PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY ›› 2020, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (12): 1985-1998.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2020.12.003
• Articles • Previous Articles Next Articles
FU Hui(), LIU Yanjun*(
), SUN Hongri, ZHOU Guolei
Received:
2020-01-20
Revised:
2020-05-07
Online:
2020-12-28
Published:
2021-02-28
Contact:
LIU Yanjun
E-mail:fuh247@nenu.edu.cn;liuyj323@nenu.edu.cn
Supported by:
FU Hui, LIU Yanjun, SUN Hongri, ZHOU Guolei. Spatiotemporal characteristics and dynamic mechanism of cultivated land use transition in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2020, 39(12): 1985-1998.
Tab.1
Index system of cultivated land use form"
决策层 | 目标层及权重 | 指标层 | 指标计算 | 指标权重 | 指标释义 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
耕地利用 形态指数 | 显性形态 0.4997 | 人均耕地面积 | 耕地面积/总人口(hm2/人) | 0.38 | 耕地数量水平 |
人均粮食播种面积 | 粮食播种面积/总人口(hm2/人) | 0.25 | 粮食安全状况 | ||
耕地斑块占景观面积指数(PLAND) | 利用景观分析软件Fragstats计算 | 0.23 | 耕地空间结构 | ||
耕地斑块聚集度指数(AI) | 利用景观分析软件Fragstats计算 | 0.14 | 耕地集聚程度 | ||
隐性形态 0.5003 | 粮食单产 | 粮食产量/粮食播种面积(kg/hm2) | 0.14 | 耕地质量水平 | |
单位耕地面积化肥用量 | 农用化肥施用量/耕地面积(t/hm2) | 0.39 | 耕地投入强度 | ||
农业人均产值 | 农业总产值/农业人口(元/人) | 0.34 | 耕地经济产出 | ||
单位耕地供养人数 | 农业人口/耕地面积(人/hm2) | 0.13 | 耕地供养功能 |
Tab.2
Indicators of influencing factors of cultivated land use transition"
准则层 | 指标层 | 指标计算或来源 | 指标释义 |
---|---|---|---|
自然环境因素 | 高程 | 根据DEM计算高程值 | 地形地貌基础 |
年降水量 | 根据气象站点数据计算地区平均值 | 区域降水条件 | |
距主要河流距离 | 根据水系分布计算欧氏距离 | 区域水文环境 | |
经济发展因素 | 人均GDP | GDP总量/总人口 | 经济发展水平 |
农民人均纯收入 | 来自统计年鉴数据 | 农民收入水平 | |
二三产业占比 | 二三产业产值/GDP总量 | 产业结构水平 | |
城镇建设因素 | 地均固定资产投资 | 固定资产投资总额/区域土地面积 | 资产投入力度 |
城镇化率 | 城镇人口/总人口 | 城镇发展程度 | |
人口密度 | 总人口/区域土地面积 | 人口承载能力 | |
城市行政等级 | 县、县级市、地级市区、省会城市和直辖市分别赋值1、2、3、4、5 | 城镇建设水平 |
Tab.3
Fitting parameters and models of variogram of cultivated land use form in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region"
指标 | 参数 | 1990年 | 2000年 | 2010年 | 2015年 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
变程 | a | 628800 | 718500 | 577500 | 255600 |
块金值 | C0 | 0.00001 | 0.00051 | 0.00013 | 0.00046 |
基台值 | C0+C | 0.00523 | 0.00680 | 0.00682 | 0.00639 |
块金系数 | C0/(C0+C) | 0.998 | 0.925 | 0.981 | 0.928 |
拟合模型 | 指数 | 指数 | 指数 | 指数 | |
决定系数 | R2 | 0.993 | 0.986 | 0.993 | 0.966 |
Tab.4
Variation dimension of cultivated land use form in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region"
年份 | 全方位 | 南—北(0°) | 东北—西南(45°) | 东—西(90°) | 东南—西北(135°) | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
D | R2 | D | R2 | D | R2 | D | R2 | D | R2 | |
1990 | 1.567 | 0.940 | 1.530 | 0.988 | 1.614 | 0.975 | 1.526 | 0.880 | 1.506 | 0.674 |
