“国际友城”的入境游效应及其时空异质性研究

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2019.12.007

Abstract

Abstract:

In recent years, cross-research has become the mainstream paradigm of tourism study in China and internationally. The study of inbound tourism has always been the focus and hotspot of tourism cross-research. International sister-city relationship is an important urban diplomatic relationship. Exploring the influence of international sister-city relationship on inbound tourism and its spatiotemporal heterogeneity is helpful for developing the driving factors of inbound tourism. In this study, international sister-city relationship (city diplomacy) is incorporated into the model of influencing factors of city inbound tourism. Based on the panel data of 60 typical cities in China from 1973 to 2017, this study used the regression method of instrumental variables (2SLS) to test whether the establishment of international sister-city relationship and the accumulated numbers of international sister cities significantly promote the growth of the scale of inbound foreign tourists in cities, and whether the growth shows spatial heterogeneity due to the locational difference of cities. The research findings show that: 1) The establishment of a city's international sister-city relationship significantly increased the size of the city's foreign tourist reception. On average, cities with international sister cities receive about 150%-160% more foreign tourists than those without international sister cities. 2) With the increase of the cumulative number of international sister cities established by cities, the positive promotional effect on the reception scale of foreign tourists reached 3.6%-3.9% on average. 3) There is a significant regional difference in the promotion of establishment of international sister cities and the effect of international sister cities on the scale of city foreign tourists. Among the 60 cities, the spatial heterogeneity of central and western cities is stronger than that of eastern and northeastern cities, which is mainly due to the differences in the time of establishing international sister-city relations and the frequency of exchanges and cooperation between cities in different regions. 4) Theoretically, when the accumulated count of international sister cities established by a city reaches 50 pairs, the promotional effect of increasing the number of international sister cities on the scale of foreign tourists will no longer be obvious. The research results not only expand the scope of traditional inbound tourism research, but also enrich the theory of inbound tourism driving force, which provide a theoretical basis for cities in the new era to promote the growth of foreign tourists by virtue of the international sister-city relationship.

Key words: sister cities, inbound tourism, instrumental variable regression, effect, spatiotemporal heterogeneity

WANG Yahui, QUAN Hua, WANG Yali. Effect of international sister city on inbound tourism and its spatiotemporal heterogeneity[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2019, 38(12): 1903-1916.

Figures/Tables 6

Tab.1

Distribution of 60 typical cities in China and their international sister cities (1973-2017)"

序号	城市	友城数/对	所属省(自治区、直辖市)	区域	序号	城市	友城数/对	所属省(自治区、直辖市)	区域
1	南京	16	江苏	东部	31	黄山	6	安徽	中部
2	连云港	8	江苏	东部	32	合肥	11	安徽	中部
3	南通	17	江苏	东部	33	南昌	13	江西	中部
4	苏州	35	江苏	东部	34	九江	13	江西	中部
5	无锡	36	江苏	东部	35	郑州	12	河南	中部
6	济南	24	山东	东部	36	洛阳	4	河南	中部
7	青岛	25	山东	东部	37	太原	10	山西	中部
8	烟台	9	山东	东部	38	大同	2	山西	中部
9	威海	10	山东	东部	39	武汉	25	湖北	中部
10	广州	35	广东	东部	40	长沙	11	湖南	中部
11	深圳	22	广东	东部	41	成都	31	四川	西部
12	珠海	13	广东	东部	42	西安	29	陕西	西部
13	汕头	4	广东	东部	43	昆明	22	云南	西部
14	湛江	5	广东	东部	44	兰州	13	甘肃	西部
15	中山	5	广东	东部	45	乌鲁木齐	12	新疆	西部
16	杭州	30	浙江	东部	46	呼和浩特	5	内蒙古	西部
17	宁波	11	浙江	东部	47	重庆	37	重庆	西部
18	温州	7	浙江	东部	48	银川	11	宁夏	西部
19	福州	13	福建	东部	49	西宁	8	青海	西部
20	厦门	17	福建	东部	50	贵阳	3	贵州	西部
21	泉州	8	福建	东部	51	拉萨	5	西藏	西部
22	漳州	6	福建	东部	52	南宁	15	广西	西部
23	海口	8	海南	东部	53	桂林	7	广西	西部
24	三亚	14	海南	东部	54	北海	11	广西	西部
25	北京	71	北京	东部	55	沈阳	18	辽宁	东北
26	天津	27	天津	东部	56	大连	11	辽宁	东北
27	上海	77	上海	东部	57	长春	20	吉林	东北
28	石家庄	8	河北	东部	58	吉林	7	吉林	东北
29	秦皇岛	4	河北	东部	59	延吉	2	吉林	东北
30	承德	4	河北	东部	60	哈尔滨	36	黑龙江	东北

