城市韧性研究进展与展望

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2020.10.011

Abstract

Abstract:

Under the background of global environmental change and urbanization, various risks and uncertainties have posed an important obstacle on urban security and urban sustainable development. As a potential new approach of urban risk management, urban resilience can improve the ability to resist, dissolve, and adapt when facing risks and uncertainties, and expound the adaptive scheme of risks in the process of rapid urbanization. Urban resilience has been a new topic in geography and related disciplines. Based on the origin and concept of urban resilience research, from the perspective of the impact of various factors (human, environmental, disaster) on urban resilience, this study constructed a theoretical framework of urban resilience, including evaluation and scenario simulation, and discussed the status of urban resilience research, pointing out that there are still many weak links in the theoretical framework, mechanism, practical application, and difference analysis of urban resilience research. Finally, the key directions of urban resilience research were also discussed. The theoretical framework should be used as a guide to promote multi-objective, multi-level, and multi-perspective systematic evaluation research. With the analysis of mechanism as support, studies should aim to achieve a new breakthrough in process simulation of urban resilience and decision making and early warning. Oriented by empirical research, studies should continue to strengthen the application model of multidisciplinary integration and exploration of urban resilience. Considering regional differences, further work should try to achieve a change in urban planning from the unified "one policy for multi-city" approach to the flexible "one policy for one city" approach.

Key words: urban resilience, urban sustainable development, global environmental change, systematic feedback, resilience transformation, research review

ZHAO Ruidong, FANG Chuanglin, LIU Haimeng. Progress and prospect of urban resilience research[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2020, 39(10): 1717-1731.

Figures/Tables 5

Tab.1

Fig.1

Fig.2

Tab.2

Assessment methods of urban resilience"

评价方法	基本原理	优点	不足
综合指数法	对选取的指标数据进行标准化处理,并利用综合加权求和、熵权系数、AHP、TOPSIS等确定指标权重,进而综合评价城市韧性程度	计算过程相对简单,且容易操作	在指标选取与权重确定过程中存在一定的主观性,忽视要素间关系
函数模型法	在韧性概念的基础上,构建由暴露—敏感性和应对能力组成的函数模型,用暴露—敏感性与应对能力的比值计算韧性指数	明确了构成要素间的相互作用,能解释韧性的成因	对韧性概念及构成要素间的相互关系还未统一观点
阈值法	阈值是系统的边界或不同状态的连接点,通过CENTURY、GAP等模型可以测算出生态系统某些关键节点或状态转化时间	多适用于生态系统、社会—生态系统能力的测算	忽略了有机体的个体变异性,限制了其应用
社会网络模型	网络结构韧性通常是城市网络结构对区域应对冲击并恢复、保持或改善原有系统特征和关键功能的影响力,借助Gephi对网络结构韧性进行评价	具有较强反映各利益人间及各组成系统间联系强度的能力	网络结构不能反映空间模拟情形,存在着获取数据、信息误差、联系不真实等缺陷
韧性成熟度模型(RMM)	城市经历的5个连续阶段(开始、中级、高级、强健、更高级),从城市在韧性建设过程中的最初开始,到实现卓越的韧性能力为止,提出相应策略	该模型适合于通过系统迭代过程及复杂问题相关的解释	在空间模拟上相对不足,只针对特定城市或某个复杂系统
情景分析法	由于韧性被假设为社会—生态的属性而难以测算,情景分析是设定一个或多个变化背景,来模拟其对城市各个系统结构、功能等影响的变化情形及路径选择	计算不同假设情景下多个因素同时作用的结果,进行空间模拟	主要针对如何降低某个扰动风险来设定的,对系统韧性和适应性等问题则关注不够
图层叠置法	根据城市韧性的构成要素分别制图,并将其进行空间叠置,典型的如区域物理韧性和社会韧性的图层叠置,形成地方整体韧性	实现了韧性评价结果的地图可视化和直观表达	评价结果难以反映不同要素对整体韧性的影响程度

