基于时空临近重复效应的犯罪热点特征及成因分析——以北京市抢劫案件为例

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2020.05.009

Abstract

Abstract:

As a significant spatiotemporal characteristic of crimes, repeat and near repeat pattern has received much interest in criminology research. The purpose of this study was to explore the formation process and features of crime hotspots by using near repeat principle. Robbery cases in six districts of Beijing inner city from 2012 to 2014 were used to examine the extent to which repeats and near repeats spatially intersect robbery hotspots. All the case chains within crime hotspots satisfying repeat and near repeat principle were screened out. From this, by dividing the case characteristics into criminal factors and environmental factors, the characteristics of case chains were analyzed to describe the features and formation of hotspots. The results suggest that there were three main crime hotspots in the six districts of Beijing inner city, namely "a", "b", "c", and most of the cases located within the hotspots were repeats and near repeats. The hotspot "a" was located in Shuangjing and Jinsong, and the hotspot "c" was located in Dahongmen Bridge. The characteristics of the criminal factors of these two hotspots were more consistent than that of the environmental factors, which indicates that the formation of the hotspots were more likely to originate from the repeated crimes committed in the area by criminals. The hotspot "b" was located in Fenzhongsi area by the southeastern third ring road. The characteristics of the environmental factors of this hotspot were more consistent than that of the criminal factors, which indicates that the formation of the hotspot was more likely to originate from different criminals committing crimes in this area. The research findings presented in this article can aid decision making on crime prevention and detection in policing.

Key words: near repeat principle, crime hotspot, Simpson index, case chain, Beijing

GUO Yaqi, CHEN Peng. Formation and feature analyses of crime hotspots using near repeat principle: A case study of robbery in Beijing[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2020, 39(5): 804-814.

Figures/Tables 10

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References 36

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空间间隔/m	时间间隔/d
空间间隔/m	(0, 7]	(8, 14]	(15, 21]	(22, 28]	(29, 35]	(36, 42]	(43, 49]	>49
同一地点 (1, 1000] (1001, 2000] (2001, 3000] (3001, 4000] (4001, 5000] >5000	182 59 42 70 106 98 10723	46 23 39 89 81 121 11182	43 32 42 50 63 87 11291	33 11 45 59 73 95 11114	42 19 33 58 98 104 11011	32 19 53 62 79 90 11184	36 33 59 59 69 78 10852	2351 989 2691 3918 5349 6260 772976

空间间隔/m	时间间隔/d
空间间隔/m	(0, 7]	(8, 14]	(15, 21]	(22, 28]	(29, 35]	(36, 42]	(43, 49]	>49
同一地点 (1, 1000] (1001, 2000] (2001, 3000] (3001, 4000] (4001, 5000] >5000	5.11^ 3.87^ 1.09 1.24^* 1.40^** 1.10 0.98	1.25 1.47^* 0.98 1.54^* 1.03 1.32^** 0.99	1.17 2.00^** 1.06 0.86 0.80 0.95 1.00	0.92 0.70 1.14 1.03 0.94 1.04 1.00	1.17 1.23 0.84 1.02 1.27^* 1.15 1.00	0.87 1.21 1.33^* 1.08 1.01 0.99 1.00	1.02 2.19^** 1.54^* 1.05 0.91 0.88 1.00	0.94 0.92 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 1.00^*

统计项	链中案件数量
统计项	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11
时间重复案件链数量/条时空临近重复案件链数量/条案件链数量总计/条在所有案件链中占比/%	62 52 114 60.6	8 14 22 11.7	6 12 18 9.6	1 16 17 9.0	0 16 16 8.5	0 0 0 0	0 0 0 0	0 0 0 0	0 0 0 0	1 0 1 0.5

案件因素类型	案件特征类型	案件特征子类
犯罪人因素	发案时间	凌晨/早晨/上午/中午/下午/晚上
犯罪人因素	作案手段	踢打/言语胁迫/扼颈/持锐器/仗势胁迫/露械胁迫/强拿硬要/持钝器/搜身
环境因素	发案处所	宾馆/高层楼房/商业区/居民小区/网吧/普通楼房/楼群/贸易市场/一般公路/乡村公路/广场/结合部/出租屋/树林/商店/建筑工地/平房/街巷
	发案部位	客房/电梯间/路旁/楼道/胡同/卧室/河边/地下室/街心公园/门前/出租房屋/工地料场/楼口/路口/车厢
	被抢物品类型	卡/电子产品/钱/包/首饰/日用品/证件/车/钥匙/衣物

热点编号	统计指标	犯罪人因素		环境因素
热点编号	统计指标	发案时间	作案手段	发案处所	发案部位	被抢物品类型
“a”	最大值最小值平均值标准差	1.000 0 0.648 0.431	1.000 0 0.444 0.435	1.000 0 0.074 0.244	0.167 0 0.019 0.054	1.000 0 0.148 0.317
“b”	最大值最小值平均值标准差	1.000 0 0.287 0.196	0.600 0 0.146 0.136	0.600 0 0.085 0.089	1.000 0 0.347 0.192	1.000 0 0.447 0.269
“c”	最大值最小值平均值标准差	1.000 0 0.800 0.443	1.000 0 0.333 0.365	0.333 0 0.067 0.139	0 0 0 0	1.000 0 0.200 0.400

Formation and feature analyses of crime hotspots using near repeat principle: A case study of robbery in Beijing

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