PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY ›› 2021, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (4): 620-634.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2021.04.007

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Regional industrial diversification of China: Based on technological relatedness and complexity

LI Wei1,2(), HE Canfei3,4,*()   

  1. 1. Chinese Academy of Macroeconomic Research, Beijing 100038, China
    2. College of Economics, Renmin University, Beijing 100872, China
    3. College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
    4. Peking University-Lincoln Institute Center for Urban Developmentand Land Policy, Beijing 100871, China
  • Received:2020-03-30 Revised:2020-11-03 Online:2021-04-28 Published:2021-06-28
  • Contact: HE Canfei E-mail:xiari.liwei@163.com;hecanfei@urban.pku.edu.cn
  • Supported by:
    Key Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41731278);Youth Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42001140);National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars of China(41425001)

Abstract:

Using export data of the China Customs Database from 2000 to 2016 and methods measuring path-dependent and path-creation new industries and technological complexity of industries, this study analyzed the regional industrial development paths of China. Four types of regional industrial development paths were identified based on technological relatedness and technological complexity dimensions. The results show that, first, Chinese exports have an increasing trend in spatial dispersion, moving from the core cities of the Pearl River Delta to the core cities of the Yangtze River Delta and Shandong Province, and then to the peripheral areas of the Yangtze River Delta, the provincial capital cities of the central and western regions, and Jiangxi Province. Second, regional industrial diversification shows a high level of path dependence. From 2000 to 2016, path-dependent new industries accounted for about 70% of the total, while the figure for path-creation new industries was about 30%. Developed areas in coastal regions and capital cities in the central and western regions showed more path-creation characteristics. Third, in terms of path-dependent new industries, a half of them have a higher technological complexity than their parent incumbent industries. Regarding path-creation new industries, roughly two thirds of them have a higher technological complexity than their corresponding city average. Fourth, coastal regions have more path-creation new industries with a higher technological complexity, while the central and western regions have more path-dependent new industries with lower technological complexity. The results indicate that the Chinese government should take measures to promote the development of path-creation new industries with a higher technological complexity in the central and western regions.

Key words: exports, path dependence, path creation, technological relatedness of industries, technological complexity of industries