PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY ›› 2021, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (6): 1000-1011.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2021.06.010

• Articles • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Construction and application of a geopolitical setting evolution model in an area of geopolitical-strategic intersection: Taking Ukraine as an example

YE Shuai1,2,3(), HU Zhiding4,5,*(), GE Yuejing6,2,1, HU Wei7, HUANG Yu8   

  1. 1. School of Geographical Science, Qinghai Normal University, Xining 810008, China
    2. Academy of Plateau Science and Sustainability, Xining 810008, China
    3. MOE Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Land Surface Processes and Ecological Conservation, Xining 810008, China
    4. Institute of Global Innovation and Development, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China
    5. Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou), Guangzhou 511458, China
    6. Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    7. College of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Zhejiang Normal University, Jinhua 321004, Zhejiang, China
    8. State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System Science (LATPES), Beijing 100101, China
  • Received:2020-07-24 Revised:2020-09-11 Online:2021-06-28 Published:2021-08-28
  • Contact: HU Zhiding;
  • Supported by:
    Major Program of National Social Science Foundation of China(20&ZD138)


Geopolitical setting research is the focus and hot spot of political geography in China. Significant progress has been made in the areas of conceptual framing, connotation, analytical framework, spatial differentiation, system simulation, and so on. However, the study of geopolitical setting in geopolitical-strategic intersection areas has not been fully developed. This study constructed an evaluation model of geopolitical setting in geopolitical-strategic intersection area based on the space and power of geopolitical strategy, by combining the theories of geopolitical setting and geopolitical potential in political geography, and realism, liberalism, and constructivism in international relations, and by giving consideration to the philosophy of inter-subjectivity. This study also took Ukraine as an empirical study to verify the reliability of the model. The results show that: 1) On the whole, Ukraine's geopolitical setting tends to be improving, but it fluctuates violently, and will be intermittently turbulent in the future. 2) Under the influence of historical and cultural origin, military material power, strategic investment willingness, economic interdependence, geographic and spatial distance, and other factors, Russia has maintained a large geopolitical potential advantage in Ukraine. 3) Germany's geopolitical potential in Ukraine fluctuates greatly from year to year, and is on the rise in recent years due to the influence of geoeconomic factors. The geopolitical potential of France and the United States in Ukraine has been lower than Russia and Germany. In the future, the geopolitical potential of France will increase slightly, while that of the United States will decrease. The geopolitical setting evaluation model of geopolitical-strategic intersection area proposed in this study has been verified by historical data, and the assessment results have a high fitting degree with the evolution of domestic political situation in Ukraine. The model has reasonable reliability, and can provide reference for the geopolitical setting evaluation in other geopolitical-strategic intersection areas.

Key words: geopolitical-strategic intersection area, geopolitical setting, inter-subjectivity, geopolitical potential, Ukraine