中国出口贸易韧性空间差异性研究

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2019.10.011

Abstract

Abstract:

After the global financial crisis, the resilience of China's regional exports is reflected in three stages: resistance in the first stage of the crisis (2008-2009), resilience in the second stage of the crisis (2009-2011), and promotion in product structure transformation after the crisis. This study constructed a regional export trade resilience index at the regional-product level, and described the spatial differences of regional resilience and resilience after the financial crisis with regard to regional export trade volume and product structure. The results of the regional-product level econometric model show that the diversification of related industrial structure not only can enhance the resistance of regional products in the short run, but also can improve the resilience of regional products in the long run, and further promote the upgrading of regional product structure. Emergency tax policy can effectively alleviate the impact of crisis in the short term, but its impact is limited and does not last; regional products with high export proportion of foreign enterprises have little effect on the upgrading of regional product structure, but processing trade promotes the upgrading of regional product structure in the crisis.

Key words: regional resilience, financial crisis, export trade, spatial difference, structural upgrading, China

HE Canfei,XIA Xinming,LI Ming. Spatial difference and mechanisms of China’s export trade regional resilience[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2019, 38(10): 1558-1570.

Figures/Tables 9

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References 43

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解释变量	全国		东部		东北		中部		西部
解释变量	模型1	模型2	模型3	模型4	模型5	模型6	模型7	模型8	模型9	模型10
税收政策(危机前)	-4.10^***		-3.61^***		-7.47^***		-4.31^***		-2.44^*
税收政策(危机后)		3.94^***		3.16^**		-7.46^***		2.77^***		-2.39
产品加工贸易方式占比	4.92^**	3.17^**	0.64	0.36	-7.60^***	-7.11^***	-3.67^***	-2.16^***	14.06^***	14.28^***
产品外企出口占比	-2.47^***	-3.92^***	1.46	0.86	-4.66^***	-4.83^***	-9.40^***	-8.09^***	-6.08^***	-6.14^***
产品技术关联	6.46^***	1.67	1.79^***	-0.88	6.46^***	6.84^***	1.42	-0.70	-7.29^***	-7.21^***
产品进口额	-2.91	-7.44	-3.36	-4.62	3.67	3.47	0.60	-1.61	-2.38	-2.39
产品出口目的国数量	20.26^***	16.42^***	17.04^***	13.99^***	6.26^***	6.18^***	14.08^***	12.61^***	11.11^***	11.04^***
产品复杂度	9.67^***	9.46^***	9.07^***	8.83^***	0.70	0.66	-2.86^***	-2.68^***	6.38^***	6.67^*
区域变量	是	是	是	是	是	是	是	是	是	是
Pseudo R²	0.038	0.0396	0.0326	0.0412	0.034	0.0362	0.1244	0.1142	0.1218	0.1428

解释变量	全国	东部	东北	中部	西部
解释变量	模型1	模型2	模型3	模型4	模型5
税收政策(危机后)	0.8	-4.87^***	-2.03^*	-1.38	1.03
产品加工贸易方式占比	-2.66^**	-6.22^***	-2.69^**	0.41	4.92^***
产品外企出口占比	11.66^***	8.69^***	11.28^***	4.62^***	2.18^*
产品技术关联	10.87^***	8.26^***	7.32^***	7.66^***	2.27^*
产品进口额	10.97^***	13.17^***	4.68^***	3.12^**	-1.22
产品出口目的国数量	1.87^*	0.62^***	6.66^***	7.64^***	11.32^***
产品复杂度	-3.46^**	1.37	0.94	-4.21^***	-9.03^***
区域变量	是	是	是	是	是
Pseudo R²	0.0214	0.0343	0.0386	0.0392	0.0362

Spatial difference and mechanisms of China’s export trade regional resilience

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