Tab.2

Tab.3

Summary and classification of evaluation indicators of urban resilience"

维度	具体指标	Joerin等^[61]	Cutter等^[62]	Hudec等^[63]	Zheng等^[66]	杨莹等^[64]	白立敏等^[65]
生态	人均公园绿地面积		√		√		√
	园林绿地面积	√	√				√
	生态系统服务	√
	空气质量	√			√	√
	环保占财政支出的比重				√
	建成区用地面积比例					√	√
	建成区绿化覆盖率				√	√
	每平方公里SO₂排放量						√
	城镇生活污水处理率						√
	自然灾害频率	√
	地形起伏度	√				√
经济	人均GDP	√	√	√	√		√
	第三产业占GDP 的比重		√				√
	产业高级化系数			√
	城市化率				√
	科学支出占GDP 的比重						√
	实际利用外资金额						√
	城镇登记失业人口	√					√
	人均财政支出	√		√	√
	人均储蓄存款额	√		√
	第三产业企业总资产		√			√
	就业率		√
	自住房屋比重		√			√
	气候灾害造成的经济损失比				√
社会	城镇人均可支配收入	√	√	√	√		√
	医疗保险覆盖率			√	√
	在岗职工平均工资						√
	第三产业就业人员比重					√	√
	每万人医院病床张数		√	√			√
	每万人在校大学生数	√	√	√		√	√
	社保占财政支出比重	√	√		√		√
	食品供应能力		√
	城市人口密度	√			√	√
	公共管理与社会组织人员占比				√	√	√
	老龄化率		√		√	√
	最低生活水平的人口比例			√	√
制度	单位负责人比例					√
	政府机构密度	√	√		√	√
	非农人口比例		√			√
	城市卫生站密度					√
	每千人拥有卫生人员数		√			√
	危机管理框架有效性	√			√
	防灾减灾经验与培训	√	√		√
	城市治理能力	√	√	√	√
	防灾支出		√		√
	灾害保险参保率		√
设施	人均道路面积	√	√	√		√	√
	排水管道密度		√	√			√
	燃气普及率		√				√
	每万人拥有公共汽车数						√
	住房设施用地	√	√	√
	土地利用混合度	√
	移动电话户数					√	√
	国际互联网用户数		√	√	√	√	√
	物资供应保障度	√	√	√		√
	防灾减灾设施完善度		√	√		√
	人均公共卫生设施			√	√	√

Tab.3

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研究视角	概念定义	研究学者或机构
经济学	区域经济经历外生冲击后能够回到冲击前水平的增长速率,经济被锁定为一个低水平的平衡之后快速转换至一个“更好的平衡”的能力	Hill等^[33]
社会学	城市作为可持续的物质系统和人类社区的结合体,而物质系统的规划应该通过人类社区的建设发挥作用	Godschalk^[34]
灾害学	由基础设施韧性、制度韧性、经济韧性和社会韧性4部分组成,其中基础设施韧性很关键,同时也涵盖生命线工程的畅通和城市社区的应急反应能力	Jha等^[35]
地理学	指城市系统及其所有组成部分的社会—生态和社会—技术网络在时间和空间尺度上受到干扰时保持或快速恢复所需功能、适应变化以及快速转换限制当前或未来适应能力的系统能力	Sara等^[36]
城市规划学	系统和区域通过合理准备、缓冲和应对不确定性扰动,实现公共安全、社会秩序和经济建设等正常运行的能力	邵亦文等^[7]
生态学	城市系统消化、吸收外来干扰并能保持原来结构、维持关键功能的能力	Resilience Alliance^[37]
城市规划学	指增加城市应对自然和人为危机影响的韧性,确保城市能够抵御灾难性事件并迅速恢复的能力	UN-Habitat^[2]
地理学	城市中的个人、社区、机构、企业和系统,在各种慢性压力和急性冲击下存续、适应、发展的能力	Rockefeller Foundation^[38]

Progress and prospect of urban resilience research

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