13	44	230.3	380.0	正常	正常
1980	07-16	08-05	20	59.2	280.4	弱	偏少
1981	07-02	08-04	33	157.2	334.7	偏弱	正常
1982	07-28	08-19	22	177.4	389.6	正常	偏多
1983	07-16	08-15	30	112.6	242.6	偏弱	少
1984	07-02	08-15	44	236.5	347.5	正常	正常
1985	07-19	09-11	54	254.8	347.3	偏强	正常
1986	07-09	08-03	25	88.4	289.5	偏弱	偏少
1987	07-08	08-07	30	103.0	358.1	偏弱	正常
1988	07-04	08-19	46	339.4	417.8	偏强	偏多
1989	07-08	08-17	40	186.9	300.7	正常	偏少
1990	06-19	08-05	47	260.7	404.2	偏强	偏多
1991	07-15	08-04	20	126.3	338.0	偏弱	正常
1992	07-21	08-14	24	160.4	295.3	偏弱	偏少
1993	07-22	08-08	17	104.0	338.1	偏弱	正常
1994	06-27	09-04	69	414.4	443.5	强	多
1995	07-07	08-18	42	295.6	440.7	偏强	偏多
1996	07-14	08-24	41	320.3	486.0	偏强	多
1997	07-01	08-09	39	127.0	188.5	偏弱	少
1998	06-26	08-26	61	316.6	380.9	偏强	正常
1999	07-20	08-20	31	100.2	232.5	偏弱	少
2000	07-01	08-15	45	254.4	323.7	正常	正常
2001	07-01	08-08	38	151.5	299.5	偏弱	偏少
2002	07-19	08-07	19	83.7	234.9	偏弱	少
2003	07-22	08-30	39	174.9	298.3	正常	偏少
2004	07-16	08-19	34	154.2	361.9	偏弱	正常
2005	07-13	08-18	36	224.1	331.6	正常	正常
年份	开始日期	结束日期	雨季天数/d	雨季降水量/mm	夏季降水量/mm	雨季强度	夏季异常
2006	07-08	08-31	54	208.5	305.5	正常	偏少
2007	07-21	08-31	41	150.8	275.8	偏弱	偏少
2008	07-10	08-15	36	144.1	337.2	偏弱	正常
2009	07-05	08-27	53	229.4	307.8	正常	偏少
2010	06-28	09-21	85	359.7	330.1	强	正常
2011	06-24	08-22	59	278.7	341.0	偏强	正常
2012	07-16	08-22	37	261.1	413.3	正常	偏多
2013	07-06	08-25	50	266.6	410.9	偏强	偏多
2014	07-14	08-08	25	66.6	236.6	弱	少
2015	07-07	08-06	30	147.4	267.4	偏弱	偏少
2016	06-30	08-27	58	370.3	460.3	强	多
2017	07-01	08-06	36	170.3	352.5	正常	正常
2018	06-25	09-03	70	350.9	381.6	强	正常
2019	07-16	08-11	26	151.7	280.7	偏弱	偏少
2020	07-18	08-26	39
多年平均	07-09	08-19	41	211	354	正常	正常

Tab.5

Fig.8

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指标	夏季降水异常	日降水量法雨季要素			比湿副高法雨季要素
指标	夏季降水异常	累计降水量	平均降水强度	综合强度	开始日期	结束日期	雨季长度	累计降水量	平均降水强度	综合强度
综合强度指数M	0.60^**	0.35^**	0.54^**	0.27^*	-0.55^**	0.70^**	0.88^**	0.99^**	0.43^**	1.0
夏季降水异常	1.0	0.86^**	0.66^**	0.79^**	-0.30^*	0.14	0.29^*	0.65^**	0.67^**	0.60^**

夏季降水量偏多的次数

夏季降水量正常的次数

夏季降水量偏少的次数

时段	开始日期		结束日期		雨季长度/d
时段	日降水量法	比湿副高法	日降水量法	比湿副高法	日降水量法	比湿副高法
1961—1970年	07-05	07-11	08-21	08-15	47	35
1971—1980年	06-25	07-10	08-14	08-23	50	44
1981—1990年	07-02	07-09	08-20	08-15	49	37
1991—2000年	07-01	07-09	08-13	08-18	43	40
2001—2010年	07-14	07-11	08-06	08-24	23	44
2011—2019年	07-05	07-05	08-18	08-18	44	44
1961—2019年	07-02	07-09	08-18	08-19	47	41

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