国际贸易对地区劳动力技能升级的影响——基于中国大陆地区地级市的数据分析

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2019.10.007

Abstract

Abstract:

With the gradual disappearance of China's demographic dividend, skill upgrading is becoming increasingly prominent. Studies have shown that the integration of developing countries into the global production network system does not necessarily lead to the upgrading of the skills of the labor force. Therefore, this study examines the impact of international trade on the upgrading of labor skills, using the panel data of major prefecture-level cities in the mainland of China in 2005, 2010 and 2015 for analysis. The results show that the overall impact of import and export trade is not significant. Specifically, export trade has a restraining effect on the employment of highly-skilled labor force while the technology diffusion effect produced by import trade has not yet appeared. Further, with regard to regional industrial geographical pattern, international trade affects inter-regional flow of labor force with different levels of skill, and the effect of trade on skill upgrading varies across different locations and city size characteristics. Import trade in coastal cities and large cities significantly promotes the employment of highly-skilled labor force and brings about the upgrading of regional labor skills. By contrast, for inland regions and small cities, export trade negatively affects the highly-skilled labor force, which results in a decrease of regional labor skills.

Key words: international trade, labor force, skill upgrading, human capital, China

LI Shiyang,ZHU Huasheng,DING Yue. The impact of international trade on regional skill upgrading: Analysis of prefecture-level cities in the mainland of China[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2019, 38(10): 1514-1522.

Figures/Tables 5

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References 36

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变量名称	具体指标	指标说明
地方教育投入	人均教育支出(edu)(赵曼等, 2017)	在中国情境下,人力资本的提升需更多依靠地方政府财政投入;教育支出水平反映了地区政府对教育发展的支撑能力,将影响人力资本积累的效果
人力资本	每万人在校大学生数(hr)(杨仁发, 2013)	人力资本存量是地区劳动力技能发生升级的基础,选取每万人在校大学生数作为衡量人力资本的指标
技术进步	科技经费占财政支出比例(tech)(黄乾, 2009)	技术进步将会改变雇主对劳动力的需求定位,增加对技能型劳动力的需求。可以从投入和产出2个角度来衡量
技术进步	每万人专利申请数(patent)(黄乾, 2009)	技术进步将会改变雇主对劳动力的需求定位,增加对技能型劳动力的需求。可以从投入和产出2个角度来衡量
经济规模	人均地区生产总值(GDP)(余官胜等, 2013)	经济规模的扩大能同时增加高技能劳动和低技能劳动的就业,但对于增加高技能劳动就业的边际效应更大
企业属性	企业平均产值(scale)(Ferguson, 2010)	大企业比小企业更能获得规模经济的好处,更愿意也更能够为员工提供培训投入,有助于其实现技能升级
企业属性	外资企业占比(FE)(任志成, 2007)	外资企业具有引致人才的优势,同时能够通过高效率的人力资源开发能力,为劳动者提供新知识和新技能

变量	模型1	模型2
ln trade	-0.035^***	—
ln exp	—	-0.048^***
ln imp	—	0.002
ln edu	0.180^***	0.194^***
ln hr	0.209^***	0.210^***
ln tech	-0.039^*	-0.041^*
ln patent	0.015	0.018
ln GDP	0.306^***	0.316^***
ln scale	-0.006	-0.025
ln FE	0.101^***	0.098^***
loc	0.158^***	0.151^***
size	0.052^*	0.044
R²	0.751	0.754
Wald检验	1348.33^***	1362.43^***
N	458	456

变量	模型1				模型2
变量	沿海城市	内陆城市	大城市	小城市	沿海城市	内陆城市	大城市	小城市
ln trade	0.046^*	-0.047^***	0.007	-0.061^***	—	—	—	—
ln exp	—	—	—	—	-0.030	-0.040^**	-0.059^**	-0.056^***
ln imp	—	—	—	—	0.053^*	-0.011	0.049^**	-0.010
ln edu	0.219^***	0.126^***	0.298^***	0.158^***	0.224^***	0.142^***	0.321^***	0.179^***
ln hr	0.273^***	0.154^***	0.323^***	0.168^***	0.264^***	0.161^***	0.320^***	0.169^***
ln tech	0.018	-0.062^**	-0.002	-0.054^**	0.015	-0.067^**	-0.005	-0.060^**
ln patent	-0.054^*	0.041	0.040^**	-0.010	-0.038	0.042^***	0.052^***	-0.009
ln GDP	0.136	0.493^***	-0.094	0.382^***	0.168^*	0.491^***	-0.090	0.389^***
ln scale	0.054	-0.122^***	0.027	0.014	0.025	-0.137^***	-0.001	-0.013
ln FE	-0.042	0.147^***	0.090^***	0.046	-0.048	0.142^***	0.085^***	0.039
R²	0.814	0.725	0.891	0.663	0.814	0.728	0.895	0.669
Wald检验	863.81^***	636.70^***	1374.90^***	544.77^***	863.68^***	639.27^***	1420.91^***	543.10^***
N	207	251	177	281	207	249	177	279

The impact of international trade on regional skill upgrading: Analysis of prefecture-level cities in the mainland of China

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