2000 | 1.700 | 0.981 | 1.680 | 0.851 | 1.603 | 0.926 | 1.771 | 0.776 | 1.640 | 0.730 |
2010 | 1.630 | 0.971 | 1.580 | 0.985 | 1.639 | 0.968 | 1.689 | 0.910 | 1.599 | 0.614 |
2015 | 1.767 | 0.905 | 1.721 | 0.920 | 1.778 | 0.914 | 1.735 | 0.945 | 1.790 | 0.498 |
Tab.5
Spatial regression analysis of cultivated land use transition and driving factors in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region"
影响因子 | 1990年 | 2000年 | 2010年 | 2015年 | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OLS | SLM | SEM | OLS | SLM | SEM | OLS | SLM | SEM | OLS | SLM | SEM | ||||
高程 | -0.182*** | -0.056*** | -0.119*** | -0.094*** | -0.016 | -0.100*** | -0.143*** | -0.038*** | -0.140*** | -0.144*** | -0.084*** | -0.151*** | |||
年降水量 | -0.192*** | -0.086*** | -0.152*** | 0.0003 | -0.012 | -0.075 | -0.038** | -0.017* | -0.064* | -0.169*** | -0.111*** | -0.168*** | |||
距主要河流距离 | -0.051*** | -0.028** | -0.035* | -0.044* | -0.032** | -0.052** | -0.039** | -0.022* | -0.024 | -0.084*** | -0.060*** | -0.064** | |||
人均GDP | 0.078** | 0.105*** | 0.107*** | 0.043 | 0.047 | 0.080** | -0.149 | 0.005 | 0.043 | 0.105 | 0.156* | 0.169* | |||
农民人均纯收入 | -0.0543* | 0.002 | 0.025 | 0.009 | 0.016 | 0.010 | 0.019 | 0.047 | 0.006 | 0.099*** | 0.099*** | 0.090*** | |||
二三产业占比 | -0.010 | -0.028** | -0.027** | -0.094*** | -0.080*** | -0.065*** | -0.092*** | -0.078*** | -0.044*** | -0.131*** | -0.117*** | -0.103*** | |||
地均固定资产投资 | -0.019 | -0.069** | -0.084*** | -0.275** | -0.282*** | -0.326*** | 0.122 | -0.063 | -0.114* | -0.081 | -0.133 | -0.149 | |||
城镇化率 | -0.051** | -0.046*** | -0.048*** | -0.041 | -0.041* | -0.057** | -0.020 | -0.023 | -0.051*** | -0.074** | -0.069** | -0.776** | |||
人口密度 | -0.089* | -0.051 | -0.028 | 0.160 | 0.181*** | 0.218*** | -0.182 | -0.0167 | 0.035 | 0.082 | 0.131* | 0.147** | |||
城市行政等级 | 0.010 | 0.008 | 0.003 | -0.023 | 0.0003 | 0.006 | -0.036 | -0.013 | 0.007 | -0.076** | -0.072** | -0.068** | |||
W-Y | 0.764*** | 0.779*** | 0.796*** | 0.422*** | |||||||||||
Lambda | 0.835*** | 0.838*** | 0.872*** | 0.472*** | |||||||||||
R2 | 0.436 | 0.739 | 0.773 | 0.358 | 0.713 | 0.731 | 0.548 | 0.808 | 0.820 | 0.510 | 0.577 | 0.584 | |||
LogL | 276.7 | 319.9 | 327.5 | 242.1 | 292.6 | 294.7 | 265.8 | 319.8 | 320.3 | 241.5 | 250.1 | 250.6 | |||
AIC | -531.4 | -615.9 | -633.0 | -462.2 | -561.2 | -567.4 | -509.7 | -615.5 | -618.6 | -461.1 | -476.1 | -479.1 | |||
SC | -497.8 | -579.2 | -599.4 | -428.6 | -524.6 | -533.7 | -476.1 | -578.9 | -594.9 | -427.5 | -439.4 | -445.6 |
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