“一带一路”背景下的中国与巴基斯坦的贸易关系演进及其影响因素

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2020.11.001

Abstract

Abstract:

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is the flagship project of the Belt and Road Initiative, and "unimpeded trade" is one of the priorities of cooperation in the Belt and Road Initiative proposed by China. It is important to examine the spatio-temporal characteristics of international trade between China and Pakistan for promoting economic prosperity and regional cooperation along CPEC. This study examined the spatio-temporal characteristics of trade cooperation between China and Pakistan, and analyzed its influencing factors using a stochastic frontier gravity model. The findings of this research are as follows: First, the scale of China-Pakistan trade is small but growing fast; China has trade surplus that continues to increase, and Pakistan shows low status in the global trade network of China; in China-Pakistan trade, China mainly exports capital-intensive products such as machinery and electrical equipment, and imports textile raw materials, textile products and other primary products, and labor-intensive products. Second, significant spatial differences exist in the trade scale and commodity structure of provinces in China with Pakistan; notably, eastern coastal provinces in China have significant advantages in terms of trade scale with Pakistan, while western provinces, except Xinjiang, have limited trade with Pakistan. Third, most of China's provinces have undergone significant changes in the structure of trade commodities, among which provinces with diverse commodity structures, such as Xinjiang and Shandong, have relatively little change. Fourth, higher economic development level and larger market size of provinces in China significantly promote China-Pakistan trade; shipping distance shows negative impact on China-Pakistan trade; shared border provides good conditions for cross-border trade; the construction of railway and shipping ports has shown a significant promoting effect on trade. Fifth, great trade potential still exists between provinces in China and Pakistan, especially in Inner Mongolia, Yunnan, Guangxi, and Shaanxi provinces and autonomous regions.

Key words: Belt and Road Initiative, China-Pakistan trade cooperation, stochastic frontier gravity model, potential trade scale

SONG Zhouying, ZHU Qiaoling. Development of trade between China’s provinces and Pakistan and influencing factors under the background of the Belt and Road Initiative[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2020, 39(11): 1785-1797.

Figures/Tables 8

Fig.1

Fig.2

Fig.3

Fig.4

Tab.1

Major influencing factors of the volume of trade between provinces in China and Pakistan"

	解释变量	变量含义	单位	数据来源	预期影响方向
核心变量	$PGD P ct$	表示t时期中国c省(区市)人均GDP,反映该省(区市)的经济发展程度和需求水平	美元	中国统计年鉴	+
	$PGD P p t$	表示t时期巴基斯坦人均GDP,反映其经济发展程度和需求水平	美元	世界银行	+
	$PO P ct$	表示t时期中国c省(区市)的人口规模,反映该省(区市)的市场规模	人	中国统计年鉴	+
	$PO P p t$	表示t时期巴基斯坦的人口规模,反映其市场规模	人	世界银行	+
	$Dis t c p$	表示c省(区市)和巴基斯坦间的运输距离,反映贸易运输的成本	km	freemaptools.com	-
	$Borde r c p$	表示c省(区市)和巴基斯坦是否有领土接壤,虚拟变量,反映两地进行口岸贸易的在地理条件上的可能性	—	标准地图服务系统	+
	$dPGD P p ct$	表示t时期c省(区市)和巴基斯坦人均GDP的差额,反映两地的人均收入水平和购买能力	美元	中国统计年鉴,世界银行	-
	$FD I ct$	表示t时期c省(区市)实际利用的外商直接投资额,反映外资引进对贸易额的影响	万美元	各省(区市)统计年鉴	+
	$FT D ct$	表示t时期c省(区市)的对外贸易依存度,反映了对外贸易在该省(区市)经济中的重要程度	—	中国统计年鉴	+
贸易非效率项	$Shi p ct$	表示t时期c省(区市)一级水运口岸个数,反映该省(区市)的贸易便利化水平	—	中国口岸年鉴	-
	$Ai r ct$	表示t时期c省(区市)一级航空口岸个数,反映该省(区市)的贸易便利化水平	—	中国口岸年鉴	-
	$Rai l ct$	表示t时期c省(区市)一级铁路口岸个数,反映该省(区市)的贸易便利化水平	—	中国口岸年鉴	-
	$Roa d ct$	表示t时期c省(区市)一级公路口岸个数,反映该省(区市)的贸易便利化水平	—	中国口岸年鉴	-
	$BR I t$	表示t时期“一带一路”倡议是否提出,虚拟变量,反映中巴区域一体化水平	—	中国政府网	-

Tab.1

Tab.2

Tab.3

Estimation results using the stochastic frontier gravity model"

		模型1		模型2
		系数	t统计量	系数	t统计量
随机前沿函数	常数项	-12.92	-0.58	-7.55	-0.34
	$lnPGD P ct$	5.49^***	3.34	6.48^***	4.31
	$lnPGD P p t$	-2.34^*	-1.82	-2.70^**	-2.12
	$lnPO P ct$	1.37^***	13.29	1.39^***	21.21
	$lnPO P p t$	1.44	0.49	1.02	0.34
	$lnDis t p c$	-1.23^**	-2.27	-1.45^***	-2.84
	$Borde r p c$	1.56^***	5.53	1.58^***	5.76
	$lndPGD P p ct$	-2.67^**	-2.06	-3.27^***	-2.67
	$lnFD I ct$	0.01	0.23	—	—
	$FT D ct$	0.36	1.36	—	—
贸易非效率函数	常数项	-0.46	-0.51	-0.15	-0.20
	$Shi p ct$	-0.09	-1.56	-0.08^*	-1.71
	$Ai r ct$	0.26	1.55	0.27^*	1.81
	$Rai l ct$	-0.29	-1.06	-0.26	-1.01
	$Roa d ct$	0.16^**	2.06	0.14^**	2.06
	$BR I t$	-0.12	-0.31	-0.03	-0.09
统计检验	$σ 2$	1.39^***	2.63	1.23^***	2.84
	γ	0.85^***	14.17	0.86^***	15.09
	对数似然值	-316.10		-317.04
	LR检验	33.52		47.92

Tab.3

Fig.5

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Development of trade between China’s provinces and Pakistan and influencing factors under the background of the Belt and Road Initiative

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