PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY ›› 2020, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (10): 1687-1697.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2020.10.008
• Articles • Previous Articles Next Articles
HAN Jing1(), RUI Yang1,*(
), YANG Kun1, LIU Wei2, MA Teng1
Received:
2019-10-24
Revised:
2020-01-19
Online:
2020-10-28
Published:
2020-12-28
Contact:
RUI Yang
E-mail:hjxbdx@163.com;ruiyang@nwu.edu.cn
Supported by:
HAN Jing, RUI Yang, YANG Kun, LIU Wei, MA Teng. Quantitative attribution of national key town layout based on geodetector and the geographically weighted regression model[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2020, 39(10): 1687-1697.
Tab.1
Results of single variable difference-in-difference analysis"
样本 | 变量 | 重点镇认定前 | 重点镇认定后 | DIFF(FU)-DIFF(BL) | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
处理组 | 控制组 | 差分值 | 处理组 | 控制组 | 差分值 | ||||
2004年公布的全国重点镇 | GDP | 76.10 | 38.24 | 37.86** | 290.45 | 149.31 | 141.14*** | 103.28 | |
非农就业率 | 47.21 | 25.80 | 21.41* | 84.61 | 41.14 | 43.47** | 22.06 | ||
2014年增补调整后 的全国重点镇 | GDP | 39.82 | 2.09 | 37.73* | 30.5 | 26.07 | 4.43* | -33.30 | |
非农就业率 | 71.06 | 53.78 | 17.27** | 70.03 | 51.23 | 18.80** | 1.53 |
Tab.2
Description of variables and measurements"
影响因子维度 | 自变量名称 | 计算方法 | 单位 | 预期作用方向 |
---|---|---|---|---|
政策 | 县际均衡政策 | 统计年鉴获取 | 个 | + |
区域倾斜政策 | 否=0;是=1 | — | + | |
地理 | 海拔高度 | ArcGIS栅格统计 | m | - |
地形起伏度 | ArcGIS栅格统计 | m | - | |
到省会城市中心距离 | ArcGIS邻域分析 | km | - | |
公路网密度 | ArcGIS密度分析 | km/km2 | + | |
经济 | 人均GDP | 统计年鉴获取 | 万元 | + |
二三产业产值比重 | 二三产业产值/GDP | % | + | |
地方一般预算收入 | 统计年鉴获取 | 万元 | + | |
全社会固定资产投资 | 统计年鉴获取 | 万元 | + | |
社会 | 人口密度 | 常住人口/行政区面积 | 人/km2 | + |
非农化率 | 从事二三产业人口/总人口 | % | + | |
常住人口城镇化率 | 常住人口/总人口 | % | + |
Tab.3
Geographical detection results of influencing factors"
影响因子维度 | 自变量名称 | P值 | 显著性水平 | q值 | 解释力排序 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
政策 | 县际均衡政策 | <0.001 | 0.01 | 0.506 | 1 |
区域倾斜政策 | <0.001 | 0.01 | 0.038 | 4 | |
地理 | 海拔高度 | <0.001 | 0.01 | 0.082 | 3 |
地形起伏度 | 0.101 | — | 0.061 | ||
到省会城市中心距离 | 0.502 | — | 0.015 | ||
公路网密度 | 0.004 | 0.01 | 0.139 | 2 | |
经济 | 人均GDP | 0.945 | — | 0.006 | |
二三产业产值比重 | 0.325 | — | 0.027 | ||
地方一般预算收入 | 0.993 | — | 0.004 | ||
全社会固定资产投资 | 0.992 | — | 0.003 | ||
社会 | 人口密度 | 0.382 | — | 0.001 | |
非农化率 | 0.464 | — | 0.058 | ||
常住人口城镇化率 | 0.093 | 0.1 | 0.028 | 5 |
Tab.4
Interaction detection results of influencing factors"
q=A∩B | A+B | 比较结果 | 交互作用产生效应的类型 | 交互作用后的解释力排序 |
---|---|---|---|---|
S1∩S2=0.536 | S1(0.506)+S2(0.038)=0.544 | A+B>q>A, B | 双因子增强 | 3 |
S1∩S3=0.629 | S1(0.506)+S3(0.082)=0.588 | q>A+B | 非线性增强 | 2 |
S1∩S4=0.646 | S1(0.506)+S4(0.139)=0.645 | q>A+B | 非线性增强 | 1 |
S1∩S5=0.527 | S1(0.506)+S5(0.028)=0.534 | A+B>q>A, B | 双因子增强 | 4 |
S2∩S3=0.096 | S2(0.038)+S3(0.082)=0.120 | A+B>q>A, B | 双因子增强 | 9 |
S2∩S4=0.184 | S2(0.038)+S4(0.139)=0.177 | q>A+B | 非线性增强 | 8 |
S2∩S5=0.060 | S2(0.038)+S5(0.028)=0.066 | A+B>q>A, B | 双因子增强 | 10 |
S3∩S4=0.278 | S3(0.082)+S4(0.139)=0.221 | q>A+B | 非线性增强 | 5 |
S3∩S5=0.197 | S3(0.082)+S5(0.028)=0.110 | q>A+B | 非线性增强 | 7 |
S4∩S5=0.252 | S4(0.139)+S5(0.028)=0.167 | q>A+B | 非线性增强 | 6 |
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