Tab.1

Tab.2

Tab.3

Tab.4

Tab.5

Tab.6

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变量	观测值数	均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
入境外国游客数(Y_kt,人次)	1754	335778.6	686746.2	447	6712100
城市缔结的国际友城累计数(IFC_kt,对)	2700	5.8470	8.1103	0	77
城市经济发展水平(GDP_kt,万元)	2235	1.7×10⁷	3.3×10⁷	19638	3.06×10⁸
人民币兑美元汇率(EXR_t,元/美元)	2399	5.8402	2.3409	1.5500	8.6187
城市旅游资源禀赋(HER_kt)	2700	0.2003	0.6834	0	7
城市旅游接待设施(FAC_kt,间)	380	24563.06	26771.14	477	134000
城市对外开放度(OPE_kt)	1891	0.4722	0.7086	0.0002	6.8389

变量	IPS检验			Choi检验
变量	检验统计量	P值	平稳性	检验统计量	P值	平稳性
国际友城累计数	-1.1276	0.0298	平稳	142.3407	0.0150	平稳
入境外国游客数	-1.1973	0.0486	平稳	156.4630	0.0142	平稳

变量	相关性	入境外国游客数	国际友城累计数
入境外国游客数	Pearson相关性	1	0.635^***
	显著性(单侧)	—	<0.001
	观测值数(N)	1056	1059
国际友城累计数	Pearson相关性	0.635^***	1
	显著性(单侧)	0.000	—
	观测值数(N)	1056	1059

检验方法	检验统计量		P值		结论
检验方法	有无国际友城	国际友城累计数	有无国际友城	国际友城累计数	结论
豪斯曼(Hausman)检验	Chi2(1)=15.06	Chi2(5)=21.42	0.0001	0.0007	内生变量
杜宾(Durbin)检验	Chi2(1)=15.15	Chi2(1)=18.58	0.0001	<0.0001	内生变量
杜宾-吴-豪斯曼检验	F(1,1496)=15.2	F(1,1438)=18.7	0.0001	<0.0001	内生变量

变量	模型1	模型2	模型3	模型4
有无国际友城(D_kt)	1.6158^***	1.5053^***	—	—
有无国际友城(D_kt)	(0.4861)	(0.4683)	—	—
城市缔结的国际友城累计数(IFC_kt)	—	—	0.0366^***	0.0394^***
城市缔结的国际友城累计数(IFC_kt)	—	—	(0.0050)	(0.0050)
城市经济发展水平(GDP_kt)	0.5585^***	0.5325^***	0.4712^***	0.4294^***
城市经济发展水平(GDP_kt)	(0.0408)	(0.0385)	(0.0359)	(0.0365)
人民币兑美元汇率(EXR_t)	-0.2145^***	-0.2036^***	-0.1924^***	-0.1813^***
人民币兑美元汇率(EXR_t)	(0.0441)	(0.0451)	(0.0386)	(0.0394)
城市签证便捷性(VIS_kt)	0.1426	0.2167	0.1805	0.1115
城市签证便捷性(VIS_kt)	(0.4675)	(0.4576)	(0.3779)	(0.3559)
城市旅游资源禀赋(HER_kt)	0.1434^***	0.1446^***	0.1253^***	0.1288^***
城市旅游资源禀赋(HER_kt)	(0.3269)	(0.0312)	(0.0305)	(0.0283)
城市旅游接待设施(FAC_kt)	0.5382^***	0.5674^***	0.4183^***	0.4312^***
城市旅游接待设施(FAC_kt)	(0.0622)	(0.0622)	(0.0659)	(0.0660)
城市对外开放度(OPE_kt)	0.2764^***	0.3229^***	0.2754^***	0.3302^***
城市对外开放度(OPE_kt)	(0.0419)	(0.0476)	(0.0389)	(0.0443)
城市国际知名度(INR_t)	0.3277^***	0.2468	1.3040^***	1.2635^***
城市国际知名度(INR_t)	(0.2171)	(0.2213)	(0.2101)	(0.2030)
城市所在区域为中部(ARE₁)	—	0.6072^***	—	0.6705^***
城市所在区域为中部(ARE₁)	—	(0.1345)	—	(0.1307)
城市所在区域为西部(ARE₂)	—	-0.0559	—	-0.0191
城市所在区域为西部(ARE₂)	—	(0.0990)	—	(0.0982)
城市所在区域为东北部(ARE₃)	—	0.3628^***	—	0.5839^***
城市所在区域为东北部(ARE₃)	—	(0.0936)	—	(0.0875)
截距项	-2.2686^**	-2.2228^**	1.3662^*	1.6592^**
截距项	(0.9143)	(0.9107)	(0.7959)	(0.8222)
R²	0.8099	0.8271	0.8229	0.8453
观测值	1608	1608	1608	1608

Effect of international sister city on inbound tourism and its spatiotemporal heterogeneity

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