新型职业农民对城市郊区耕地利用“大棚化”转型的影响——以南京市为例

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2019.09.003

Abstract

Abstract:

With the continuous development of agricultural commercialization in China, traditional uncovered farmlands have been gradually replaced, the area of plastic tunnels in the suburbs of big cities expands rapidly, and the transformation of agricultural land use to "plastic tunnels" has become more common. Along with this development, farmers in the suburbs of big cities have gradually changed from the traditional "self-sufficient" farmers to the market-oriented "new professional farmers". However, so far there has been little research on the role of new professional farmers in the transformation of agricultural land use in the suburbs of big cities. In order to analyze the influence of "new professional farmers" on the transformation of agricultural land use, based on the questionnaire survey primary data of 291 farmers in eight districts of Nanjing City in 2018 and secondary data, this study constructed a Logistic regression model from the perspective of new professional farmer influences and studied the impact of new professional farmers on the transformation of plastic tunnels on a micro scale. The results show that: 1) Compared with other types of farmers, new professional farmers are the fundamental driving factor for the transformation of suburban farmland use and can significantly promote the transformation of suburban farmland use towards plastic tunnels. Holding all other variables constant, the possibility of plastic tunnels cultivation of migrant professional farmers is about 4.7 times that of other types of farmers. 2) Age of the new professional farmers, years of farming, and scale of operation are important factors affecting the transformation of plastic tunnels. The older the farmers are, the less likely they are to convert to plant cropping in plastic tunnels; the longer the number of years of farming, and the larger the scale of operation, the greater the possibility of converting to the use of plastic tunnels. 3) For all farmers who participated in the survey, sales proportion, annual net profit per unit of agriculture production, and terrain factors have a significant positive effect on the transformation of plastic tunnels.

Key words: use of cultivated land, agrarian transition, new professional farmers, plastic tunnels, Nanjing City

YAN Menglu,WANG Baiyuan,ZHAO Xiaofeng,ZHONG Taiyang. Influence of commercialized production-oriented “new professional farmers” on the plastic tunnels transition: A case study in Nanjing City[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2019, 38(9): 1294-1304.

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References 44

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时段	玄武区	秦淮区	建邺区	鼓楼区	浦口区	栖霞区	雨花台区	江宁区	六合区	溧水区	高淳区
1995—2000年	0	0	0.20	0	0.15	1.14	0	0	0	0	0
2000—2005年	15.22	13.71	2.92	0.02	2.65	5.25	0.45	1.66	0.30	0.02	0.06
2005—2010年	12.83	7.20	0.41	0	6.07	4.59	0.68	8.23	8.38	2.67	4.68
2010—2015年	0	0	0	0.14	14.51	11.52	2.97	19.70	7.36	2.97	3.07

变量	变量名称	变量符号	变量说明（单位）	预期方向
被解释变量	是否大棚化	green	green=1,大棚化种植;green=0,非大棚化种植
解释变量	农民类型（新型职业农民）	npp	npp=1,是; npp=0,不是	+
	年龄	age	问卷调研数据(岁)	-
	性别	gender	男=1,女=0
	受教育程度	edu	1=小学以下,2=小学,3=初中,4=高中,5=本科及以上(包括大专)	+
	务农年数	agryear	问卷调研数据(a)	+
	经营规模	acreage	现种植土地面积(亩)	+
	销售占比	rate	销售面积/种植面积	+
	农业纯利润	profit	农业总利润/经营规模(万元/亩)	+
	地形因素	slope	1=平地,2=坡田,3=梯田	-

变量	样本数	平均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
是否大棚化	290	0.31	0.46	0	1
农民类型	291	0.31	0.46	0	1
年龄(岁)	290	59.36	11.66	29	89
性别	291	0.50	0.50	0	1
受教育程度	289	2.09	0.99	1	5
务农年数(a)	288	33.64	17.12	1	70
经营规模(亩)	291	8.13	30.62	0.03	500
销售占比	291	0.47	0.45	0	1
单位面积耕地农业年度纯利润(万元/亩)	265	0.42	1.35	0	20
地形因素	291	1.18	0.43	1	3

农民类型	本地农民	外来农民	合计
新型职业农民	16	65	81
非新型职业农民	8	0	8
合计	24	65	89

农民类型	年龄/岁	性别	文化程度	务农年数/a	经营规模/亩	销售占比	地形	单位面积耕地农业年度纯利润/(万元/亩)
本地职业农民	56	0.60	1.90	28.81	14.10	0.77	1.00	0.76
外来职业农民	49	0.70	2.44	18.65	16.96	0.96	1.11	0.74

Influence of commercialized production-oriented “new professional farmers” on the plastic tunnels transition: A case study in Nanjing City

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变量名	模型1		模型2		模型3
变量名	回归系数	大棚化种植的几率比	回归系数	大棚化种植的几率比	回归系数	大棚化种植的几率比
农民类型	2.769^***	15.941
外来农民					1.556^**	4.738
年龄	-0.081^*	0.922	-0.144^*	0.866	-0.064^**	0.937
性别	0.695	2.002	-0.185	0.831	0.696	2.005
受教育程度	-0.577^*	0.562	-0.323	0.724	-0.464^*	0.629
务农年数	0.014	1.014	0.060^*	1.062	0.003	1.002
经营规模	0.140^***	1.150	0.165^**	1.179	0.253^***	1.288
销售占比	1.756^**	5.787	0.219	1.245	2.508^***	12.277
地形因素	-1.784^**	0.168	-0.768	0.464	-2.229^***	0.108
单位面积耕地农业年度纯利润	0.158^**	1.171	2.098	8.148	0.204^***	1.226
常数项	2.986		6.974		2.278
样本数	263		84		263
Log pseudolikelihood	-51.594		-21.710		-56.265
Wald chi2(9)	91.210		20.130		62.400
Prob>chi2	<0.001		0.010		<0.001
Pseudo R²	0.684		0.292		0.655

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