地缘战略交汇区地缘环境演变评估模型构建及其应用——以乌克兰为例

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2021.06.010

Abstract

Abstract:

Geopolitical setting research is the focus and hot spot of political geography in China. Significant progress has been made in the areas of conceptual framing, connotation, analytical framework, spatial differentiation, system simulation, and so on. However, the study of geopolitical setting in geopolitical-strategic intersection areas has not been fully developed. This study constructed an evaluation model of geopolitical setting in geopolitical-strategic intersection area based on the space and power of geopolitical strategy, by combining the theories of geopolitical setting and geopolitical potential in political geography, and realism, liberalism, and constructivism in international relations, and by giving consideration to the philosophy of inter-subjectivity. This study also took Ukraine as an empirical study to verify the reliability of the model. The results show that: 1) On the whole, Ukraine's geopolitical setting tends to be improving, but it fluctuates violently, and will be intermittently turbulent in the future. 2) Under the influence of historical and cultural origin, military material power, strategic investment willingness, economic interdependence, geographic and spatial distance, and other factors, Russia has maintained a large geopolitical potential advantage in Ukraine. 3) Germany's geopolitical potential in Ukraine fluctuates greatly from year to year, and is on the rise in recent years due to the influence of geoeconomic factors. The geopolitical potential of France and the United States in Ukraine has been lower than Russia and Germany. In the future, the geopolitical potential of France will increase slightly, while that of the United States will decrease. The geopolitical setting evaluation model of geopolitical-strategic intersection area proposed in this study has been verified by historical data, and the assessment results have a high fitting degree with the evolution of domestic political situation in Ukraine. The model has reasonable reliability, and can provide reference for the geopolitical setting evaluation in other geopolitical-strategic intersection areas.

Key words: geopolitical-strategic intersection area, geopolitical setting, inter-subjectivity, geopolitical potential, Ukraine

YE Shuai, HU Zhiding, GE Yuejing, HU Wei, HUANG Yu. Construction and application of a geopolitical setting evolution model in an area of geopolitical-strategic intersection: Taking Ukraine as an example[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2021, 40(6): 1000-1011.

Figures/Tables 7

Fig.1

Tab.1

Set of absolute power (P) indicators and weight assignment of geopolitical actors

一级指标	权重	二级指标	权重	三级指标(单位)	权重	指标解释
硬实力M₁	0.5	基本实力M₁₁	0.2	国土面积M₁₁₁(km²)	0.30	一个国家的陆地总面积,不包括领海、殖民地
				人口数量M₁₁₂(亿人)	0.25	一个国家的户籍人口总量
				一次性能源产量M₁₁₃(万t标准煤)	0.45	原煤、原油、天然气产量及水电、风电、核电和其他非燃料能源(地热、太阳能)的发电总量
		经济实力M₁₂	0.4	GDP总量M₁₂₁(亿美元)	0.30	按国家市场价格计算的一个国家(或地区)所有常驻单位在一定时期内生产活动的最终成果
				人均GDPM₁₂₂(美元)	0.40	GDP总量与人口总量的比值
				进出口贸易额M₁₂₃(亿美元)	0.30	实际进出一国国境的货物总金额
		军事实力M₁₃	0.3	军费支出M₁₃₁(亿美元)	0.70	用于军事建设、武器装备研发及制造、发动战争及军事演习的总经费
		军事实力M₁₃	0.3	武装部队M₁₃₂(人)	0.30	国家或政治集团所拥有的各种武装力量的统称,军队和其他正规的、非正规的武装组织组成的武装人口数
		科技实力M₁₄	0.1	教育普及率M₁₄₁(高中学生入学率,%)	0.30	特定年龄的人口中达到某层次学校毕业人数的比例
				科技期刊文章M₁₄₂(篇)	0.10	在具有固定刊名、刊期、年卷或年月顺序编号、印刷成册、以报道科学技术为主要内容的连续出版物上发表的文章数量
				居民专利申请量M₁₄₃(件)	0.10	专利审批机构受理的技术发明申请专利的数量,包括发明专利申请量、实用新型专利申请量和外观设计专利申请量
				研发支出M₁₄₄(亿美元)	0.30	在研究与开发过程中所使用资产的折旧、消耗的原材料、直接参与开发人员的工资及福利费、开发过程中发生的租金以及借款费用
				高科技产品出口额M₁₄₅(亿美元)	0.20	一定时期内一国从国内向国外出口的技术含量高、附加值高、采用高科技手段生产的商品的全部价值
软实力M₂	0.5	对外吸引力M₂₁	0.5	留学生人数M₂₁₁(万人)	0.40	正在或曾在户籍国以外进行学习的各类学生人口的总数
		对外吸引力M₂₁	0.5	文化产品出口额M₂₁₂(亿美元)	0.60	一国出口贸易中文化产品部分的交易额
		对外辐射力M₂₂	0.5	维和活动人数M₂₂₁(人)	0.25	参与由联合国组织的,旨在维持和维护世界和平与稳定良好秩序的人口数量
				对外直接投资M₂₂₂(亿美元)	0.50	一国企业、团体在国外或地区以现金、实物、无形资产等方式投资,并以控制国(境)外企业的经营管理权为核心的经济活动
				联合国经费分摊比额M₂₂₃(%)	0.25	各国向联合国缴纳经费的比例

