中国互联网企业生存的时空格局及影响因素研究

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2021.03.005

Abstract

Abstract:

With the implementation of the "mass entrepreneurship and innovation" strategy, China has entered a golden era of entrepreneurship. As one of the most important innovations, Internet has increasingly become a new driver of regional competitive advantage. Drawing on a unique dataset of Chinese Internet firms during 1994-2019, this study investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics and survival determinants of startups in China by the spatial econometric and survival analysis methods (Kaplan-Meier method and time-dependent Cox regression model). We found that: 1) The number of Internet startups in China reached a high speed of increase during the past 25 years. It grew slowly in the early stage and then rose sharply around 2015, showing a "S-shaped" trend. The survival time of Internet firms across four cohorts is significantly different—those who entered earlier usually have a longer survival time. It is common that new firms face a high survival risk regardless of cohorts, because they are not strong enough to compete with the big companies and resist various risks. 2) The spatial pattern of Internet firm survival varies significantly among regions. There is an obvious urban preference in the existing numbers. Regions with long firm survival time are mainly located in the eastern areas of China, which enjoy a high level of economic development and population concentration. However, with the industrial development and increasing number of entries, both the regional resource advantage and competition pressure of the eastern region have become greater. As a result, the survival advantage of the central areas of China starts to appear. 3) In terms of survival determinants, firm heterogeneity, cohort, and entrepreneurial environment all show significant effects. Among the firm features, larger scale and higher investment rounds usually have a stable protective effect and would reduce the survival risk remarkably. At the cohort level, the average survival time of the early-entering startups is significantly higher, and favorable entrepreneurial environment imposes survival risk as a whole mainly because of the competition effect. 4) While the incubation environment changes from incentive effect to competitive effect over cohorts, the protection effect of firm scale and life cycle, as well as Internet infrastructure, gradually weakens. This study could provide empirical support for the longitudinal development of Chinese Internet innovation and entrepreneurship wave, as well as an interesting case study for the geography of entrepreneurship.

Key words: Internet entrepreneurship, spatial pattern, firm survival, cohort effect, digital economy, China

LIU Tingting, WANG Mingfeng, ZHANG Yinghao, WANG Fan, WU Mingyu. Spatiotemporal pattern and determinants of Internet firm survival in China[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2021, 40(3): 410-421.

Figures/Tables 9

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References 48

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划分依据	时间节点	阶段划分	主要特征
重点产业方向^[29]	1995—2000年	传播信息化	基础服务、通讯工具、资讯门户
	2000—2008年	电子商务化	信息产品多元化、商务化
	2008—2014年	服务业平台化	移动互联网,O2O、B2C模式兴起
社会联结程度^[32]	1994—2008年	PC互联网	门户(邮件、搜索、新闻)
	2008—2016年	移动互联网	博客、微博、微信
	2016年开始	智能物联网	云、短视频、VR、AI
商业、制度和文化创新^[33]	至1994年	科研阶段	邮件
	1994—2001年	互联网1.0	商业化阶段——门户、B2C
	2002—2008年	互联网2.0	社会化阶段——博客、视频、SNS
	2009—2014年	互联网3.0	即时化阶段——微博、微信
	2015—2024年	网络空间时代	网络空间阶段——变革各行各业
“连接”的演进^[34]	—	前Web时代	机器连接的终端网络
	—	Web 1.0时代	超链接形成的内容网络
	—	Web 2.0时代	个体连接形成的关系网络
	—	Web 3.0时代	内容和终端连接质变的服务网络

样本	平均生存时间/a	生存时间所占比例/%
样本	平均生存时间/a	1 a以下	1~3 a	3~5 a	5~7 a	7 a以上
退出企业	3.51	0.93	49.91	32.17	15.05	1.93
所有企业	6.70	1.93	17.01	29.13	19.86	32.07

指标	世代一	世代二	世代三	世代四
Moran's I	0.123	0.115	0.034	0.002
P值	<0.001	<0.001	0.014	0.698
Z得分	8.425	7.761	2.467	0.388

指标	变量	变量符号	赋值
企业特征	企业规模	Siz	职工数量(0：不明确;1：小于10人;2：10~50人;3：50~100人;4：100~500人;5：500人以上)
	生命周期	Rou	企业获投轮次(0：不明确;1：未获投;2：A轮之前;3：A/B轮;4：C轮到上市前;5：上市/退市/战略投资)
成立世代	世代一	C1	成立于第一波浪潮(1994—2001年)的企业数量(个)
	世代二	C2	成立于第二波浪潮(2002—2008年)的企业数量(个)
	世代三	C3	成立于第三波浪潮(2009—2014年)的企业数量(个)
	世代四	C4	成立于第四波浪潮(2015—2019年)的企业数量(个)
创业环境	孵化环境	Inc	城市国家级科技孵化器和众创空间数量(个)
	风险投资	Inv	城市风险投资机构数量(个)
	基础设施	Inf	城市单位人口宽带接入数(户)
控制变量	地理区域	Loc	城市所处地区(1：北方地区;0：南方地区)
	企业进入	Ent	城市1994—2019年互联网企业进入数量(个)
	经济水平	Eco	城市人均GDP(万元)
	人力资本	Stu	城市大学生数量(万人)

变量	模型1	模型2	模型3	模型4	模型5(C1)	模型6(C2)	模型7(C3)
Siz	0.616^*** (0.006)			0.637^*** (0.006)	0.545^*** (0.054)	0.634^*** (0.023)	0.646^*** (0.008)
Rou	0.522^*** (0.008)			0.539^*** (0.008)	0.453^*** (0.076)	0.585^*** (0.003)	0.503^*** (0.009)
C1		0.910^*** (0.024)		0.914^*** (0.024)
C2		0.966^* (0.017)		0.967^* (0.017)
C3		1.218^*** (0.016)		1.219^*** (0.016)
Inc			1.001^*** (<0.001)	1.001^*** (<0.001)	0.996^* (0.012)	1.001 (0.004)	1.003^*** (0.001)
Inv			1.001^*** (<0.001)	1.001^*** (<0.001)	1.017 (0.013)	1.005 (0.003)	1.003^*** (0.001)
Inf			0.910^*** (0.027)	0.909^*** (0.027)	0.101^** (0.013)	0.964 (0.842)	0.746 (0.140)
Loc	1.309^*** (0.035)	1.320^*** (0.035)	0.920^* (0.043)	0.972 (0.043)	0.064^** (0.081)	1.000 (0.313)	0.904 (0.064)
Eco	1.019^*** (0.004)	1.018^*** (0.004)	0.987 (0.008)	1.000 (0.008)	1.355^* (0.217)	1.009 (0.059)	0.981 (0.012)
Stu	1.001^* (<0.001)	1.001 (<0.001)	1.002^*** (0.001)	1.000 (0.001)	0.981^* (0.010)	1.003 (0.004)	0.999 (0.001)
Log likelihood	-66438.296	-65888.250	-66113.622	-65564.708	-228.570	-2519.486	-46525.564
LR chi2	7173.02	7302.72	7822.37	7951.81	108.04	480.97	4983.76

Spatiotemporal pattern and determinants of Internet firm survival in China

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