Abstract:

Along with the urban industrial structure adjustment and the development of the rural economy, a large-scale backflow of inter-provincial migrant workers gradually emerged, which had a tremendous impact on China's economic and social development. The spatial differences and influencing factors of inter-provincial migrant workers' backflow intention are vital issues, particularly in predicting the changing demographic trends and understanding the migrant population's needs and demands. Drawing on data from the 2016 China Migrant Population Dynamic Survey, this study discussed the spatial distribution and influencing factors of 82846 inter-provincial migrant workers from 31 provinces of China's mainland using a binary Logistic regression model. The results are as follows: 1) Older migrant workers with lower education level or without stable marital status seem to have stronger backflow intention. 2) The distribution of backflow intention presents a remarkable spatial differentiation. Among the three main geographical regions, the backflow intention of migrant workers currently in the eastern and western regions of China is stronger while the migrant workers who came from the central region express their clear willingness to return. 3) Backflow intention is influenced by personal factors of migrant population, their migration characteristics, family factors, and institutional factors. For all the factors, age, marital status, education, years of working after migration, migrating with family or not, family income, housing condition, and social security system are significant forces that shape the spatial pattern of inter-provincial migrant workers' backflow intention in China.

Key words: inter-provincial migrant workers, backflow intention, spatial difference, binary Logistic regression model