Tab.1

Tab.2

Tab.3

Tab.4

Fig.2

Tab.5

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意愿级别	取值范围	利益考量
特别强烈	1	领土完整/主权独立
强烈	(0.5, 1)	战略缓冲/围堵支点
一般	(0, 0.5]	经济攸关/意识形态
无意愿	0	不涉及

一级指标	二级指标	三级指标	指标解释及计算方法
地理环境r	自然地理环境r₁	地形地貌r₁₁	地形地貌数据取自陆地国界线上的海拔高程。首先利用GIS技术对乌克兰与北约国家(波兰、斯洛伐克、匈牙利、罗马尼亚)间的国界线,每间隔2 km测一次海拔,然后计算平均海拔,最后取全国陆疆平均海拔与北约国家边界平均海拔比值为该指标的可介入指数
地理环境r	自然地理环境r₁	河流湖泊r₁₂	河流湖泊取自陆地国界线两侧30 km范围内的水域面积,计算方法同地形地貌
	社会经济文化环境r₂	民族构成r₂₁	社会经济文化环境各指标采用定性方法。如俄罗斯族、东正教教徒、亚努科维奇领导的地区党和俄罗斯语使用居民多数主张亲俄,取对应人群的比例作为三级指标数据。一级指标由三级、二级指标分层累加汇总得到
		宗教信仰r₂₂
		政党制度r₂₃
		语言文化r₂₄

年份	行为体
年份	美国	德国	法国	美、德、法地缘利益集团复合位势	俄罗斯
2000	0.76	11.19	4.56	16.51	12.66
2001	0.64	11.43	4.32	16.39	13.58
2002	0.58	12.51	4.26	17.35	16.07
2003	0.59	13.24	4.36	18.19	17.68
2004	0.67	10.07	4.48	15.21	22.30
2005	0.63	12.77	5.80	19.21	25.43
2006	0.77	14.59	5.73	21.08	35.25
2007	0.84	12.98	5.89	19.72	44.40
2008	0.67	11.85	5.55	18.07	44.84
2009	0.71	14.18	4.67	19.56	34.42
2010	0.75	16.86	5.17	22.78	36.60
2011	0.71	16.97	5.16	22.84	39.57
2012	0.72	15.49	4.84	21.05	43.31
2013	0.76	15.87	4.64	21.27	54.66
2014	0.82	15.15	4.60	20.57	45.94
2015	0.99	16.62	5.33	22.94	38.09
2016	0.98	16.22	5.38	22.57	43.55
2017	0.84	17.58	5.48	23.91	46.68

阶段	地缘环境变化趋势	重要事件
2000—2003年	恶化	“韦列夏吉诺号”事件
2003—2008年	良性	“橙色革命”危机
2008—2010年	恶化	尤先科下台
2010—2013年	良性	亚努科维奇执政
2013—2015年	恶化	2013乌克兰危机
2015—2017年	良性	“诺曼底四方”会谈

Construction and application of a geopolitical setting evolution model in an area of geopolitical-strategic intersection: Taking Ukraine as an example

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