长江三角洲人口分布演变、偏移增长及影响因素

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2020.12.009

Abstract

Abstract:

Population distribution is an important indicator of regional development patterns. Also, regional coordinated development is closely related to the balanced distribution of the population. In the context of the regional integration of the Yangtze River Delta as a national strategy, the population distribution across the Yangtze River Delta has undergone significant changes. Using Kernal density analysis, gravity center analysis, concentration index, and shift-share analysis methods, this study examined the spatio-temporal change characteristics of the population in the Yangtze River Delta from 2000 to 2018, and explored the influencing factors as well as internal mechanisms of population growth shifts by utilizing quantitative methods. The main conclusions are as follows: 1) The shift in the population distribution trend led by some cities did not significantly change the imbalanced pattern of regional population distribution, and the increase in the concentration index indicates that the regional population concentration showed a steady growth trend. 2) The research based on shift-share analysis found that the shift in population growth pattern was mainly manifested in the acceleration of population growth in some underdeveloped areas. For example, Anhui Province was transformed into positive growth shift at the provincial scale. On the city scale, the positive growth shift dominated by core developed cities has changed to the positive growth shift dominated by some less developed cities. The spatial distribution of positive growth shift of municipal districts changed from the core areas to the peripheral areas. However, the population was still attracted to a few large cities and municipal districts. The diversified population growth shift trend characterizes the differentiated demands for future development strategies. 3) Economic factors, social development, and financial resources were important driving forces of population growth shift in the Yangtze River Delta. However, the temporal and spatial change of influencing factors shows that the formulation of future population balancing policies not only needs to be adapted to local conditions, but also should evolve through time. This research not only provides a reference for the formulation of relevant population policies, but also enriches the empirical findings on the spatial and temporal change of population.

Key words: population distribution, growth shift, shift-share analysis method, Yangtze River Delta

YAN Dongsheng, SUN Wei, WANG Yue, XU Shiyao. Change in distribution and growth shifts of population in the Yangtze River Delta and influencing factors[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2020, 39(12): 2068-2082.

Figures/Tables 12

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References 24

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指数	2000年	2001年	2002年	2003年	2004年	2005年	2006年	2007年	2008年	2009年
CI	0.1974	0.2020	0.2053	0.2079	0.2117	0.2148	0.2183	0.2245	0.2292	0.2332
指数	2010年	2011年	2012年	2013年	2014年	2015年	2016年	2017年	2018年
CI	0.2459	0.2480	0.2493	0.2511	0.2525	0.2532	0.2549	0.2574	0.2601

年份	长江三角洲			分区域人口增长率/%
年份	总人口/万人	增长率/%	占全国比重/%	上海市	江苏省	浙江省	安徽省
2000	19651.70	1.79	15.51	2.65	0.79	4.57	0.69
2001	19868.01	1.10	15.57	3.71	1.00	1.04	0.57
2002	20015.38	0.74	15.58	2.68	0.53	1.01	0.26
2003	20217.24	1.01	15.64	3.09	0.67	1.68	0.31
2004	20478.51	1.29	15.75	3.92	0.79	1.41	1.05
2005	20556.75	0.38	15.72	3.01	0.87	1.33	-1.73
2006	20767.86	1.03	15.80	3.91	0.88	1.62	-0.16
2007	21025.88	1.24	15.91	5.06	0.88	1.64	0.13
2008	21230.86	0.97	15.99	3.73	0.69	1.12	0.28
2009	21403.16	0.81	16.04	3.25	0.56	1.21	-0.07
2010	21545.97	0.67	16.07	4.18	0.69	3.24	-2.84
2011	21662.53	0.54	16.08	1.95	0.56	0.30	0.18
2012	21754.83	0.43	16.07	1.40	0.32	0.26	0.34
2013	21872.89	0.54	16.07	1.46	0.26	0.38	0.70
2014	21966.46	0.43	16.06	0.44	0.25	0.18	0.88
2015	22066.45	0.46	16.05	-0.43	0.23	0.56	1.00
2016	22193.15	0.57	16.05	0.18	0.24	0.92	0.85
2017	22344.28	0.68	16.07	-0.06	0.33	1.20	0.95
2018	22535.08	0.85	16.15	0.23	0.46	1.41	1.10

省市	2000—2018年	2000—2012年	2012—2018年
上海市	579.16	599.68	-42.03
江苏省	-286.20	-138.85	-142.38
浙江省	370.43	296.24	63.56
安徽省	-663.39	-757.07	120.84

