多时期演变视角下中国人口收缩区的识别、空间特征与成因类型分析

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2021.03.001

Abstract

Abstract:

Regional population decline has gradually become a new phenomenon in recent years, which has attracted extensive attention from scholars and the government. Using the national census data and 1% population sampling survey data, this study identified the population decline areas at the county level from 1990 to 2015 from a multi-periodical perspective. Based on the theoretical analysis of the driving factors of population decline, a cluster analysis has been conducted to reveal the spatial differences of the driving factors of population decline, which resulted in four typical cases of causes. The findings are as follows: First, the population decline areas have very different trajectories: while about 24% of them are characterized by fluctuating but overall decline, about 13% of them have experienced continuous decline, and about 5% of them have only experienced recent decline. Second, the fluctuating but overall decline county units were mainly distributed in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and Gansu, Shaanxi, Jiangsu, and Fujian Provinces, and the continuous decline county units were mainly concentrated in Sichuan, Guizhou, Chongqing, and the Northeast region, and the recent decline county units were mainly concentrated in the Northeast region, Henan, and Xinjiang. Third, there are obvious regional differences in the driving factors of population decline: the county units driven by lagged economy accounted for the highest percentage, and these units were mainly distributed in the central and western regions; the county units in the Northeast region were mainly driven by the slowed economic development and the low natural growth level; in contrast, the percentage of county units only driven by the low natural growth level is relatively low, and these units were mainly distributed in the eastern region. Based on these findings, we argue that it is necessary to pay more attention to the phenomenon of population decline at the regional scale, and take targeted measures by fully considering the trend of change and driving factors of population decline in different regions.

Key words: population decline, population change, migration, county-level, China

LIU Zhen, QI Wei, QI Honggang, LIU Shenghe. Spatial distribution of population decline areas in China and underlying causes from a multi-periodical perspective[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2021, 40(3): 357-369.

Figures/Tables 11

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收缩区演变类型	全国		东部地区		中部地区		西部地区		东北地区
收缩区演变类型	数量/个	占比/%	数量/个	占比/%	数量/个	占比/%	数量/个	占比/%	数量/个	占比/%
持续收缩型	278	13.0	47	9.0	51	9.5	112	12.4	68	39.5
近期增长转收缩型	112	5.2	17	3.3	32	6.0	31	3.4	32	18.6
波动收缩型	511	23.9	106	20.3	144	26.9	227	25.1	34	19.8
波动增长型	205	9.6	56	10.7	64	12.0	71	7.9	14	8.1
总计	1106	51.8	226	43.3	291	54.4	441	48.8	148	86.0

影响因素	变量	变量简称	说明
经济发展水平	人均GDP	Pergdp	1990年取人均工农业生产总值,其他年份为人均国内生产总值
经济发展水平	非农就业占比	Pjob	二三产业从业人口占总人口的比例
经济增长速度	人均GDP增长率	Rgdp	人均GDP期末值相比期初值的增长率
经济增长速度	非农就业占比变化	Rjob	非农就业占比期末值与期初值的差值
公共服务和基础设施	交通便捷度	Traffic	公路网总长度与总面积的比值
公共服务和基础设施	教育水平	Pedu	按照现行学制为受教育年数计算的6岁以上人口平均受教育年限
人口自然增长	出生率	Birth	年出生人口与年平均人口的比值
人口自然增长	老龄化率	Aging	65岁以上人口占总人口的比值

变量	1990—2000年	2000—2010年	2010—2015年
Pergdp	0.35^**	0.59^**	0.29^**
Pjob	0.48^**	0.67^**	0.21^**
Rgdp	0.29^**	0.52^**	0.21^**
Rjob	0.27^**	-0.01	0.03^*
Traffic	0.16^**	0.39^**	0.26^**
Pedu	0.29^**	0.41^**	0.17^**
Birth	0.02	0.12^*	0.24^**
Aging	-0.25^**	-0.17^**	-0.22^**

Spatial distribution of population decline areas in China and underlying causes from a multi-periodical perspective

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