变量类型	编号	变量名称(单位)	观测值数量^*	最小值	最大值	标准差
自然条件	X₁	年平均气温(℃)	756	13.80	21.60	1.13
经济因素	X₂	城镇居民可支配收入(万元)	756	0.44	4.66	0.86
	X₃	就业人口(万人)	756	39.80	1375.00	194.48
	X₄	固定资产投资(亿元)	756	21.24	5771.17	1191.37
	X₅	FDI(亿美元)	756	0.00	185.14	22.90
	X₆	三产比重(%)	756	23.40	69.90	7.22
社会发展	X₇	公路密度(km/km²)	756	0.20	2.44	0.46
	X₈	万人医疗卫生院床位数(张)	756	9.63	96.59	13.96
	X₉	建成区绿化覆盖率(%)	756	13.80	77.78	7.08
财政水平	X₁₀	人均财政支出(元)	756	253.72	29504.05	3946.31

变量	2001—2018年		2001—2012年		2012—2018年
变量	FE	RE	FE	RE	FE	RE
X₁	0.0046 (0.02)	-0.0580 (-0.23)	-0.0487 (-0.18)	-0.1286 (-0.47)	-0.1628 (-1.16)	-0.1616 (-1.16)
X₂	2.4180^** (2.11)	0.6190 (0.60)	3.8060^** (2.09)	0.7650 (0.45)	1.4570^* (1.68)	1.4370^* (1.71)
X₃	0.0038^*** (2.91)	0.0015^** (2.38)	0.0016^** (2.27)	0.0086^** (2.54)	0.0019^*** (2.72)	0.0017^*** (2.66)
X₄	-0.0012 (-1.59)	-0.0011 (-1.49)	0.0015^*** (2.75)	0.0007^** (2.35)	-0.0007^** (-2.12)	-0.0007^** (-2.20)
X₅	0.1434^*** (3.26)	0.2466^*** (6.99)	0.2163^*** (2.78)	0.4077^*** (5.98)	0.0594^** (2.56)	0.0553^*** (2.68)
X₆	0.1448^** (2.50)	0.1779^* (1.95)	0.1338^** (2.03)	0.3311^*** (2.68)	0.0185^*** (3.32)	0.0236^*** (3.43)
X₇	0.7700 (0.52)	-1.6275 (-1.33)	5.8110^** (2.50)	4.0857^** (2.41)	-1.6155^* (-1.87)	-1.5234^* (-1.89)
X₈	0.3385^*** (5.61)	0.2638^*** (4.61)	0.1826^** (2.14)	0.1672^* (1.95)	0.1318^*** (3.68)	0.1354^*** (4.15)
X₉	-0.0460 (-0.19)	-0.0085 (-0.04)	-0.1130 (-0.45)	-0.0791 (-0.31)	0.0796^** (2.11)	0.0787^** (2.12)
X₁₀	0.0004^*** (2.61)	0.0009^*** (3.61)	0.0017^*** (2.80)	0.001^*** (3.17)	-0.0004^*** (-3.37)	-0.0004^*** (-3.36)
R²	0.36	0.35	0.37	0.34	0.32	0.34
Hausman检验	16.97^**		25.09^***		30.38^***

Change in distribution and growth shifts of population in the Yangtze River Delta and influencing factors

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变量	模型1	模型2	模型3	模型4
X₁	-0.650 (-0.35)	-0.180 (-0.69)	0.170 (0.59)	-0.066 (-0.20)
X₂	1.108^** (2.20)	2.204^*** (3.06)	-1.282^*** (-4.02)	-0.422 (-1.01)
X₃	0.116^* (1.70)	0.015^** (2.42)	0.055^*** (3.68)	0.023^*** (3.67)
X₄	-0.003^*** (-2.82)	0.003^*** (2.60)	-0.002^* (-1.82)	0.043^** (2.38)
X₅	0.285^* (1.94)	0.113 (0.38)	0.200^*** (2.70)	0.121^** (2.12)
X₆	0.133 (1.42)	0.061^*** (3.39)	1.302 (1.09)	0.012^*** (3.06)
X₇	6.665^** (2.42)	0.392^** (2.14)	2.790 (1.22)	-3.024^* (-1.72)
X₈	0.096^** (2.32)	0.168^** (2.47)	0.622^** (2.35)	0.191^* (1.80)
X₉	0.724^** (2.39)	0.073 (0.34)	0.056^** (2.17)	-0.101 (-0.31)
X₁₀	-0.008 (-0.53)	0.003^*** (3.05)	-0.001 (-1.05)	0.001^* (1.75)
R²	0.34	0.30	0.30	0.44
Hausman检验	12.78^**	23.55^***	37.17^***	19.88^**

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